Putin Is Not Backing Down. He's Pivoting—to a New, Dreadful Kind of Warfare | Opinion

[Boats]

Putin Is Not Backing Down. He's Pivoting—to a New, Dreadful Kind of Warfare | Opinion
By: Rebekah Koffler of News Week News - 10-06-22
Re: https://www.newsweek.com/putin-not-b...pinion-1749478

[The new game plan - by Putin - is now in place. Hence even old dogs learn new tricks.]

Those who think that Russia has lost the war in Ukraine given Ukraine's recent military victories need to think again. They don't understand Putin's mindset, his high-risk tolerance, and his willingness to fight and create mayhem to win a high stakes battle. The overwhelming advantage Ukraine is now enjoying, fueled by the U.S., which has supplied superior training and top-of-the-line military hardware, will result in Russia turning to a new strategy.

Energy has always been Putin's best weapon, and OPEC+ just handed Russia a massive win by announcing the biggest oil supply cut since 2020 amid soaring inflation in Eurozone and the U.S. If oil hits $100 a barrel—a real possibility now—Russia will make $1 billion a day, according to United Refining Company CEO John Catsimatidis. This will continue financing Putin's war machine and enable him to deploy his energy weapon against Europe, as winter is approaching fast.

All of which is to say, Putin is not backing down. He is recalibrating. When hounded, Putin's MO is to fight back to get out of his corner. "If you want to win, then you have to fight to the finish in every fight, as if it was the last and decisive battle," Putin once said. "You need to assume that there is no retreat." That's how Putin has always fought, and it's been his strategy since the beginning of this conflict.

He will not be backing down this time, either. Ukraine is part of what Russia considers its vital security perimeter, meaning this fight has existential stakes for Moscow and for Putin personally. Ukraine's victories on the battlefield will not result in Putin ending the war but rather a turn away from conventional warfare.

The only question is, what will he turn to?

Russian strategists have long been working on new generation warfare tactics, which include the so-called Strategic Operation to Defeat Critical Infrastructure of the Adversary (SOPKVOP), which prioritizes civilian instead of military targets, employs both kinetic and non-kinetic strikes, and can be used both in wartime and in peace time. The goal is to defeat a population's will to fight and unbalance a society by degrading facilities that are vital for its functioning.

Having failed to understand Putin's mindset, our own government has naively or foolishly enabled SOPKVOP. Several years ago, the Department of Homeland Security posted on its website a list of 16 critical infrastructure sectors, which the Russians promptly scooped up. Those entities include energy, water, health care, emergency, chemical, nuclear, communications, government, defense, food, commercial facilities, IT, transportation, dams, manufacturing and financial services. Amazingly, in June 2021, following major Russian cyber attacks on Colonial Pipeline and the JBS meat processing facility, President Biden handed a list of critical U.S. infrastructure to Putin, asking him to spare those from cyber strikes.

It was a roadmap for how to weaken us.

The Russians believe that Western societies have a low threshold of tolerance for discomfort and hardship and that people will put pressure on the government to stop the pain. Expect Moscow to target Europe and the U.S. with cyber strikes on critical infrastructure to compel us to abandon our support for Ukraine.

They've been preparing for this for a long time. Russia has studied the U.S. and other countries' vulnerabilities and conducted "proof-of-concept" on critical infrastructure. In March, the U.S. Department of Justice indicted four Russian intelligence operatives and a cyber-hacker who worked for the Russian government and were conducting two separate "historical" hacking campaigns worldwide between 2012 and 2018. The key target of this clandestine program was the global energy sector. The Russians were doing what we call in the intelligence business "strategic targeting": mapping out access in order to disrupt and damage computer systems at a future time of its choosing, as part of the intelligence preparation of the battle space. Thousands of computers at hundreds of companies and organizations in approximately 135 countries were impacted.

Russia has already crossed the cyber Rubicon by temporarily shutting down Ukraine's power grid in a crippling operation during Christmas of 2015, causing a blackout for 250,000 people in freezing temperatures. This was the first recorded cyberattack on a power grid outside of a military conflict.

Russia gave us another preview of SOPKVOP and new generation warfare this past weekend, shortly after Putin warned that he is prepared to use "all means" in Russia's arsenal, including "various destructive methods." The Nord Stream pipeline then gushed with gas leaks, creating an environmental disaster in the Baltic Sea. It was an act of industrial sabotage, which is highly likely the work of the Russian government.

On Monday, NATO reportedly warned members that the Russian special mission nuclear submarine Belgorod, armed with a bus-size "doomsday" weapon called Poseidon, left its Arctic harbor. There are fears that Putin may have deployed the submarine to test Poseidon, which is capable of creating a 1,600 foot radioactive tsunami, a tactic aimed at flooding and destroying coastline cities.

While Poseidon will probably not be operational until 2027, testing would be a clear signal by Putin that he is prepared to climb quite high on the escalation ladder to get Ukraine and the West to back down, rather than face defeat in a war he believes neither he nor Russia can lose.

[Make no mistake: Putin will not back down. He is merely shifting strategy!].

About this writer: Rebekah Koffler is the president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, a former DIA intelligence officer, and the author of  "Putin's Playbook: Russia's Secret Plan to Defeat America." She also wrote the foreword for "Zelensky: The Unlikely Ukrainian Hero Who Defied Putin and United the World."
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Personal note: After reading this - I said to myself - you old dog you set this up
after some thought. Once he realized it wasn't going so well in Ukraine - he and his
Oligarch's must have put this plan into action. If you can't beat them - then sell
them your needed - oil and gas - at far higher rates as payment for supporting
NATO.
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Russia has figured a way to hurt the US & NATO by profiting by any means possible.
Oil & Gas under his control and will be sold at far higher prices to those countries in
NATO - including the US. The hand writing is on the wall - it only took a little discussion
with the supplier's and use leverage against NATO & the US. Thereby selling these needed
fuels - at a much higher price. This will rebuild his lost war expenses already used for the
Ukraine conflict.
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This is going to effect NATO as well as the US - at this time of the year - as winter
begins. Leverage without a shot being fired. Sucks don't it! Some deals with Saudi
suppliers have already worked out - hence the US prices will increase - as gas
has already gone up again - in the US. It's ~ dollar higher now - and once again
it will go higher according to the gas stations - in the US - as winter sets in.
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Ain't that just great!
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[Boats]

What happened during the Cuban missile crisis – and why is it being compared to Russia's war in Ukraine?
By: Sky News - UK - 10-07-22
Re: https://news.sky.com/story/what-happ...raine-12714559

President Joe Biden said on Thursday that "for the first time since the Cuban missile crisis" the world faces "the prospect of Armageddon".

Photo link: https://e3.365dm.com/22/10/768x432/s...20221007155336
President Kennedy updates Americans on the crisis in November 1962. Pic: AP

US President Joe Biden has been overheard saying that Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine carries the greatest risk of nuclear weapons being used since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.

Speaking at a Democratic Party fundraiser in New York on Thursday, Mr Biden said: "For the first time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use of nuclear weapons if, in fact, things continue down the path they are going.

"We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis."

Mr Putin himself has also threatened the use of Russia's vast nuclear arsenal.

Last month he said: "I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction... and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal."

Why is Biden talking about nuclear Armageddon?

In the face of unexpected, successful counter-offensives by the Ukrainians in recent weeks, some Western intelligence officials and defence analysts believe the Kremlin could resort to drastic measures to save face.

According to Russia's nuclear doctrine, it could launch a first-strike nuclear attack if the country's existence was deemed to be at risk.

Given Mr Putin's claims about why he started the war, any involvement of NATO troops in the Ukraine conflict could put this plan into action.

And after Moscow staged 'referenda' on annexing four areas of Eastern Ukraine, its leader could also use a Ukrainian attack on any of those territories to justify a nuclear strike.

Read more: (go to this report to open the two links below):
What nuclear weapons does Russia have?
Analysis: Putin's nuclear weapons threat could be catastrophic

If that did happen, NATO would have to respond, but currently officials have suggested they would only use conventional weapons in retaliation.

Several analysts believe that although Mr Putin says he is "not bluffing" any nuclear activity by Russia would be just as damaging for him - as it would for the West - and is therefore unlikely.

What was the Cuban missile crisis?

The Cuban missile crisis is considered the closest the world has ever come to nuclear annihilation.

The 13-day showdown in 1962 came during the Cold War and after the US discovered the Soviet Union had secretly deployed nuclear weapons to Cuba.

2nd Photo link: https://e3.365dm.com/22/10/768x432/s...20221007155533
Aerial images appear to show intermediate ballistic missile construction in Cuba

Responding to the presence of American ballistic missiles in Italy and Turkey, as well as the failed Bay of Pigs Invasion of Cuba in 1961, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev agreed to place missiles on the island - just a few hundred miles from the US coastline.

In response, then-US president John F Kennedy ordered a naval quarantine of the island to prevent further missiles from being delivered.

After several days of tension, Mr Kennedy and Mr Khrushchev reached an agreement for the Soviet Union to dismantle their weapons in Cuba in exchange for Mr Kennedy promising the US would not invade the island.

The US also secretly agreed to dismantle all of its medium-range ballistic missiles in Turkey.

3rd photo link: https://e3.365dm.com/22/10/768x432/s...20221007155435
Soviet ships sail towards Cuba. Pic: AP

It saw the warring geopolitical powers establish the Moscow-Washington hotline to facilitate quick and direct communication between them in the event of tensions escalating again.

Although the two leaders came to an agreement not to deploy the weapons, bitter tensions between the US and Soviet Union until the end of the Cold War in 1991 left the rest of the world fearing a nuclear attack for decades after.

'Protect and survive' adverts warned Britons of nuclear attacks

Those who lived through the 1970s and 1980s in Britain will remember the government's 'Protect and Survive' campaign.

Designed to prepare people for a nuclear attack and supposedly give them the best chance of surviving, it came in the form of pamphlets, TV and radio adverts.

4th photo link: It saw the warring geopolitical powers establish the Moscow-Washington hotline to facilitate quick and direct communication between them in the event of tensions escalating again.

Although the two leaders came to an agreement not to deploy the weapons, bitter tensions between the US and Soviet Union until the end of the Cold War in 1991 left the rest of the world fearing a nuclear attack for decades after.

'Protect and survive' adverts warned Britons of nuclear attacks

Those who lived through the 1970s and 1980s in Britain will remember the government's 'Protect and Survive' campaign.

Designed to prepare people for a nuclear attack and supposedly give them the best chance of surviving, it came in the form of pamphlets, TV and radio adverts.
Note: Video available on this site only - could not pull the link over to this post.)

One example recorded for use on BBC Radio 4 said: "This is the Wartime Broadcasting Service. This country has been attacked with nuclear weapons.

"Communications have been severely disrupted, and the number of casualties and the extent of the damage are not yet known.

"We shall bring you further information as soon as possible. Meanwhile, stay tuned to this wavelength, stay calm and stay in your own house."

Drills were also carried out in schools, workplaces and public buildings.

Air sirens used in the Second World War were repurposed and would be used to deliver attack warnings and 'fallout warnings' in the event of a nuclear incident.

The word 'fallout' refers to harmful radioactive material released by nuclear explosions.

Adverts advised people to move to the safest area of the house - known as the 'fallout' room - the furthest away from exterior wars and preferably on the ground floor or in the basement.

Families were instructed to close their windows and doors, draw their curtains, and even build an 'inner refuge' within the fallout room.

Fashioned by propping a door or wooden plank against the wall, people were advised to cover it with sand-filled bags or suitcases.

Families also had instructions to ration food, water and other essentials in the event of a nuclear strike, as they would be advised to stay in their fallout room for at least two days afterwards.

Their fatalistic tone had a lasting psychological and cultural impact on the population, in a similar way to the 1980s 'Don't Die of Ignorance' HIV/AIDS awareness campaign.
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Personal note: Our history shows us the path that very nearly started an all
out nuclear war. It was the year before I enlisted. My Mom was a wreck she
was scared to death of the possibility of a nuclear war.
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Well - here is a rerun of those events once more with Russia. However in the
wings lye's North Korea and China also very heavy with nukes and ready
to use them if need be.
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We the People of this world will suffer their waring and the scars will be very
deep within each country and millions if not billions will die a God awful
death by radiation and cremation by hells fires.
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The leader of these nuclear elements must come to the reality that there
will be no winners - just death and destruction for many many decades.
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There is a sickness in this world and its driven by madmen at the top.
Most didn't live through those days such as Japan did. It was not our
pleasure to due such harm but fortunately - the worlds attention knew
this destruction in the future would be our ruins. Yet they continue to
improve the killing aspects of weapons of mass destruction to a point
where no one will survive anywhere - and yet they still believe they
can win.
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God Help Us All - when hell's fires begin!
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