Statistics Anyone?

[urbsdad6]

Forgive me if this has been discussed before, but I haven't delved into the archives to check. I woke up this morning curious about statistical analysis of the 9/11 events and the London Bombing. Understand I am not a statistician nor am I mathematican beyond figuring out that there is too much month left at the end of the money. For all intents and purposes this question is not meant to suggest any particular political leaning. With that said, here goes.

What are the odds that NORAD would be practicing a drill that very closely resembled the 9/11 scenario on the exact same day that 9/11 occurred and at the same time?


What are the odds that only Larry Siversteins buildings would be destroyed in the process even though the architect says they were each designed to withstand the impact of 2 707's, NYCFD tapes indicate the fires were under control and pictures show people standing in the affected areas that were supposedly so hot from fire that the steel melted and caused the collapse?

What are the odds that none of the surrounding structures across the street would be destroyed by collateral damge from the fall of the towers? (Buildings were damaged and fires occurred but easily controlled)

Lastly, what are the odds that a double bombing drill exactly like the the one that happened in London was being practiced on the same day at the same time those bombings occurred?

Again I am asking for someone with more expertise than myself to put it on the block for study/discussion and find out if these can be answered mathematically and whether or not they are statistically significant. I hope I have phrased the questions in a form that allows them to be studied from a statistical point.


Doc Urb

[urbsdad6]

Found an answer to part of my previous post. Although there is no indication about how the math was done or who did the math there is a link to the numbers relating to the number of grains of sand in the world and this is from that link:

http://www.miamisci.org/tripod/whysand.html

"So how many grains of sand are there in the world? You could start off by trying to guess how many grains of sand there are in a spoon of sand. Use a magnifying glass to count how many grains fit in a small section. Then, count how many of those sections fit in your spoon. Multiply the two numbers together to get an estimate.

Using this same principle, plus some additional information, mathematicians at the University of Hawaii tried to guess how many grains of sand are on the world's beaches. They came up with 7,500,000,000,000,000,000, or seven quintillion five quadrillion grains of sand."


This article and links from:

http://www.infowars.com/articles/Lon...coinciding.htm

Probability of 7/7 Drill and Attack Coinciding
Infowars.com | July 13, 2005

Comment:
This is absolutely mind boggling. The chances for these two events taking place at the same time, let alone in the same locations are astronomical (numbers so big we had to look up how to say them). And these estimates are within a very conservative five year mean. In other words, most statistical analysis that is designed to create the impression of a similarly incredible improbability is usually framed within a greater amount of time: 50 years since England began experiencing bombings, 130 years since the Tube first opened, etc. We don't need to frame these results in that way because the chance is so low that these events would ever occur simultaneously without some sort of intervention that one might go so far as to call it impossible.

Probability of 7/7 Drill and Attack Coinciding

LU Stations: 274
RELATED:
Explosions In London





Probability of one attack by hour (5yr mean): One chance in 9,474,920

Open Hours per Day: 19

Probability of 3 station terror hit (5yr mean):
One chance in 850,602,500,906,920,000,000

Open Days a Year: 364

Mean Sample frequent (yrs) 5 Probability of one attack by hour (10yr mean):
One chance in 18,949,840

Mean Sample frequent (yrs) 10 Probability of 3 station terror hit (10yr mean):
One chance in 6,804,820,007,255,360,000,000

Same Time 3

LU Stations: 274

Probability of drill on 1 stations per hour:
One chance in 817,342

Open Hours per Day: 19

Probability of drill on 3 stations per hour:
One chance in 546,023,643,432,766,000

Open Days a Year: 157

Same Time 3

PROBABILITY OF DRILL AND TERROR ATTACK COINCIDING BY CHANCE (10yr mean):
One chance in 3,715,592,613,265,750,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000

Estimate of Grains of sand in the whole world:
7,500,000,000,000,000,000

(http://www.miamisci.org/tripod/whysand.html)

In context: If I go to a beach, or a desert, or under the sea and pick a single grain of sand. What chance is there of you going to the same part of the world by chance and picking up the same grain? You are trillions of times more likely to do this that the London drill coinciding with this attack at that hour

I wonder why the media aren't reporting the drill??




Doc Urb

[Seascamp]

Legitimate statistics and probabilities always include a well-defined database, a data reduction algorithm that includes constants, variables and well defined ?fudge factors?, etc, and a defined result. If I?m inquiring about the future size of marbles and I get a future color of bananas answer, then the algorithm is screwed up or the database or both. To calculate the NORAD probability drill deal, I would need to know the history, frequency and duration of NORAD drills. The bigger I can populate the database, the more resolution I can get with a probability calculation, so I would want many, many historical events. Then I would need to know if these are scheduled drills or pop drills and what database population of each. Plus I would need to know if NORAD has an offline training simulator operating; which is highly likely, and of course this would skew the data all over the place because it could be that the training simulator is continuously booked and used to qualify and re qualify personnel. And I would expect this unless they?re goofing off.

Now I would assume that such information is highly classified and not available for public probability studies. So what we have left is a SWAG that can be made by anyone. My SWAG is that I have no clue, no way of getting a clue, and that is probably as good as gets from anyone on the outside looking in and unequipped with a thorough, accurate database and access to historical and current operational information.

Scamp

[urbsdad6]

Scamp good point, but if you think about it just as an ordinary person on the street doesn't it seem that the odds of these events occuring like they have would be a rather large number statistically speaking? I mean at least to me it would be something like what is the likelyhood of getting a win in the lotto if you just guessed random numbers. It has to be something at the far ends of the bell curve don't you think?

Doc Urb

[Seascamp]

Most people would have no reason or purpose to be into the mechanics of statistics or probabilities and wouldn?t know that an analysis after an event has a high degree of accuracy when it comes to connecting or un connecting seemingly related or unrelated events. That is well known hard science.
I hardly think NORAD went totally ?blind? for the sake of a drill but more likely certain sections or consoles switched over to a simulator or had some active ?bogie (s) ? out there juking and jiving around playing ?Ginger Bread man?. This is absolutely common and typical of any air defense organization I ever had direct knowledge of or heard about. I would be absolutely shocked to learn that NORAD went totally blind for the sake of a drill and don?t think it at all probable.

So no, not out there on the fringes of the bell curve at all unless there is zero reliable information or misinformation about how things really work. Nominally the FAA has front seat responsibility for monitoring and supervising commercial air traffic and no doubt NORAD has links and presentations and can intervene where necessary, so I?m having trouble seeing how the original proposition/question links up. I don?t think the FAA went blind but more likely went a bit panic mouse and confused on the morning of 9/11 and I certainly wouldn?t fault them for that one bit. There is no training or experience that can prepare a person for such an event.

Scamp