China-US close encounters ‘raise conflict risk in South China Sea’

[Boats]

China-US close encounters ‘raise conflict risk in South China Sea’
By: Minnie Chan - South China Morning Star - 06-16-20
Re: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/mili...20Bird%20Brief

* Warships from both countries came within 100m of each other in April, Chinese military insider says

* Washington and Beijing need to find a way to stop such incidents escalating and going out of control, maritime analyst says

China and the US are running the risk of conflict and should come up with a way to manage such crises as their warships engage in close encounters in the South China Sea, according to maritime strategy specialists.

A Chinese military insider said that in one incident in April, vessels from both nations came as close as 100 metres of each other.

“That kinds of incidents indicate a lack of political trust between the two militaries,” the insider said, declining to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

The source did not specify which warships were involved in the encounter.

Beijing and Washington have competed to deploy more warships to the region since crews on the American Pacific-based aircraft carriers the USS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Nimitz were hit by the coronavirus in late March, while the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s carriers, the Liaoning and the Shandong, were apparently unaffected.

Video links: https://www.youtube.com/6861373a-25a...3-f06d74183d16
https://youtu.be/ojnAn-LS_Mk

Hu Bo, director of the Centre for Maritime Strategy Studies at Peking University, said the new US deployments included the USS America amphibious assault ship. The PLA Navy also deployed a similar number of vessels, Hu said.

He said the United States made the new deployments because it was concerned that China might take advantage of the “power vacuum” in the South China Sea resulting from the coronavirus outbreak on the two carriers.

He said both sides remained largely professional and restrained in the April encounter, but there was a risk that such incidents could result in a miscalculation and escalate into military conflict.

“This kind of provocative behaviour was totally driven by political needs aimed at showing force and demonstrating strength, but that can become an accident,” he said, adding that there could be parties with the US military aiming to create a small-scale and “controllable” conflict with their Chinese counterparts.

“However, how can you predict and control the consequences of a war?”

It is not the first time the two navies have had a close encounter. In October 2018, aerial photos taken by the US Navy showed a Chinese destroyer moved within 41 metres of and almost collided with the USS Decatur destroyer during a tense face-off in the South China Sea.

Hu said the two countries should come up with an effective crisis management mechanism to deal with such incidents.

Video link: https://youtu.be/Ls-wjJJLAEc

Collin Koh, a research fellow with the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, based at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said both sides should document such incidents to show what happened, including with photos and radar feeds.

“[It is] definitely unprofessional if any warship tries to get this close. Though I wonder why the Chinese side even allowed that to happen,” Koh said.

Lu Li-Shih, a former instructor at the naval academy in Taiwan, said both sides should be blamed for letting such incidents occur.

“All naval ships should implement a naval code for unplanned encounters at sea to avoid conflict,” Lu said, adding that officers should have the training and equipment on board to make sure the encounters did not take place.

“Warships should only be within 100 metres for refuelling or training ... Such a risky move happens when both sides do it deliberately.”

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Video link: https://youtu.be/ojnAn-LS_Mk

About this writer: Minnie Chan is an award-winning journalist, specialising in reporting on defence and diplomacy in China. Her coverage of the US EP-3 spy plane crash with a PLA J-8 in 2001 near the South China Sea opened her door to the military world. Since then, she has had several scoops relating to China's military development. She has been at the Post since 2005 and has a master's in international public affairs from The University of Hong Kong.

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Personal note: Sooner or later there will be an incident at sea and where it goes from there depends on how each side decides to go. Meanwhile the cat & mouse games are getting more and more. Just tempting the other to engage - then what!

Boats