Is Russia Going to Invade Ukraine?

[Boats]

Is Russia Going to Invade Ukraine?
By: Vladmir Isachenkov - Associated Press - 11-24-21
Re: https://www.military.com/daily-news/...C=eb_211126.nl

MOSCOW -- Ukrainian and Western officials are worried that a Russian military buildup near Ukraine could signal plans by Moscow to invade its ex-Soviet neighbor.

The Kremlin insists it has no such intention and has accused Ukraine and its Western backers of making the claims to cover up their own allegedly aggressive designs.

It's unclear whether the Russian troop concentration heralds an imminent attack or represents an attempt by Russian President Vladimir Putin to persuade the U.S. and its NATO allies to refrain from sending soldiers and weapons to Ukraine, and drop plans for its eventual integration into NATO.

Here is a look at the current tensions:

What are the roots of the Russia-Ukraine standoff?

Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in 2014 after the country's Moscow-friendly president was driven from power by mass protests. Weeks later, Russia threw its weight behind a separatist insurgency that broke out in Ukraine's east.

Ukraine and the West accused Russia of sending its troops and weapons to back the rebels. Moscow denied that, charging that Russians who joined the separatists were volunteers.

More than 14,000 people have died in the fighting that devastated Ukraine's eastern industrial heartland known as Donbas.

A 2015 peace agreement brokered by France and Germany helped end large-scale battles, but efforts to reach a political settlement have failed and sporadic skirmishes have continued along the tense line of contact.

Earlier this year, a spike in cease-fire violations in the east and a Russian troop concentration near Ukraine fueled war fears, but tensions abated when Moscow pulled back the bulk of its forces after maneuvers in April.

The latest Russian military buildup

Ukraine complained this month that Moscow has kept about 90,000 troops not far from the two countries' border following massive war games in western Russia in the fall.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said units of the Russian 41st army have remained near Yelnya, a town about 260 kilometers (160 miles) north of the Ukrainian border.

The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Lt. Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhny, said Russia also has about 2,100 military personnel in the rebel-controlled east and that Russian officers hold all commanding positions in the separatist forces. Moscow has repeatedly denied the presence of its troops in eastern Ukraine.

Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence, claimed in a weekend interview with the Military Times that Moscow was preparing an attack from several directions, including from Russia's ally Belarus, in late January or early February.

Russia hasn't provided any details about its troops numbers and locations, saying that their deployment on its own territory shouldn't concern anyone.

What does Moscow want?

The Kremlin has accused Ukraine of failing to honor the 2015 peace deal and criticized the West for failing to encourage Ukrainian compliance. The agreement was a diplomatic coup for Moscow, requiring Ukraine to grant broad autonomy to the rebel regions and offer a sweeping amnesty to the rebels.

Ukraine, in turn, has pointed to cease-fire violations by Russia-backed separatists and the continuing Russian troops presence in the rebel east -- accusations the Kremlin has denied.

Amid the recriminations, Russia has rejected a four-way meeting with Ukraine, France and Germany, saying it's useless in view of Ukraine's refusal to abide by the 2015 agreement.

Moscow has strongly criticized the U.S. and its NATO allies for providing Ukraine with weapons and holding joint drills, saying that encourages Ukrainian hawks to try and regain the rebel-held areas by force.

Earlier this year, Putin ominously said a military attempt by Ukraine to reclaim the rebel east would have "grave consequences for the Ukrainian statehood."

The Russian leader has repeatedly asserted that Russians and Ukrainians are "one people," and charged that large chunks of Ukrainian territory are historic parts of Russia -- arbitrarily granted to Ukraine by Communist leaders under the Soviet Union.

Putin has strongly emphasized that Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO represent a red line for Moscow, and also expressed concern about plans by some NATO members to set up military training centers in Ukraine. He said that would give them a military foothold there even without Ukraine joining NATO.

"They may put anything there under the guise of training centers," Putin said last month. "Formal membership in NATO may never come, but the military development of the territory is already under way."

Is the threat of a Russian invasion real?

Russia rejected talk of an invasion plot as a Western smear campaign and charged the claims could conceal a Ukrainian intention for an attack in the east. Ukraine denies such plans.

U.S. officials conceded that Moscow's intentions are unclear, but pointed to Russia's past behavior as a cause for concern.

Speaking to Ukraine's foreign minister this month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Putin's "playbook" was to build up forces near the border and then invade, "claiming falsely that (Russia) was provoked."

Some observers interpret the troop buildup as a demonstration by Putin that Russia is prepared to raise the stakes to convince NATO to respect Moscow's red lines and stop sending troops and weapons to Ukraine.

Last week, Putin noted with satisfaction that Moscow's warnings finally have got some traction and caused a "certain stress" in the West. He added: "It's necessary to keep them in that condition for as long as possible so that it doesn't occur to them to stage some conflict on our western borders that we don't need."

He urged Russian diplomats to push for "serious long-term guarantees ensuring our security in this area because Russia can't keep on going like that, constantly thinking about what could happen there tomorrow."

Related Topics: Military Headlines Russia Ukraine Vladimir Putin Global Hot Spots
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Note: Related to the above: Go to the site below:

The President of Ukraine Accused Russia of Preparing a Coup, as Russian Troops Amass Near the Border

The U.S. warned allies that Russia may decide to invade Ukraine in the next few months.

Site: Re: https://www.military.com/daily-news/...ar-border.html

Ukraine's president has accused Russia of preparing a coup as early as next week.

Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that he has information that Russia is involved in a coup planned for December 1 or December 2, Reuters reported.

He told a press conference, according to Reuters: "We have challenges not only from the Russian Federation and possible escalation — we have big internal challenges. I received information that a coup d'etat will take place in our country on December 1-2."

The warning comes as Russia builds up troops along its border with Ukraine, stoking fears that it could be preparing an invasion.

The U.S. warned allies that Russia may decide to invade Ukraine in the next few months and could deploy around 100,000 troops to Ukraine, Bloomberg reported this week.

Experts also told Insider's Ryan Pickrell that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is a "very real possibility."

Ukraine's defense ministry warned this week that Russia is increasing its "combat readiness" in Ukraine.

The head of Ukraine's defense intelligence agency also told Military Times last week that Russia already has around 100,000 troops on the border.

Related Topics: Military Headlines Ukraine Russia Global Hot Spots

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Personal note: This world is unstable on many fronts. Why - not sure - but its not
what we think - its more or less the principle of the issues and saving face with your
country. Why Russia is hell bent on Ukraine must go back to sometime in the past
that has left an open wound in Russia. Liberation is one thing but the political issues
or endeavors are another.
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[Boats]

NATO, U.S. Repeat Warnings To Russia Of 'Costs' If It Escalates With Ukraine
By: RadioFreeEurope.org News - 11-26-21
Re: NATO, U.S. Repeat Warnings To Russia Of 'Costs' If It Escalates With Ukraine

U.S. and NATO officials have issued fresh warnings of the possible consequences of any new Russian aggression against neighboring Ukraine, with Washington suggesting that "all options are on the table" if the alliance is forced to respond to an escalation by Moscow.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on November 26 that Russia had assembled combat-ready troops, tanks, and heavy military equipment near its border with Ukraine and cautioned Moscow that any force against its neighbor would incur "costs."

Reports of a Russian buildup of more than 90,000 troops recently prompted the United States and Germany to reiterate their support for Ukrainian independence and territorial integrity.

"If Russia uses force against Ukraine that will have costs, that would have consequences," Stoltenberg said in Brussels.

Moscow has denied direct involvement in Kyiv's seven-year war with separatists in eastern Ukraine despite overwhelming evidence of Russian troop and other assistance. It has downplayed the recent reports of its troop movements as an internal matter.

"This is the second time this year that Russia has amassed a large and unusual concentration of forces in the region," Stoltenberg said in an allusion to a purported buildup in the spring that eased soon after a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden in June.

Russia this week launched military drills in the Black Sea region near Ukraine.

Earlier on November 26, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his country was prepared for any Russian escalation and alleged that unidentified Russians and Ukrainians were plotting to overthrow his government next week.

Russia has recently stepped up its involvement in an ongoing feud between Alyaksandr Lukashenka and the West since a highly criticized Belarusian presidential election in 2020.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NATO's 29 other foreign ministers are scheduled to gather in Latvia on November 30, with Russia's activities high on the agenda.

Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are both expected to attend an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) ministerial meeting on December 2-3.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried said on November 26 that a key focus of Blinken's European trip next week would be how to respond to challenges including Russia and Belarus.

"As you can appreciate, all options are on the table and there's a toolkit that includes a whole range of options," Donfried told reporters.

"It's now for the alliance to decide what are the next moves that NATO wants to take," she said of the NATO and OSCE gatherings.

"Next week, we will talk about our assessment of what's happening on Russia's border with Ukraine and we will begin that conversations of what are the options that are on the table and what it is that NATO as an alliance would like to do together."

With reporting by Reuters and AP
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Personal note: I wonder how far Putin wants to push this issue or will he just make
the move to save face? We should know before long.