The Patriot Files Forums - Hill Cool to Bush Immigration Plan

By Helen Dewar
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, January 11, 2004; Page A06

President Bush's proposal to give temporary legal status to millions of undocumented immigrants is running into stiff resistance from both left and right on Capitol Hill and stands little chance of enactment this year, according to supporters and opponents.

While this assessment is based on early responses, with the lobbying effort barely begun, some lawmakers say the measure's only chance of passage this year would require an all-out push by the president, and even that might not be enough. Many liberal Democrats say the plan does not go far enough in helping immigrants attain U.S. citizenship. And many conservative Republicans, especially in the House, say it goes too far in rewarding foreigners who broke the law to enter the country.

In light of these divisions, consensus may be difficult if not impossible in the politically charged atmosphere of a presidential and congressional election year, congressional and other sources said.

Under the proposal, which has yet to be drafted in legislative form, an estimated 8 million undocumented immigrants in the United States would be eligible for temporary legal status for three years, renewable for an unspecified period, provided they are employed and Americans cannot be found for the jobs. Employers could bring in new workers under the same conditions. But these temporary workers would not automatically qualify for permanent residency status or citizenship, and Bush said he expects them to eventually return home.

It usually takes several years to pass major immigration bills, which are legally complex and politically sensitive. Moreover, they generally are drafted on a bipartisan basis, which is difficult in an election year.

Because of these factors, even GOP congressional leaders appear skeptical about prospects this year.

"Democrats are not going to want to give Bush a victory in an election year, and there is some significant opposition from conservative Republicans," a senior House Republican leadership aide said. "This makes it very difficult to do in an election year." The aide estimated as many as 50 House Republicans could vote against the proposal.

"It's something we're going to try to do, but it's going to be tough," said an aide to GOP leaders in the Senate, which is regarded as more open to liberalizing immigration rules.

Foes were even more dubious about prospects. "Based on the conceptual plan as laid out, it's highly unlikely it will ever see the light of day" in Congress, said Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-Calif.), an outspoken critic of Bush's proposal.

Only if Bush lobbies fervently for the proposal -- and is willing to expend some political capital during his campaign -- does it stand a chance of passage before the November elections, several congressional sources suggested in interviews last week. A more likely scenario, according to immigration strategists, is that one or both chambers may begin work on the proposal, but votes would be deferred.

"I would anticipate some very interesting hearings on the issue and some important preliminary action, but no action on the House and Senate floors until 2005," said Randel Johnson, a vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which favors the Bush proposal.

"Immigration reform is never easy," and this will be no exception, said Cecilia Mu?oz, vice president for policy with the National Council of La Raza, the nation's largest Hispanic civil rights group. "It all depends on how much political capital that Bush is prepared to invest in it."

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who sponsored a broader proposal but spoke favorably of Bush's initiative, also said that a major presidential push -- including a demand for action by August in next week's State of the Union message -- is essential for passage this year. "The administration sets the agenda," he said.

Some strategists in both parties believe Bush may be content to use the proposal in his reelection campaign to court Latino voters, rather than push it to a vote this year. But McCain said such a strategy could backfire. "The Hispanic community will have expectations raised," he said, "and if the Republican-dominated Congress can't act . . . it could be damaging to Republicans."

Mu?oz expressed a similar view. "I'm not sure the Latino electorate will buy nice ideas in the absence of action," she said.

So far, the White House has given little if any indication of how forcefully Bush would lobby for the proposal. In the past, the extent of his engagement has included a full-court press for tax cuts and considerably less involvement for other bills.

Nor is it clear how far Republican leaders in Congress would go in pushing for quick action. Democrats said they believe the issue does not enjoy a high priority with GOP leaders, in part because it is so divisive in their caucuses. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) has said he is optimistic about the bill's prospects. But House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), while stopping short of declaring opposition, said he had "heartfelt reservations" about a program that "seems to reward illegal behavior."

Democrats say they will offer an alternative, probably along the lines of a bipartisan bill being drafted by Senate Minority Leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.) and Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) that includes a path to permanent resident status.

Any new immigration bill must be bipartisan, a Senate Democratic aide said. "If it's only political, a lot of Democrats are going to be unwilling to make concessions," the aide said.