Cold shoulder has a cost

[MORTARDUDE]

http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/weston.html


March 23, 2003
Cold shoulder has a cost
By GREG WESTON -- Sun Media
It was one of those moments so politically hyper-sensitive, so diplomatically crucial, that the ordinarily free-wheeling Jean Chretien somberly and carefully read the three paragraphs verbatim from a prepared text, announcing to the Commons last week that Canada would not support a U.S. invasion of Iraq.

The raw message to the Americans was perilous enough: Canada was giving a cold shoulder to its only neighbour, closest ally and largest trading partner.

Then, with millions of Americans watching live on CNN, the daft seals of the Liberal backbenches (with a few exceptions) leapt to their feet in unison, clapping and cheering on the government's decision to boot the world's most powerful president in the groin.

Exactly what was going through so many Liberal minds at that moment may well have been nothing at all.

Finance Minister John Manley, for one, watched it all with the look of someone who had just gulped sour milk, disdain for the ill-timed theatrics of his colleagues evident on his face as he tried to motion them to sit down and shut up.

As Canada's chief political liaison and goodwill merchant with the Americans on security and co-operation since 9/11, Manley knew the danger of Chretien's announcement on Iraq was as much in the optics as in its substance.

It was one thing for Canada to be sitting out the Iraq conflict on a matter of foreign-policy principle and domestic politics.

It was quite another to be giving George Bush the parliamentary equivalent of a middle-finger salute on live television.

It got worse. As the week wore on, Manley and other senior Liberals were scrambling to stifle a wave of gratuitous anti-American commentary from within their own ranks, including a stunning (and truly stunned) attack on Bush by Natural Resources Minister Herb Dhaliwal.

That Canada will ultimately pay a price for so much childish rock-tossing at Uncle Sam seems certain.

The big question is what, exactly, the punishment will be.

Listening to opposition MPs, one would think the U.S. is about to declare the Yankees will have no truck nor trade with Canada, shutting down our economy and inflicting misery across the land. At the other end of the spectrum, the prime minister would have us believe nothing has changed.

Asked whether he thought the Americans would retaliate against Canada, Chretien said: "I am sure they are disappointed ... But they are not surprised ... You know they want to maintain good relations with us.

"In terms of our trade relations ... what we're selling to them, most of it they buy because they need it, not because they want to be nice. And it's the same thing for us."

The most likely future of Canada-U.S. relations lies somewhere between the opposition doomsday and Chretien's rose garden.

Foreign intelligence experts, for instance, say Canada's decision to stay out of the Iraq conflict could harm anti-terrorism efforts in this country as U.S. agencies become increasingly reluctant to share sensitive information with their Canadian counterparts.

Suffer a hit

The Canadian defence industries, which rely on the U.S. military for billions of dollars a year in business, may also suffer a hit in the short term if the Americans decide to put their money where their allies are on Iraq.

There may even be some lasting slowdowns at the border, but more because of heightened U.S. security concerns than any kind of retaliation against Canada.

As one senior trade official puts it: "Any kind of (trade) disruptions are going to hurt both countries domestically, and the Bush administration isn't about to inflict pain on its own economy (as retaliation) for Canada's position on Iraq. It's ridiculous."

The most likely repercussions will be the least predictable -- the phone call not returned, the high-level meeting cancelled without explanation.

Otherwise, senior officials involved in the highest levels of Canada-U.S. relations describe discussions between the two administrations over the past week as cordial.

"Those in senior and responsible positions in the Bush administration certainly understood the different political culture we have here," a senior Canadian official told me last week.

"They understand the need to manage your domestic constituency -- in fact, American politicians understand that better than anyone else."

And what, exactly, were the domestic political considerations driving Canada's decision to abandon the United States on the road to Baghdad?

"First and foremost, at the risk of stating the obvious, Quebec -- they (Quebecers) just don't see themselves as part of this (Iraq) conflict. The Americans understand."

Lucky for us.