Iran

[39mto39g]

This is a Cut-N-Paste for a pretty good web site whos Forum site not only talks sence but don't even try to belittle each other. Refreshing.
The site is http://www.stratfor.com/

Disscusion Forum/Iran

With slightly more than 20 years experience in special operations, I have a different perspective than most on the world situation, the Middle East in particular.

Generally speaking, indigenous societies rail at the thought of actions by outside nations to intervene to create a ?better? country/society. Even when you save them from a hated foe, if your departure is not quick, elements of society begin to hate your presence. Guests of three days, like fish, begin to stink.

Europe and the US have been engaged in changing the Middle East and Africa for at least a 100 years through some form of intervention from colonialism to creating democracy. No amount of money or military will ever truly establish the US view of a utopian democracy in Iraq and the Middle East. Therefore, it is time to look to strategies that (a) provides a modicum of protection from terrorist acts committed by Islamist; (b) allows us access to the oil required for our energy needs; (c) provides a more stable Middle East and (d) provides a counter to the threats imposed by a resurgent Russia; an expanding China; a chaotic nuclear Pakistan and a growing economic giant India.

I suggest a very pragmatic approach. We should immediately change our policies with regard to Iran. We should encourage the very hegemony we are fighting to stop. We should provide them the respect we give other leader nations. We should encourage trade with the US and the establishment of Iranian industries to provide us with goods and services we desire. We should allow them to become a nuclear power.

This policy change would immediately impact Russia and China and their drive for increased world power status. By Iran being given full authority to challenge Russia in energy markets, Russia would no longer be able to operate monopolistically in Europe. By allowing and assisting the development of industry within Iran and other poor Middle East countries, the economic growth of China and India would be retarded to a more acceptable level. Terrorism and the potential threat of nuclear weapon misuse should lessen.

The agreement between the US and Iran must be unilateral. In return for allowing them the opportunity to seek economic and world power status, they must police the Middle East. They must totally curb terrorism, especially that directed at the west; negotiate reasonable living arrangements among the various national, tribal and religious interests with the aim of creating economic well being for all; and must respect the ?Israel of 1948? borders.

This policy change would immediately create much chaos in the Middle East as we pull out and Iran assumes responsibility for stabilizing the area. Minor armed conflicts would develop, however, the US should vow to allow Iran to work out the solutions. In the long run, a policy change of this magnitude would add to our national securit
END

This guy make way to much sence to come to this forum.

Ron

[SEATJERKER]

...

...geez, it's nice to dream by saying "let's play together, but you have to play nice now" after the bully has tried to take your milk money,...

...The playing field has been leveling out economically now for the last 10 years, and many other nations can be prosperous to the extent of rivaling the USSR, and then some, This is not just about economics,...

... But to hand over "the most powerful aspect of the scientific world" to a nation that has proven themselves as stable as a "slinky" is square dancing in a mine field,...

...

[39mto39g]

Seat
You certainly have the right to your opinion,
I would say give this article one more read and this time read it with an open mind. There are plenty of safe guards in it.
I?m much more in favor of just killing everyone over there but that?s not the reasonable answer, I had to read it twice to come to some kind of agreement, If you think about it , having control over a Bully that is not going away is much better than having no control. Again, the other answer is to kill them.

Ron

[SEATJERKER]

...
...In any statement, key words are used in determining any "agreement/ treaty/ etc, and some of the "words" that are mentioned attract attention,...

...I am a common man, and try not to reach to the deepest core on every word that is used, however in a situation such as this with so many different cultures involved means looking at it from every angle from history of past actions, and reasoning/logic, goes hand, in hand, a rose is a rose, many varieties, all beautiful, ""most"" have thorns, If it walks like a duck, quacks, ....

...
...Unilateral, yes means both sides equally, however that requires a strong foundation of stability that has never been In place,...

..."they must "Police" the middle east",...
...Police to them have always been death squads lead by one "ruler" in which the word "ruler" should mean, "one who others can measure themselves by" , not "let's smack the children across the knuckles with the ruler",...

..."minor armed conflicts would",...
...Minor?????????, Their minor conflicts have been going on for centuries as one "Jesse James" after another has tied to see who has the faster gun, the amount of armament over there says to me that they have more then enough arms to create, and continue the havoc that has been "going on for centuries" thus continuing the instability,...

..."policy change of this magnitude", policy to me means "let's just see what happens, and we'll figure out to do when it happens,...
...Nope, not me, don't buy that bill of goods laid before me, total it out, and show me what I bought, and make sure it is correct before "transaction has ended", or before one "transaction" gets too big, and out of control,...

...

[39mto39g]

Seat
Well at least you gave it a good look,
I would just say that Iran is not the United States and that area deals with its problems different that we do, The dealing (death squads) is just there way, just as spending millions to publicly defend OJ and then letting him off is our way, They don't understand what we do and we don't understand what they do. If Iran could police the area and make all the terrorist 'Stand down' However they did it, I could care less.
We have had problems with the Arab/Muslim world for a long time and that is because of our friendship with Israel, I have no idea why we are friends with Israel and chose to be enemies with the rest of the Arab world, Israel does the same things. Just not in the media.
Iran is going to have a Nuke, one way or the other, we have a choice, either we make friends and control them or we kill them.
Sanctions will not work, China and Russia will benifit by this, the terrorist will continue with Irans support. So again, we kill them or make friends with them.
The way I see it is a no win for us, we will go to a real war with The Arab/Muslim world.

Ron

[Boats]

MY feelings are whoever they are trading with now will change once paybacks are in order. Russia and China will learn real quick from the Iranian mindset that just because we are working together now - that doesn't mean I won't nuke you later once I have what I need.

In order for Iran, Syria and Iraq to work they themselves have to re-organize the way they think. I may be reading something else into the above segment but I feel the issue of trust between such radical countries is very very iffy!

You can better believe that whoever is trading with another has an underlined reason for their actions - and not necessarily intimidation (at this point of the game). Those former 3rd world countries having valuable resources that others want - is their current leverage.

I don't trust anyone on that side of the world. History should tell us that - thousands of years of fighting can't be fixed with a hand-shake and signed copy of an agreement. That can turn as quickly as a new leader is put into office. We've seen our policies change here everytime we put a new President in office.

[39mto39g]

Boats
Very true,
Trust your mother, everyone else pays cash.
The people in that part of the world wait till the last moment and then side with whoever is winning. If Iran was given the power and the responciblity to police that part of the world along with our frindship , I think the world would benifit, We certanly would.
And if worst comes to worst we can always take back the power, One way or the other.
I guess it would be kinda like hireing a bouncer for your Bar. sometimes the bouncer may break some heads to keep the peace, You may not agree with the head breaking but thats just the way it is.
If we make Iran OWE us than we can control the area threw Iran.

Ron

[SEATJERKER]

...

...many tangents,...

...We are moderates when it comes to civilization, we still have crime, and punishment as a civilization,...

... comparing Iran's, or """any""" odd leaders ""Justice/ death squads (any dictator's thugs)"" to a mockery of ""Justice"" regarding the OJ case is not along the same parallels, but,...

...For what I know of the Jewish people/faith, they have been bounced around forever, slaughtered, and in1948, the "world order" at the time gave them ??48 miles of land?? that was determined to be theirs rightfully, of course the others around wern't so giving of what they thought was "their" land, and have since wanted it returned, so the tantrum goes on,...

...for what it's worth,...

...last night's the "path to 9/11' raised some hackles,...

...what was the "stand" the previous administration took, toward terrorists?
...Could President Clinton, and everyone else in this Nation at the time done anything different to for see how inept, methodical, and subversive the terrorists actually are,...

...has the present administration played by "the rules" with nonexistent rules of engagement on how to fight the terrorist/ghost/killers",...

...""The way I see it is a no win for us, we will go to a real war with The Arab/Muslim world.""

...We are at war, but with radical "persons of bad intentions", not Arabs/Muslims as a whole, we're just going to have to crawl into every hole in the wall, and root them out, even if it is one at a time,...

...

[39mto39g]

seat

If we let Iran crawl into every hole then we don't have to.

The death squad and OJ comparison wasn't a comparison at all, It was the lack of understanding that each of the sides have about each other.
The Muslims would have just killed OJ, we in the United States would never condone a phone wire tap let alone a death squad.
We don't understand they way of life and they don't understand ours.

At war? I don't think so. We say we are at war but with who, The Muslim extremist have no country, there just thugs, We put a price on Osoma, Binlodens head of 25 million , well I think we should take that for what we are actually doing, Hireing mercinaries, Make it easy for mercs to get him, don't hide it, Hire them outright, There is no ganeva conventions going on hear, just some hired thugs by Muslim extremst to kill us, Well we should be doing the same only better.

Clinton could have no more done anything about terrorist flying planes into WTC than you could.
Times were way different before 9-11, High jack planes went to Cuba and the ocupants got a ride to the Caribean.
Even if he had intell about the highjacking, how would he have stoped the highjacking, Not let muslims on the plane?, Shoot a American airlines plane down? shut the airport down?
The people had boxcutters, legal at the time, they took over the plane and flu it into a building, not possible to stop, Then.

Ron

[Robert Ryan]

I think there would be too much of a power struggle between them to unite.