Putin plays with fire on the Danube

[Boats]

Putin plays with fire on the Danube
By: Jon Sweet & Mark Toth - Opinion & Washington Examiner News 08-04-23
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/author/mark-toth

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assault on the global food supply is continuing in Ukraine, and on Tuesday, it came perilously close to Romania — a NATO member that is also part of the European Union.

Last week Russia attacked Reni, a port along the Danube River less than 200 meters from Romania.

JACK SMITH'S DANGEROUS CRIMINALIZATION OF DISSENT

On Wednesday, the Kremlin used lethal drones to target the Port of Izmail on the banks of the Danube River that separates Ukraine from Romania. Early reports indicate a grain silo and elevator were damaged in the attack. Grain prices on the Chicago futures market immediately rose 5% as a result before stabilizing at $6.60 a bushel.

The fiery explosion, caught on video, is yet another wake-up call to NATO that Putin’s war, intentionally or not, could easily spill over into its territory. This on top of earlier reports of Belarusian helicopters entering Poland’s airspace causing Warsaw to rush troops to reinforce its border in response.

Both incidents are likely part of a growing joint Russian-Belarusian attempt to stoke fears and cause political unrest in former Soviet states, including Romania and Poland, in the hope it might divide Ukraine from its allies or erode domestic NATO support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

In reality, the unspoken part from the Russian perspective is that both incidents are also likely indicative that Moscow fears Putin’s "special military operation" is headed for disaster in the face of Ukraine’s slow but deliberate counteroffensive. In this sense, these two border provocations by the Kremlin were also intended to deflect domestic criticism of Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko at home in the absence of success on the battlefield.

Arguably, the relocation in early July of the bulk of the Wagner Group’s military forces — albeit denuded of their armor, heavy weaponry, and ammunition — to Belarus was the first rollout of this fallback strategy for the Kremlin.

In this first iteration, Lukashenko was overt in taunting Poland. In a comment clearly aimed at Warsaw, Lukashenko joked with Putin in St. Petersburg that “They are starting to stress us out with their actions — the [Wagner Group] is apparently intent on heading west: ‘Let’s take a tour to Warsaw and Rzeszow!’”

The helicopter and Danube incidents were far more subtle, yet they actually come at a much higher risk.

Putin, literally, is playing with fire. In that sense, the fiery explosion lighting up the waters of the Danube between Romania and Ukraine is symbolic of all that he is risking in playing his game of brinkmanship with NATO while also attempting to placate Russians back home in the Motherland.

Moscow cannot afford to expand the war, and certainly not with NATO. Conventionally, the Kremlin’s army is largely spent in Ukraine — and Putin’s military forces are overextended due to commitments in Syria and elsewhere (including paramilitary companies such as the Wagner Group in Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic).

As such, Putin in terms of defending against NATO is down to his strategic forces — nuclear submarines, bomber forces, and weapons of mass destruction — and all they can accomplish, if used, is the mutually assured destruction of Russia.

Putin and Lukashenko would also be wise to be careful about what they are asking for because there are members of NATO willing to give it to them, especially Poland and Romania. Both countries have missile capabilities.

Most of us learn very young that playing with fire gets you hurt. Putin, seemingly, is still in need of learning that lesson — and he may yet soon be on the Danube.

Note: Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel and 30-year military intelligence officer, led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth is an economist, entrepreneur, and former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis.

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Personal note: Russia is pressing folks of late I wonder how long they will deal
with his options or actions?