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Israel's Drill May Curb Iran Nuclear Effort, U.S. Official Says
By Ken Fireman, Janine Zacharia and Tony Capaccio
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...x5E&refer=home
June 21 (Bloomberg) -- An Israeli military exercise interpreted as a rehearsal for a strike on Iran will bolster a diplomatic drive to curb its nuclear program, a senior U.S. official said.
The American official, who spoke on condition he not be identified, said the June 2 drill by Israeli warplanes wasn't initiated or authorized by the U.S., which also didn't voice opposition after it was disclosed yesterday.
``We are clearly in a situation where the Israelis and United States are trying to bolster diplomacy but indicating there are other options,'' said Michael Eisenstadt, a defense analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
The U.S. official said the drill may increase pressure on Iranian leaders to meet United Nations demands for a suspension of uranium enrichment. Eisenstadt and other analysts agreed with that assessment.
``A message like this that comes at a time of diplomacy usually will help because it tends to concentrate the minds of everybody,'' said Daniel Kurtzer, the former U.S. ambassador to Israel, in an interview.
Russia's UN envoy, Vitaly Churkin, expressed a different view, saying that even the threat of military action might damage the diplomatic effort.
``If things happen like threats of force and unilateral sanctions outside the framework of the Security Council, it is distracting from the negotiating process,'' Churkin said yesterday. ``A military move would have devastating consequences for the prospect of resolving the Iranian nuclear issue, for the region and internationally.''
Iran's View
Iran insists its uranium enrichment work is peaceful and legal under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The aim of the effort is to create a commercial nuclear power industry, according to Iranian officials.
President George W. Bush supports offering economic incentives to Iran for cooperation while keeping up pressure through sanctions aimed at Iranian military commanders, arms buying and suspected front companies for the nuclear effort.
The Israeli exercise involved about 100 aircraft and included mid-air refueling missions, according to two U.S. defense officials who are familiar with the broad outlines of the Israeli operation.
The New York Times, which reported on the exercise yesterday, said the drill took place over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece. The newspaper, citing unidentified U.S. officials, said the refueling tankers and helicopters involved flew more than 900 miles, about the same distance between Israel and Iran's uranium enrichment plant at Natanz.
Possible Message
Analysts said the exercise was likely intended to signal to both Iran and the U.S. that an Israeli strike is possible if diplomacy is unsuccessful.
``They want to get us used to it, or at least not be totally surprised by it,'' said Michael O'Hanlon, a foreign- policy analyst at Washington's Brookings Institution. ``They want to be able to say they gave us warning. And they want to dissuade Iran as well. It's also battlefield training. It's all these things simultaneously.''
Anthony Cordesman, an analyst at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the scope of the exercise made it inevitable that it would be detected by other countries.
Visibility of Exercise
Israel might have concealed the operation if it had wanted to by breaking it up into smaller components, he said.
``You do something like this as much to send a signal as anything else,'' Cordesman said.
Kenneth Katzman, a Middle East analyst for the Congressional Research Service, said he perceived another Israeli purpose: influencing internal U.S. deliberations.
``Israel is likely trying to strengthen those in the administration who favor military action against Iran's program,'' Katzman said an in e-mailed response to questions.
He said such officials, whom he didn't name, ``are arguing that only the United States can inflict the comprehensive and sustained damage on Iran's program that is ultimately needed, and that the United States must act before Israel does.''
A decision to actually strike Iran is one that Israel won't take lightly, Cordesman said. There is no certainty that an attack would cripple the Iranian program, he said. And Iran has ample means of retaliating through its proxies, the Islamic militias Hezbollah and Hamas.
`Heavy Blow'
A senior Iranian cleric, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, said yesterday his country would respond to an Israeli attack with a ``heavy blow.''
Kurtzer said the exercise wasn't unusual for Israel and doesn't signal an inevitable strike, something he said even hard-line Israelis are wary of. ``Nobody's anxious to have to exercise that option,'' he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, in an interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel, said there are ``many areas'' in which his country might act to curb the Iranian nuclear program: ``economic, political, diplomatic and military.''
Asked if Israel might act alone, Olmert said: ``I think it's well known to the world what Israel is capable of doing. I don't have to go further into details.''
In 1981 Israeli warplanes bombed an Iraqi reactor complex suspected of a being part of a weapons program. In September, Israel struck a Syrian facility that the U.S. said was a nuclear site being built with North Korean help.
Bunker Bombs
The U.S. Congress approved three years ago the sale to Israel of 100 laser-guided, 5,000-pound ``bunker-buster'' bombs. Many Iranian nuclear facilities may be located underground to make strikes against them more difficult.
News of the Israeli exercise broke just days after a new initiative from the UN, U.S. and European Union offering Iran fresh incentives in return for suspending uranium enrichment. Iran says it is studying the proposal.
The UN Security Council has approved three rounds of sanctions against Iran for its failure to halt uranium enrichment, a process used for making fuel for civilian energy or a bomb. The U.S. and European allies accuse Iran of trying to develop a bomb or the knowledge to make one.
Crude oil rose yesterday following news reports of the Israeli exercise. Crude for July delivery rose $2.69, or 2 percent, to settle at $134.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tony Capaccio in Washington at
acapaccio@bloomberg.net; Ken Fireman in Washington at
kfireman1@bloomberg.netJanine Zacharia in Washington at
jzacharia@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: June 20, 2008 18:58 EDT