Trump Is at a Crossroads on Afghanistan, He Should Choose Wisely

[Boats]

Trump Is at a Crossroads on Afghanistan, He Should Choose Wisely
By Tom Luongo 8-9-17
RE: http://russia-insider.com/en/politic...wisely/ri20643

Trump's Afghanistan decision hangs in the air. Will he follow the deep state into a deeper quagmire, or work with Russia and China to extricate himself from the mess?

The next phase of the battle in Central Asia has already begun. For months now a plan has been forming to reconcile the Pakistani government, the Afghan government in Kabul and the Taliban to bring about some semblance of order to the country by driving ISIS recruiters out and cutting down the heroin trade.

That plan is opposed by the U.S. Deep State because it is the long-term lynch pin to the success of China’s One Belt, One Road project and China’s $56 billion investment into Pakistan known as the China Pakistan Economic Corridor.

The ouster by the Supreme Court of Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif puts any further negotiations on hold for the next year until a new leader of Pakistan’s civilian government can be elected.

Pakistan was being actively elevated by Russia and China to take the lead in the dialogue, much to the consternation of India, because it must. As neighbors, they have the most to gain from coordination of policy.

In doing this, however, it is elevating the civilian government in international relations at the expense of the powerful Pakistani military who have strong ties with Saudi Arabia. With Sharif’s refusal to assist the Saudis in their disastrous war in Yemen or support their diplomatic isolation of Qatar, it really was a matter of time before the military made a move behind the scenes to throw the civilian government into turmoil.

So far, there seems to be little upheaval at the political level. The parliament moved quickly to elect an interim Prime Minister from Sharif’s own PML-N Party, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. But this will set back the negotiations between Islamabad and Kabul.

Moreover, Russia has opened up dialogues with both the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and the Taliban in order to seek an alliance between them. Now, the question is how much farther are U.S. military and intelligence assets willing to push things while they have the President boxed in on all sides in the White House?

To his credit, President Trump and his Secretaries of State and Defense have slashed funding to Pakistan’s military, thus putting it on notice to allow the civilian government to take more control of the situation.

Budget proposals call for just $100 million in aid, and then only in the form of loans, rather than direct subsidies.

In addition, Trump has ordered a full review of the US’ deployment in Afghanistan. And, at this point the entire thing is up in the air. Trump is leery of expanding the operation because sixteen years of fighting the Taliban has yielded nothing except more regional chaos and a booming global narcotics trade.

If his military advisers like neocon nutcase H.R. McMaster can’t give him a satisfactory answer Trump can and likely will do what he did to the CIA’s program arming rebels in Syria. Defund it with the stroke of a pen.

Also, if he wants to throw a bone to a very angry and disappointed Vladimir Putin he would pull out of Afghanistan and allow Russia, China, et al. to work together in dismantling the crown jewel in Zbigniew Brzezinski’s policy of Asian chaos.

A coupled viewer(s) commented on this posting: (See below)

1. Afghanistan is too strategic a location for US to as much as consider to withdraw. Even current budgetary constraints, which Trump is attempting to address, will not convince Pentagon to leave the country. Especially in light of evolving situations with regards to Russia, China, Iran, all of whom can be destabilized from Afghanistan.

Besides, Trump no longer decides much anyway. He now heavily relies on military as his only foundation of political stability. Whatever they say, he will likely do.

I would even submit that his latest North Korean rant was influenced by close relationship with his military staff

2. This is a well-written, thoughtful post. My best guess is that Trump will demand a path to victory from the military because he is too vain to allow four or eight more years of Obama's stalemate on his record. When the military does not, because it cannot, supply Trump with such a scenario I think he will cut his losses, despite the huge economic potential (minerals) and the ability to block or slow down some of One Belt One Road. Trump has a history of backing off from business deals where he lacks leverage. He has already exhibited this trait in Syria; I predict we will again see it regarding both Afghanistan and N Korea.

My Thoughts are we've been there long enough! If we can't get it done in 17 years what makes you think it won't be another 5 years or longer. The country is in a shambles and the war has taken its toll in the lives of the locals and we see no real leadership from the ones who want to run this country. Our good intentions seem wasted along with our American lives given for a cause that seems to have no end. Just stating the facts guys!