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Old 06-18-2019, 01:05 PM
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Arrow Turkey’s Membership in NATO Could be Ending Soon

Turkey’s Membership in NATO Could be Ending Soon
By: Harut Sassounian - ASBAREZ - 6-18-19
RE: http://asbarez.com/181693/turkeys-me...e-ending-soon/

On June 6, Patrick Shanahan, Acting Defense Secretary of the United States, sent a harsh letter to his counterpart, Hulusi Akar, Turkey’s Minister of Defense. Shanahan threatened to end Turkey’s participation in the most advanced U.S. air force jet F-35 program and to implement sanctions, should Turkey persist in acquiring S-400 missiles from Russia next month. The Russian missiles are incompatible with NATO’s weapons system and risk to compromise the F-35 jets operations, thus jeopardizing U.S. national security.

Turkish President Erdogan has repeatedly rejected U.S. complaints and insisted on acquisition of the Russian missiles, for which Turkey has signed a $2.5 billion loan agreement with Russia. Several Turkish military officers are already in Russia, learning how to operate the new missiles. In the meantime, the United States has informed Turkey that, Turkish pilots who had been training on the F-35 jets in the United States for several months have to depart from the country by July 31.

Acting Secretary of Defense Shanahan’s letter sent shock waves into Turkey’s foreign policy and security establishment as Turkey doesn’t yet know “how to reply,” a senior Turkish security source told Al-Monitor. In the meantime, Turkey had paid over a billion dollars to acquire 100 F-35 jets. Erdogan announced that he will demand the payment back from the United States. Furthermore, Turkey, as a partner in the F-35 program, has been producing certain parts of the jets which will no longer be sourced from Turkey.

Shanahan wrote to Turkey’s Defense Minister: “All actions taken on the F-35 are based on risks the S-400 presence in Turkey would have and they are separate from Russia-related Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act sanctions. There is strong bipartisan U.S. Congressional determination to see CAATSA sanctions imposed on Turkey, if Turkey acquires the S-400. In addition to threatening the security of platforms like the F-35, Turkey’s procurement of the S-400 will hinder your nation’s ability to enhance or maintain cooperation with the United States and within NATO, lead to Turkish strategic and economic over-dependence on Russia, and undermine Turkey’s very capable defense industry and ambitious economic development goals. Pursuing this path will cause a loss in jobs, gross domestic product, and international trade. President Trump committed to boost bilateral trade from $20 billion currently to more than $75 billion; however that may be challenging if the United States imposes CAATSA sanctions.”

On June 14, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu threatened that Turkey will retaliate to U.S. sanctions: “One country cannot give instructions to another on how to act. The U.S. should abandon this behavior. Everyone is concerned about this. How far can it go? If the U.S. takes steps against us, then we will be forced to take reciprocal steps,” he stated in an interview with NTV channel.

What are the next steps? Erdogan has learned from previous experiences that Trump does not always listen to his Cabinet members, or to members of Congress. Erdogan has had several phone conversations to convince Trump to form a joint study group which will buy time for Turkey. In the meantime, naturally-occurring or artificially-created world events may change the present situation. The Presidents of Turkey and the United States are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Tokyo at the end of June. That would be Erdogan’s last chance to persuade Trump to change his decision on the Russian missile acquisition in July.

If unable to change Trump’s mind, Erdogan will go ahead and acquire the Russian missiles in order to avoid being humiliated by the United States. However, that would only be the beginning of a larger conflict! The United States would impose sanctions on Turkey, seriously damaging its economy. Erdogan could retaliate by banning NATO from using the Incirlik air base in Turkey. The United States would then relocate its jets to Jordan (as Germany has done) or Greece (a NATO member) or Cyprus.

This vicious cycle of punches and counter punches could end up by either Turkey withdrawing from NATO or NATO deciding to expel Turkey.

The removal of Turkey from NATO is a step that has been anticipated for a long time, ever since Erdogan has been acting contrary to the letter and spirit of the NATO agreement. Even though expelling Turkey from NATO is a serious decision fraught with major consequences, Erdogan is the cause by repeatedly violating Turkey’s commitments to NATO and ignoring all its warnings.

The obvious winner in this situation will be Russia, which will succeed in weakening NATO by excluding Turkey—the country with the second largest military in NATO—while earning from the sale of the missiles desperately needed income for its collapsed economy.

However, Russia’s success may be short-lived. As soon as a geopolitical conflict arises between Russia and Turkey, the newly-formed love-fest will fall apart, putting an end to Turkish acrobatic moves between East and West, and getting abandoned by both!

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Personal note: I foresee NATO losing more and more countries. Why is that? The three biggest arms dealers (Russia, China and the US) selling missiles to just about anyone nowadays.

Over the years many countries have a mixture of US/China and Russia missiles. Who's to say that any one of these countries could inturn shoot at either side depending on the issues of the day. It seems nobody trust anyone anymore. In securities are rampid.

I would hope that we have military satellites circumventing the world - that could trigger a signal that could make these weapons self-explode prematurely - if launched - thus resulting in no target damage? I'm insecure knowing how many weapons like these are all over this world that could be used at any time - should one decide to just launch one. If safeguards were programed or built into these weapons then maybe a satellite signal could send a self-destruct signal - and automatically explode the weapon before reaching it's intended target.

This all sounds great - but would it also put contaminates into the air-stream causing more airborne pollutants and chemicals into our atmosphere.

The world we live on is the only one we have. To continue to hurt our environment by using such weapons - will also impact the worlds warming and poison its people and any living organisms and compound the current environmental issues.

Why don't we just go bare knuckles and physically beat the crap out of each other rather than destroying the only world we have to live on. I can't understand the minds of those in power - if they just don't look down the road far enough to know that all humanity is at risk - not just the power plays they exercise.

We have one planet and that's it. It's already under duress from global warming and you want to sell these weapons to turn a profit!? Parley? What ever happen to compromise & talking out the issues. Rather than destroying the only world we have? The next great war will be the last one for all peoples - and if any survive - it will be back to the stone age for sure.

Boats
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Boats

O Almighty Lord God, who neither slumberest nor sleepest; Protect and assist, we beseech thee, all those who at home or abroad, by land, by sea, or in the air, are serving this country, that they, being armed with thy defence, may be preserved evermore in all perils; and being filled with wisdom and girded with strength, may do their duty to thy honour and glory; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

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