Explainer: Why Turkey's Erdogan finally initiated Sweden’s NATO ratification

[Boats]

Explainer: Why Turkey's Erdogan finally initiated Sweden’s NATO ratification
By: Barin Kayaoglu - Al-Monitor News 10-28-23
Re: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals...o-ratification

Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sent Sweden’s NATO accession to the Turkish parliament, ratification may not be a done deal, as Turkish officials say domestic developments in Turkey and Sweden could still complicate the final step.

After more than a year of objections, Erdogan submitted the proposal to the parliament earlier this week. According to a well-placed Turkish source in Ankara who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, the submission had initially been planned for early October, but was delayed after a suicide bombing at the headquarters of Turkey’s national security directorate by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The attack, which left two police officers wounded and the two assailants dead, took place hours before the new legislative session started at the Turkish parliament, about 300 meters away.

With many Turks still accusing the United States and European Union countries of being aligned with the PKK’s Syrian offshoot within the anti-ISIS coalition, submitting the Swedish proposal to the parliament would have looked bad for Erdogan. Also, US forces shot down a Turkish drone in northern Syria on Oct. 5 during large-scale Turkish airstrikes in response to the Ankara attack, adding insult to injury.

“If we are still open to submitting the Swedish case to the parliament at such a time, everyone should be grateful,” the Turkish source told Al-Monitor.

The timing also relates to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war and Erdogan’s apparent efforts to strike a balance between pro-Palestine sentiment, which is particularly strong in his base, and Western capitals’ tempers toward his government.

Far from 'done deal'

As the unconditional support of many Western countries for Israel after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks angered many Turks, Erdogan took a pro-Hamas tone earlier this week, labeling the Islamist organization “freedom fighters” and “mujahedeen” who are struggling to liberate Palestine. By forwarding Sweden’s NATO application while dialing up his criticism of Israel and its Western supporters, the Turkish president has been likely trying to walk a tightrope.

The source who spoke to Al-Monitor cautioned that Turkish ratification is far from a done deal, pointing out that it still requires a vote in the parliament, where Erdogan’s ruling coalition holds the majority. The process is littered with challenges, the source noted.

One of them involves Ankara’s request before the US Congress to purchase new F-16 fighter jets and modernization kits to upgrade the Turkish air force. Although Turkey applied for the F-16s in late 2021 — before Russia's invasion of Ukraine changed Sweden’s stance on NATO — Congress and the Biden administration tied the sale of the airplanes to Ankara’s ratification of the Swedish bid in May 2022. The Turkish side would likely seek a firm commitment from Washington regarding the F-16s before it ratifies Sweden's NATO accession.

Will Stockholm play by Turkey's rules?

Domestic developments in Sweden, where multiple Quran-burning protests as well as demonstrations against Erdogan’s government have taken place, also have the potential to derail ratification.

Another well-placed Turkish source in Ankara who also spoke on condition of anonymity said, “For a smooth ratification, another stupid episode must not take place in Sweden,” in reference to these protests. “Ratification at the Turkish parliament will take place at its own pace and in line with its own dynamic,” he told Al-Monitor.

In a bid to address Turkey’s national security concerns, Sweden amended its counterterrorism laws and constitution, cracking down on individuals and groups that Ankara deems a national security threat. The source gave modest praise to Swedish authorities for confronting their “ecosystem” of local gangs and organized crime networks.

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Sweden and its eastern neighbor, Finland, dropped their decades-old neutrality and applied to join the North Atlantic alliance. While most NATO allies were on board in regard to both countries becoming members — most NATO countries are EU members like the two Nordic states — the Erdogan administration was more supportive of the Finns. Earlier this spring, Erdogan forwarded the Finnish application to the Turkish parliament and quickly secured ratification. Helsinki joined the alliance as its 31st member on April 4.

Sweden’s case, however, became mired in controversy, with the Turkish side blaming Stockholm for its perceived indifference to its security concerns. For years, Ankara accused Swedish authorities of tolerating the activities of PKK sympathizers on their territory. Turkey, the United States and many EU countries list the PKK as a terrorist organization.

[Tags: EU-Mideast ties - Israeli-Palestinian Conflict - NATO & Russia-Ukraine crisis]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal note: I'm surprised are you?