Russia sent a massive naval armada to Syria — and looks to be readying to fight the U

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Russia sent a massive naval armada to Syria — and looks to be readying to fight the US
BY: Alex Lockie 8-28-18 8 min. ago
RE: https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...18-8?r=UK&IR=T

Russia has positioned a considerable naval armada in the Mediterranean near Syria after accusing the US of plotting a false flag chemical weapons attack in the country.

International investigators link Syria's Moscow-backed government as carrying out dozens of deadly chemical weapons attacks on civilians, but Russia accuses US-linked forces of secretly conducting these same attacks.

But Russia's massive navy buildup in the Syria can't actually stop the US from attacking.
If Russia did counter attack US Navy ships firing on Syria, the US would likely crush them in short order.

Instead, Russia will probably just keep up the propaganda effort, which includes ship deployments.

Russia has positioned a considerable naval armada in the Mediterranean near Syria after accusing the US of plotting a false flag chemical weapons attack in rebel-held areas — and it looks like they're preparing for war with the US.

Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov recently said the US has built up its naval forces in the Mediterranean as it is "once again preparing major provocations in Syria using poisonous substances to severely destabilize the situation and disrupt the steady dynamics of the ongoing peace process."

But the Pentagon denied on Tuesday any such buildup, calling Russia's claims "nothing more than propaganda," and warning that the US military was not "unprepared to respond should the President direct such an action," CNN's Ryan Browne reported. Business Insider reviewed monitors of Mediterranean maritime traffic and found only one US Navy destroyer reported in the area.

The same naval monitors suggest Russia may have up to 17 ships in the region with submarines on the way.

International investigators have linked Syria's government to more than 100 chemical weapons attacks since the opening of the Syrian Civil war, and Russia has frequently made debunked claims about the perpetrators of, or existence of chemical attacks in the country.

Anna Borshchevskaya, an Russian foreign policy expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Business Insider that Moscow is possibly alleging a US false flag to help support a weak Syrian government in cracking down on one of the last rebel strongholds, for which chemical attacks have become a weapon of choice.

"Using chemical weapons terrorizes civilians, so raising fear serves one purpose. It is especially demoralizing those who oppose [Syrian President Bashar] Assad," Borshchevskaya told Business Insider. Borshchevskaya said Assad may look to chemical weapons because his conventional military has weakened under seven years of conflict.

Since President Donald Trump took office, the US has twice attacked Syria in response to what it called incontrovertible evidence of chemical attacks on civilians. Trump's White House has warned that any further chemical weapons attacks attributed to the Syrian government will meet with more strikes.

Looks like war

This time, Russia looks like it's up to more than simply conducting a public relations battle with the US. Russia's navy buildup around Syria represents the biggest since Moscow kicked off its Syrian intervention with its sole aircraft carrier in 2015.

But even with its massive naval presence, Omar Lamrani, a military analyst at Stratfor, a geopolitical consulting firm, told Business Insider Moscow doesn't stand a chance of stopping a US attack on Syria.

"Physically the Russians really can't do anything to stop that strike," said Lamrani. "If the US comes in and launches cruise missiles," as it has in past strikes, "the Russians have to be ideally positioned to defend against them, still won't shoot down all of them, and will risk being seen as engaging the US," which might cause US ships to attack them.

Lamrani pointed out that in all previous US strikes in Syria, the US has taken pains to avoid killing Russian servicemen and escalating conflict between the US and Syrians to conflict between the world's two greatest nuclear powers.

"Not because the US cannot wipe out the floatillia of vessels if they want to," said Lamrani, but because the US wouldn't risk sparking World War III with Russia over Syria's government gassing its civilians. "To be frank, the US has absolute dominance" in the Mediterranean, and Russia's ships won't matter, said Lamrani.

"The US would use its overwhelming airpower in the region and every singe Russian vessel on the surface will turn into a hulk in a very short time," if Russian ships engaged the US, said Lamrani.

So instead of an epic naval and aerial clash, expect Russia to stick to its real weapon fo modern war: Propaganda.

The US will likely avoid striking most of Syria's most important targets as Russian forces integrated there raise the risk of escalation, and Russia will likely then call the limited US strike a failure, as they have before.

Russia has made dubious and falsifiable claims about its air defenses in Syria, and could continue down that path as a way of saving face after the US, once again, strikes its Syrian ally as if Russia's forces inspired no fear.

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RUSSIA SENDS LARGEST FORCE TO SYRIA AS U.S. PREPARES FOR ATTACK, REPORTS SAY
BY: TOM O'CONNOR ON 8/28/18 AT 12:08 PM
RE: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-send...3185?piano_t=1

Russia has reportedly deployed to Syria its largest naval contingent since its entrance to the conflict, as the U.S. escalated its rhetoric about an upcoming potential chemical weapons attack that Washington has warned would result in military action.

As tensions between the U.S. and Moscow in Syria continued to spiral, Russian newspaper Izvestiya reported Tuesday that Russia had sent an unprecedented grouping of 10 ships, mostly armed with Kalibr cruise missiles, and two submarines to the eastern Mediterranean—with more naval assets on the way—in response to an apparent U.S. military buildup in the region.

Russia's Kommersant further reported that Moscow had mobilized two Tor-M2 surface-to-air missile defense systems in Syria and that the country's air defenses had been placed on high alert in anticipation of a potential U.S. assault, which the Russian Defense Ministry has said would come after a "false flag" chemical weapons attack staged by West-backed militants.

National Security Adviser John Bolton claimed last week that the U.S. military had received indications that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad—an ally of Russia and Iran—was planning to use chemical weapons in an upcoming campaign to retake the final Islamist-held province of Idlib. He also said that the U.S. would have a "strong response" if this proved true. While Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on reports that Bolton directly repeated this warning in talks with Russian officials Thursday, the Pentagon expressed its "concern at the potential for further—and illegal—use of chemical weapons" in Idlib.

"Russian reports of a U.S. military buildup in the Eastern Med are nothing more than propaganda," Pentagon spokesperson Eric Pahon said, according to Task & Purpose. "It’s not true. That does not mean, however, that we are unprepared to respond should the president direct such an action."

The Russian Defense Ministry's Russian Center for Reconciliation of Opposing Sides in Syria had warned Saturday that "Western countries are increasing the grouping of carriers of cruise missiles in the Middle East." It also added that "the destroyer USS Sullivans of the US Navy arrived in the Persian Gulf with 56 cruise missiles on board. And at the Al-Udeid Air Bases in Qatar, the strategic bomber B-1B of the US Air Force was redeployed with 24 cruise JASSM air-to-surface missiles."

The ministry underscored that "the West is ready once again to support terrorists and, in violation of all norms of international law, to commit an act of aggression against a sovereign state, which will inevitably cause another sharp deterioration of the situation in the Middle East region and a breakdown in the process of a peaceful settlement of the Syrian conflict."

Pahon also dismissed a recent report published Sunday by Russia's state-run RT network that alleged foreign specialists had been brought into Idlib to falsify a chemical weapons attack as a pretext for U.S. strikes. The U.S. has accused Syria of using toxic gas against opposition fighters and civilians throughout the course of a civil war that began with a 2011 rebellion backed by the West, Turkey and Gulf Arab states. Syria, joined by its Russian and Iranian allies, has denied any culpability in the use of such internationally banned tactics and has blamed local and international enemies for framing Assad.

U.S. and Russian armed forces are both active in Syria in support of rival missions. After initially sponsoring efforts to oust Assad in the wake of the rebel and jihadi uprising, the U.S. cut back support to an increasingly Islamist opposition and began bombing the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) after it took over half of Iraq and Syria in 2014. Russia entered the conflict a year later at Assad's request to help the Syrian leader overcome both ISIS and other forces trying to overthrow the government. Since then, he has retaken most of the country, leaving about a quarter in the hands of the U.S-backed, majority-Kurd Syrian Democratic Forces and pockets of ISIS and rebel influence—including Idlib, which is dominated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a jihadi coalition with links to Al-Qaeda.

President Donald Trump was a supporter of cutting aid to rebel groups in Syria and has pushed for greater cooperation with Russia in the conflict. Under his administration, however, the U.S. has twice attacked Syria in response to alleged chemical weapons attacks. In the lead-up to the latest attack in April, when French and U.K. forces for the first time joined a U.S.-led missile strike on Syrian government sites, the Russian military's top general and Moscow's ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Zasypkin warned that Russia could respond with force if its servicemen were threatened by Western strikes.

"You have seen our administration act twice on the use of chemical weapons," Defense Secretary James Mattis told reporters Tuesday at the Pentagon, according to The Washington Times. "I will assure you that the Department of State has been in active communication, recent active communication, with Russia to enlist them in preventing this. I’ll just leave it at that for right now. But communication is going on."

Photo link: https://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.new...8/rts1yy6y.jpg
The U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS The Sullivans and the Military Sealift Command joint high-speed vessel USNS Choctaw County transit through the Strait of Hormuz, August 8. Russia said the vessel's presence in the Middle East, along with other military assets, were signs of impending action against Syria.
LIEUTENANT DAPHNE WHITE/U.S. NAVY/REUTERS

Weighing in on the ongoing tensions, Daniel Davis, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and senior fellow at think tank Defense Priorities, told Newsweek on Monday that "There is absolutely nothing of value in Syria that warrants even the potential for a military clash between Washington and Moscow. We gain nothing by keeping troops in Syria—at all—and it would be in our national interests to withdraw them immediately."

That same day, Joshua Landis, head of the University of Oklahoma's Center for Middle East Studies and the blog "Syria Comment," told Newsweek that the ongoing war of words reminded him of the Syrian military campaign against the once-rebel-held Damascus suburb of Ghouta where "both sides accused the other of planning the use of chemical weapons" and "the rebels had reason to carry out a false flag operation, as the regime and Russians suggested, but the regime refused to let U.N. inspectors in to test for chemical weapons until after a lengthy delay, which was suspicious."

"There is a history of chemical use and particularly chlorine gas use by Syria as well," he added. "A similar situation leading up to the battle of Idlib is unfolding now. The Americans are warning Syria not to use chemical weapons or they will intervene and the Russians are countering that the US and Syrian opposition are planning a false flag operation in order to provide a pretext for the Americans to fire off cruise missiles and punish the Assad regime for launching its effort to retake Idlib province, the last independent enclave of Syrian rebels."

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Russia masses warships off Syria ahead of regime's final assault on Idlib
By: Raf Sanchez, middle east correspondent - 28 AUGUST 2018 • 7:11PM
RE: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...assault-idlib/

Russia is massing its naval forces in the Mediterranean ahead of an expected assault by the Assad regime on the last major rebel stronghold in Syria.

At least ten Russian warships and two submarines have been deployed to the eastern Mediterranean in the largest naval build up since Moscow’s intervention in Syria began in 2015, according to Russian media.

The gathering of Russian ships comes as Syrian regime forces turn their attention towards Idlib, a holdout rebel-held province on the border with Turkey.

Most of the Russian warships are armed with long-range Kalibr missiles, which could be used to attack ground targets in support of an Assad regime assault on Idlib.

The naval build up may also be intended to deter the US and its allies from intervening if Assad’s forces use chemical weapons in Idlib.

John Bolton, the US national security advisor, warned last week that the US would respond “very strongly” if the Syrian regime used chemical weapons again.

Days later, Russia’s defence ministry claimed it had evidence that jihadists in Idlib were planning to stage a chemical weapons attack in order to trick the Western into carrying out strikes against the regime.

The Russian build up in the Mediterranean comes as Russia announced plans to hold its biggest war games in four decades next month.

Sergei Shoigu, the defence minister, said the East-2018 exercise will take place in central and eastern Russia in September and will involve almost 300,000 troops, over 1,000 military aircraft, two of Russia's naval fleets, and all its airborne units.

The defence ministry said the exercise would be the biggest since the Soviet Union’s West-81 exercise in 1981. The Chinese and Mongolian militaries would also participate in the games, the ministry said.

Capturing Idlib would mark a crucial final stage in Bashar al-Assad’s ambitions to put down the rebellion which broke out against him in 2011.

But attacking the province, which is now home to 2.5 million civilians, many of them displaced from other areas, is likely to be more complex than previous assaults.

Russia is concerned about preserving its partnership with Turkey, which is deeply worried that an attack on Idlib will send millions of refugees heading towards its border.

The Russian defence ministry said Tuesday it was in contact with rebel groups in Idlib to discuss the possibility of a negotiated surrender.