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Old 01-29-2021, 05:27 AM
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Arrow Desperate To Avoid a Bloody Beach-Assault, Chinese Troops Could Try Sneaking Into Tai

Desperate To Avoid a Bloody Beach-Assault, Chinese Troops Could Try Sneaking Into Taiwan
By: David Axe - Forbes Staff Writer - Forbes News - 01-29-21
Re: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=a8f34085ac91

Photo link: https://specials-images.forbesimg.co...114&cropY2=489
An H-6 bomber. TAIWANESE DEFENSE MINISTRY

A mass bomber sortie by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force on Jan. 23 hinted at one way the People’s Liberation Army could initiate an invasion of Taiwan.

Chinese rockets would rain down on Taiwanese defenses while PLA Special Operations Forces sabotaged infrastructure and targeted key Taiwanese officials for assassination.

Bombers would take advantage of the chaos to lob their own missiles, further suppressing Taiwan’s defenders as Chinese paratroopers and amphibious troops stormed the island.

But one expert doubts that China would risk this kind of direct, conventional assault. Bernard Cole, a professor at the U.S. National War College in Washington, D.C., said a sneak-attack is more likely.

Yes, rockets and commandos might attack first. After that initial wave of attacks, the PLA could switch to unconventional methods. “I see the primary PLA effort to be SOF and missiles,” Cole said. “And I don’t think a large-scale, John-Wayne-charges-up-the-beach amphibious assault will be used.”

“It’s much easier, in my view, to embark troops in large container ships flying third-country flags to moor in Kaohsiung [in southern Taiwan] and Keelung [in northern Taiwan] ... and perhaps that day’s ‘commercial’ flights from the mainland to various Taiwan airports.”

This sideways entry into Taiwan would mitigate the risk to Chinese assault forces from Taiwanese sea mines, submarines, anti-ship missiles and beach-defenses including rocket-launchers and tanks.

If they succeeded in disembarking from disguised container ships and commercial planes, Chinese troops wouldn’t have fight their way to Taiwan’s cities. They’d already be there.

This isn’t fan-fiction on Cole’s part. The PLA has thought through just such a sneak-attack. In 2008, Taiwan’s Military Intelligence Bureau discovered a Chinese plan to slip troops into northern Taiwan.

Ian Easton, a military expert with the Project 2049 Institute in Virginia, summarized the plan. It would begin with a PLA training exercise justifying a wide-scale mobilization of Chinese forces.

“Troops would then clandestinely load aboard civilian ferries and roll-on/roll-off ships which regularly ply the waters between China and Taiwan,” Easton wrote. “On the date of the planned ‘exercise’ these ships would put to sea and steam toward Taiwan, taking pains to avoid tipping their hand until the last moment.”

“When they reached the port of Taipei, the ostensibly civilian ships would disgorge mechanized infantry and tanks,” Easton continued. These troops would crush local defenders and secure landing zones for reinforcements.

Meanwhile, the PLA would continue launching rockets and targeting Taiwanese leaders while also hacking Taiwanese communications networks. “In addition, the plan reportedly envisioned storming the Penghu Islands, keeping Taiwanese units in central and southern parts of the island occupied and unable to reinforce Taipei.”

But Easton for one is skeptical the sneak-attack would work. “It would be almost impossible for the PLA to pull-off such a daring operation,” he wrote. “The plan could only work if China caught Taiwan by surprise.”

Surprise is getting harder to pull off. Taiwan’s surveillance capabilities are improving—driven in part by the island country’s acquisition of longer-range land-attack missiles that require over-the-horizon targeting.

And Taiwan’s not alone. U.S. forces also monitor PLA movements.

In the event Chinese troops do sneak ashore, Taiwanese commanders aim to counterattack. “They moved the elite 66th Marine Brigade to the hills outside the capital, ready to pounce on any Chinese landings at the Port of Taipei,” Easton noted. Other Taiwanese units have staged at key locations in order to block sneak landings.

“A flash invasion of Taiwan is improbable,” Easton concluded. Which is not to say Taiwan’s defenders can relax. “Reunifiying” the island country with mainland China is the main aim of Beijing’s foreign policy—and the driving force behind the PLA’s relentless modernization.

A sneak-attack might be tough to pull off. But that doesn’t mean China is giving up on conquering Taiwan.

About this writer: David Axe - I'm a journalist, author and filmmaker based in Columbia, South Carolina.
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