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Old 06-26-2021, 11:18 AM
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Arrow Is the worst yet to come in the Middle East?

Is the worst yet to come in the Middle East?
By: Paul Wood Spectator World News - 05-20-21
Re: https://spectatorworld.com/topic/wor...a-iran-israel/

Photo Link: https://3tu97y2w9w35k69i31phftc4-wpe...ty-730x475.jpg
by: Getty - Beirut

We can’t say yet if the latest fighting between Israel and Hamas is the start of ‘the big one’, a new Palestinian intifada, or uprising. That possibility was raised by the grandest of Middle East commentators, Thomas Friedman, in the New York Times. Friedman is sometimes mocked for his prognostications. A ‘Friedman’ is defined as six months because of his repeated statements that the ‘next six months’ would be critical for the US in Iraq, the light at the end of the tunnel visible only then. He also praised the ‘new ideas’ of Saudi Arabia’s ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, before it turned out that one of those new ideas was to dismember his critics with a bonesaw. Perhaps there will be another intifada, though as I write events are not moving that way. We should worry more about what the conflict between Israel and Hamas tells us about the real ‘big one’: war between Israel and Iran.

So far, this round of Israeli-Palestinian bloodletting has followed a familiar script. Hamas fires rockets; Israel hits back, hard. At last count, Hamas has fired 3,200 rockets into Israel — but these are crudely made projectiles and are by and large not accurate, most falling harmlessly on open ground. There have been relatively few casualties: 10 people, including two children. The Israeli military, on the other hand, has modern, precision-guided weaponry. If it wants to hit a particular building, it will. The Palestinians say more than 200 people have been killed, 60 of them children. Israel’s critics call this collective punishment, an ‘eye for an eyelash’. Israel’s defenders say that Hamas puts military hardware next to civilians. There is a measure of truth in both arguments.

Regardless, the Israeli government is in the same race it’s always in when bombing Gaza: to achieve its military objectives before international pressure, most importantly from America, forces a ceasefire. For the first time, this week, President Joe Biden ‘voiced his support’ for such a ceasefire. But this was in a telephone call with the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, not from the podium in the White House press room, and America blocked a UN Security Council statement demanding an ‘immediate’ cessation of hostilities. Perhaps the US wants to see a few more Hamas rocket factories destroyed before Israel stops its military operation.

That operation does not seem to include sending ground troops into Gaza. This would cost many lives (on both sides) and might push the US into getting serious about a ceasefire. Instead, Israeli bombers and artillery are ‘mowing the grass’ (a chilling euphemism when high explosives kill children as well as ‘terrorists’). Mowing the grass may work as a tactic but it’s a strategy of despair. One round of violence ends; both sides simply prepare for the next: a war without end.

But not without pause. Israel is running out of targets; Hamas out of rockets. The violence may be winding down, though everything could change again by the time this article appears. The unknown is the Palestinian street. A new generation of Palestinian teenagers has come of age since the last intifada. If they think it’s their turn to fight Israel with stones (and then suicide bombs), neither the Palestinian Authority nor even Hamas may be able to control what happens next. A new intifada might take place not only in the Palestinian territories but in Israel too, where a fifth of the population is Arab. Israelis — Jews and Arabs — got a terrifying glimpse of what that might be like at the start of this crisis. There were attacks on Jews in the mixed towns of Lod, Haifa and Acre, followed by revenge attacks on Arabs. Neighbors turning on one another would cost more lives than the rockets of Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

All this was set in motion by clashes between the Israeli police and Palestinian shabab — young men — in the Old City of Jerusalem. The police raided the Aqsa mosque, Islam’s third-most holy site because rocks were being stockpiled there, said the Israeli authorities. Dmitry Shumsky, a columnist in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, accused them of being deliberately provocative, under orders, he said, from Israel’s ‘pyromaniac’ security minister. The raid happened to be on the Night of Power, the most sacred of the Islamic calendar. Shumsky said this was a calculated attempt to cause a violent reaction and ‘scorch’ any hope of forming a new coalition government to replace Netanyahu’s. If so, it worked.

His Haaretz piece quoted the former Israeli deputy prime minister Haim Ramon’s remark that ‘an unwritten pact’ exists between Netanyahu and Hamas. Hamas needs an enemy like Netanyahu; Netanyahu needs Hamas to keep the Palestinians divided. In firing the first barrage of rockets, Hamas was no doubt trying to make sure that it (and not the Palestinian Authority) would assume leadership of the emerging struggle on the streets.

Hamas is financed by Iran, which supplies parts for the rockets hitting Israel. Why hasn’t Iran asked its ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah, to join the attack? Perhaps Hezbollah refused, believing this is not the right time to escalate. The Lebanese economy is collapsing; it’s already fighting on another front, in Syria. Or perhaps Iran, too, thinks now is not the time to escalate, not wishing to jeopardize the talks with the United States on reviving the deal to limit its nuclear program. Once signed, that deal would end many of the economic sanctions against Iran; Tehran would get billions of dollars.

Israel believes Iran will use that money to build more missiles for Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, as it did when the Obama administration signed the nuclear deal with Iran. And Israel does not believe the deal now being negotiated will stop Iran from getting a nuclear bomb. Almost the entire Israeli military and political establishment see an Iranian bomb as a flying holocaust. Israel’s military commander, General Aviv Kochavi, warned in a speech earlier this year that he had prepared ‘a number of operational plans’ to attack Iran. That could be a bluff, or Israel might really be prepared to carry out a pre-emptive strike against Iran.

Then Iran would activate its allies in Lebanon and Syria and Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and the whole region would be in flames. Much depends, then, on whether the nuclear talks make progress. The next Friedman or two — the next six to 12 months — will be critical for peace in the Middle East.

This article was originally published in The Spectator’s UK magazine.

About this writer: Paul Wood is a journalist for the BBC.
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O Almighty Lord God, who neither slumberest nor sleepest; Protect and assist, we beseech thee, all those who at home or abroad, by land, by sea, or in the air, are serving this country, that they, being armed with thy defence, may be preserved evermore in all perils; and being filled with wisdom and girded with strength, may do their duty to thy honour and glory; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

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Old 06-26-2021, 11:33 AM
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Exclamation The dark past of Iran’s new president

The dark past of Iran’s new president
By: David Patrikarakos - Spector World News - 06-19-21
Re: https://spectatorworld.com/topic/dar...ebrahim-raisi/

Photo link: https://3tu97y2w9w35k69i31phftc4-wpe...6-730x475.jpeg
By: Ebrahim Raisi (Getty)
(Note: Ebrahim Raisi sat on Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s ‘death committee’)

Each vote counts…come and vote and choose your president. This is important for the future of your country.’ These were the words of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Friday morning as he urged people to make their voices heard in the presidential election.

Each vote doesn’t count, of course. The regime makes sure of that. Iran ‘manages’ its elections. This year, 600 people registered as candidates. That was cut to seven. The unelected Guardian Council, which consists of 12 ‘jurists’ (clerics), is responsible for ensuring all candidates are compatible with ‘Islamic values’.

What this means is that it can disqualify pretty much anyone it doesn’t like. The real reasons the council generally disqualifies people are almost invariably to do with politics rather than religion.

In 2013, everyone thought the winner would be the hardline then mayor of Tehran, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. Instead, the (comparative) moderate Hassan Rouhani won with over 50 percent of the vote, precluding even the need for a second round. The following eight years saw repeated struggles between Rouhani’s more reform-minded circle and those around the Supreme Leader.

They won’t make the same mistake again. Among the prominent candidates the Council barred from standing were Eshaq Jahangiri, Rouhani’s first vice-president, and Ali Larijani, a conservative former speaker of parliament.

Four remained at the time of the vote: Amir-Hossein Qazizadeh Hashem, a doctor and hardliner; Abdolnaser Hemmati, governor of the Central Bank of Iran; Mohsen Rezai, secretary of the Expediency Council, which advises the Supreme Leader; and Ebrahim Raisi, chief Justice of Iran — and the overwhelming favorite.

The other three candidates conceded to Raisi on Saturday.

By clearing the way for Raisi to win, the Supreme Leader’s coterie did two things: one, they ensured their man took control of the presidency; and two: they sent a message to the Iranian people and to the world.

This is because even by the regime’s pathological standards, Raisi is a hardliner. In July 1988, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran’s first Supreme Leader issued an order (some argue it was even a fatwa — a religious ruling) ordering the execution of imprisoned opponents.

It was the beginning of what turned out to be the biggest massacre of political prisoners since World War Two. Charged with carrying out the executions was a ‘four-man commission’ later known as the ‘death committee’ — prominent among whom was Raisi.

The executions went on for five months — thousands were killed (some estimates are as high as 30,000). Most of the victims were members of the Iranian opposition group the People’s Mujahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI), or the Mujahedin-e-Khalq. To this day the regime denies the massacres took place.

Ahmad Ebrahimi was in Tehran’s Evin prison at the time. A supporter of the PMOI, he served 10 years from 1981-1991, before finding political asylum in the UK.

‘Raisi is a murderer,’ he tells me. ‘He was a mass murderer in 1988. The regime tries to say these mass executions never took place but me and people like me are doing our best to get the truth out.’

He has strong feelings about the regime — and the election.

‘It’s a sham,’ he says. ‘The regime uses these elections to legitimize the government, to say it has the support of the people. But it’s nothing to do with that. The people have proved that they do not accept the regime — indeed they are opposing it through demonstrations and protests.’

At 9 a.m. on August 1988, along with 60 others, Ebrahimi was taken, blindfolded, to a corridor in the building where the committee was in session and left there until 6 p.m. in the afternoon. Once inside the ‘court’ his blindfold was taken off, and there he saw Raisi among the four-man commission. He remembers Raisi talking about handing down death like it was nothing.

‘Back then, he wore normal civilian clothes — not the clerical garb he wears today,’ he said.

‘It wasn’t generally known that they were executing prisoners en masse,’ he continues. ‘But words had come back to a few of us that they were killing PMOI members so when it was my turn to speak, I said I had never been a full member of the group. So I survived.’

I spoke to Ebrahimi on Thursday just after he had attended a demonstration outside the Iranian embassy in London. Now he is among many campaigning for the British government to take a tougher line on Iran.

‘We hope that the British government takes note all the executions and human rights going on in Iran. We want the UK government to make any dealings with the regime conditional on it halting the executions and starting to pay due attention to human rights in Iran,’ he said. ‘This regime has gone on for 40 years, killing and torturing. The world has to do something – Iranians are being oppressed.’

With the results from Iran’s sham election, it seems almost certain that their oppression will only get worse.

Note: This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.

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Personal note: If this is their culture - it's primitive - and just plain brutal. This culture is out of time - as is their religion - if it calls for such brutality. It goes to show they are still backwards in their evolution - and their religious (holeyer than thou -attitudes) are cruel and unjust - and plain - out of date with reality. Their sand-pile attitude must come from too much sunshine - and dripping in oil - they will someday sustain a major revolt - into a more modern footprint of the world order and People's Rights. No God would recommend such brutality!
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O Almighty Lord God, who neither slumberest nor sleepest; Protect and assist, we beseech thee, all those who at home or abroad, by land, by sea, or in the air, are serving this country, that they, being armed with thy defence, may be preserved evermore in all perils; and being filled with wisdom and girded with strength, may do their duty to thy honour and glory; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

"IN GOD WE TRUST"
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