Collateral damage

[SuperScout]

Internalize vs. Externalize: the apparently restive Iranian population can only be repressed for so long, and then, like the shaken champagne bottle, the cork has to blow. The current mullahs are giving just enough freedoms to keep things in check, for the time being, but I think they're running out of options, perks, and the ability to satisfy inate itchings of the people. Add to this mix a little itch powder supplied by the CIA, more and more outside news via cell phones and satellite TV, and a few other reminders of unfulfilled yearnings, and things could get rather dicey in 2004. The lack of hegemony in the military, with some taking the hardline approach and some sypathizing with the local folks, makes them a totally unreliable enforcement arm, from the mullahs perspective.

Externally, again the Iranian military is an unknown quantity and quality; how many would stick round to enforce the mullahs' edicts, should internal revolt break out, is pure guesswork. Like their neighbors next door, many will probably shuck their uniforms, don civvies, and fade into the crowd. Lack of spare parts, poorly maintained equipment, primitive technology, and other combat negatives combine to minimize their external potential. Add to this mix their bizarre thought-process: the incident involving the USS Vincennes during the Iran-Iraq war was an example of desperation, hardly a good thing to have in times of stress when clear thinking is called for. What the Irani military has in numbers, and a bunch of them no doubt, will not overcome glaring deficiences in strategic thinking, effective leadership, and concise national purpose.

BOTTOM LINE: 2004 will see an internal revolt by the local folks, and a more moderate Iran will emerge, one that slowly yet perceptably eases over to the West. Next domino to fall: Syria.

[BLUEHAWK]

Scout - Scamp

What, would you say, might likely be the "collective memory" of Iran's military, paramilitary, police and intelligence forces who are yet with the living following or during the time of the late and most recent Shah... and hence of his offspring? vis a vis your two above comments...

[SuperScout]

Pre-Shah/Post Mullahs collective mindset may fall into this very simple collection: weren't we truly better of under the Shah, and haven't the excesses of his secret police been more than supplanted by the theo-thugs? Given the relatively high intelligence level of the regular Irani folks, my guess is that there has been several years of regretful thoughts, wishing for a return to those better years, without the excesses than were once experienced, and are now being played out anew, if only in a different paradigm. Combine a disjointed military, resentful if not rebellious populace, add in an external bit of yeast in the form of "here's how things will get better," and you have a recipe for change.

[BLUEHAWK]

I see, and concur.

[Seascamp]

Logic seems to dictate that the Mullahs would choose to internalize and set about internal cleansing and purging of the various and assorted ?Satins? that have come to hang out. These supposed Satins are simple concepts of personal freedoms. Given that the vast majority of the freedom seeking people and the Iranian Military are too young to remember or know what the Islamic Revolution was about, I?d say the Mullahs have a long row to hoe and little chance stacking the streets and alleys of Tehran with uncounted tens of thousands of bodies one more time. So I?d say that internalization, if it comes, will be in the form of limited surgical strikes and not mass exhibitions of mountains of lifeless bodies. However, on the other hand, the bow string is drawn tight and there is a high probability that it wouldn?t take much to let it go, back lash and it?s bye-bye one stupid theocracy.

As far as externalization, that is possible if and only if the Mullahs become toddy?s for some gunslinger with a bad attitude and the power to back it up. I?m keeping an eye on whom in the international grab bag the Mullahs are taking steamy, candle lit showers with these days. I?m thinking that will tell the tale. At the end of the day, I?m thinking the Iranian Military is a lot tougher than Saddam?s former mob and will go for it if the conditions are right. I recall that during the Iran- Iraq war thousands of boys and young men were recruited for the sole purpose of walking down mine fields or used to run the Iraqi automatic weapons positions out of ammo. Their payday was a green plastic key that was supposedly the key to heaven, scary stuff. As Col. Scout suggests, the rank and file may not be so willing to go pick up their green plastic key to heaven this time around and that is probably the wild card and Iran ends up with the same results as if they had internalized.

Scamp

[BLUEHAWK]

Scout and Scamp -
Okay then, ARE there, to your belief or knowledge, ANY or ENOUGH of the professional commanders from the time of the Shah anywhere within the current military regime of Iran today, or, would you say they have trained and competent replacements at their previous levels who are likely to "carry on"?

Or, would the coup du jour (as it were) come from ONLY the younger lower ranking commanders?

Am I understanding correctly that it is far more likely a "regime change" in Iran will come from or be made effective by the military than from any other likely source?

If so, do you believe that American policy will side with the "victors" even despite our vociferous objections to their supposed nuclear proliferations?

[Seascamp]

I?ll go with pure gut feel, past prejudice and a long handled spoon on this bit of speculation. I?d say that any talent that was loyal to the Shah is long dead or has been in exile for a quarter of a century. The current in-country talent in Iran either lives under the oppressive and ever watchful thumb of the Mullahs and their murderous thugs or is a secret non-person living in frustration. I would be the last person to ever say that contemporary Iranian talent; or the more distant Persian talent, are a mob of mindless cattle at the beck and call of tyrant Mullahs. The Iranian Islamic Revolution is a gory exercise in mob rule and exactly what happens when civil order breaks down at the will of demigods and charlatans. At the same time, it is impossible for me to believe that that brutal exercise is representative of the intellect or values of that ancient civilization. So I?d speculate that the Mullahs didn?t kill all the intellect, though they certainly have tried, and beneath the thin vainer of some supposed national piety there lies lots of talent of a more rational mind. When the revolt is provoked by the Mullahs, I speculate that all that has been thought lost will boil out everywhere, including the exiled Iranian community. I believe this will include those previously thought to be unconditionally loyal to the Mullahs.

I wouldn?t expect nor do I think it would be a good thing if the emerging Iran became pro-US, but I would expect that there will be a lot of unofficial back doors opening up and with that some very strong words as to what is expected and the necessary steps. I further speculate that the real talent within Iran and those that come out of exile will see the need to set a course away from the status as an internal rogue and terrorist State. As Col. Scout wisely stated, modern communication is the huge fissure in the bastion of tyranny and will be the undoing of the charlatan Mullahs. The voice of an idiot screaming his head off and spewing hate from atop a minaret is being drowned out by a much larger world and the Iranians are listening, all of them.

Anyway, that?s what I see Blue and it?s all open to cussing and discussing.

Scamp

[BLUEHAWK]

It reads well Scamp... reads well. A better image of a) from which possible site the probable unpleasantness will arise, b) who will have the muscle to defeat the brainless, c) how it is hopefully likely that the resultant free(r) govt is apt to wish itself to be seen in our DOD and State Dept. and d) how much or how little, all things going more or less without TOO much trouble, our own guys are likely to be fighting that war FOR the contestants.

Thanks fellers, always a pleasure.

[SuperScout]

Been off the net fer couple days, visitin' son #2, who's about to go off for his all-expense-paid-travel-adventure in Iraq. Now back to Iran: had the good fortune of attending the Armor Officers Advanced Course at Ft. Knox multiple years ago, and some of my good friends and classmates were Irani officers. Many came from monied families, some well-connected to the Shah. After the Ayatollah Kohmeini took over, there was never another peep out of my former classmates, which is not too amazing, since they all had a 9mm slug in the back of their heads. All of the truly competent and trained (trained in the West, so they were automatically targeted for removal) were soon taking a permanent dirt nap, and the sycophants assumed command and control of the military, never mind that the issue of competence was never considered. Compare and contrast the 11th century tactics that were used by both sides of the Iran-Iraq war, and you'll soon understand that this was a war of attrition, fought by children in many instances, commanded by idiots in most cases, resulting in stalemate, piles of corpses, and a deepened hatred of the other side by either. (My reference to the incident involving the USS Vincennes earlier was my belief that the Irani command loaded a civilian airliner with already-dead corpses [as if there was a live corpse!], and deliberately flew the plane into "off-limits" airspace, knowing the US would react, hoping to bring the Evil Satan into the fray, so the Irani could have somebody else to blame for all the casualities.)

Just speculating, I'd guess that there are few truly noteworthy commanders within the Irani military; certainly pilots' skills have either become totally rust covered, or are so barnacle encrusted as to be virtually useless in head-to-head competition. The real catalyst for change within Iran will be from the student set, those 20-30 year olds who, like Scamp ahs noted, are not listening to the mouseshit emanating from the minarets, and are playing attention to stuff on the Internet. The military's role will be to follow whomever they think will come out on top.

[SuperScout]

Have you considered renaming this thread "Collateral Improvements"? From the 'fallout' (pun purely intended!) over the capture of Sad Rat Hole Dweller, the Libyans are falling all over themselves trying to behave like regular people; the advice from Ronald Reagan, uttered about the Russians, is applicable here: trust, but verify. It would be an intersting exercise to be a fly on the wall of the Iranian Parliament, or what poses as their governing heirarchy, and the apparent fissure in the previously impervious wall of theocracy. Maybe they want to make nice as well with their nukes or parts thereof.

And can you just imagine the little pot-bellied crackpot, aka the Thug of the NKPR? Desperate as he is for the spotlight, the amount of notice he's been generating is only a mere flickering candle, and he knows that his nemesis in DC is truly a man of action, not just empty words. These collateral improvements in the overall safety of the world will take a few more months to play out, but in the long run, the nominating committee for the Nobel Peace Prize might want to give serious consideration to awarding this medal to a real peacemaker, not that wannabee peanut farmer.