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Old 07-12-2019, 03:29 PM
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Arrow Russia in Review, July 4-12, 2019

Russia in Review, July 4-12, 2019 (Alot to read - but interesting)
RE: https://www.russiamatters.org/news/r...july-4-12-2019

This Week's Highlights

NATO officials are exploring whether to upgrade the bloc’s defenses to make them capable of shooting down newly deployed Russian intermediate-range nuclear missiles after the INF Treaty dissolves next month, according to three European officials cited by the New York Times. “It would be a point of no return with the Russians,” said Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon official and expert on the alliance.

Under a revamped Pentagon strategy to counter growing threats from Russia and China, American commandos are teaming up with partners on Europe’s eastern flank to thwart Russia’s so-called hybrid warfare, the New York Times reports. “This is back to the future,” Gen. Richard Clarke, the head of the Pentagon’s Special Operations Command, said in an interview, referring to countering Russian efforts.

Russia’s state-owned TASS news agency reports that the U.S. House of Representatives has passed an amendment to the draft National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA, for FY2020, envisaging sanctions against Russia’s sovereign debt over alleged election meddling. The amendment will need approval from both chambers before the draft budget is submitted to President Donald Trump for signing.

A senior Russian diplomat has blamed the U.S. for rising tensions in the Persian Gulf and suggested that war is increasingly likely following months of deteriorating relations, TASS reports.

High-ranking North Korean and Russian officials have discussed plans for bilateral military cooperation, according to a July 4 press release by the Russian Defense Ministry cited by Jane’s. The ministry announced that Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin would travel to North Korea for talks with his counterpart, according to NK News.

Over 70 percent of entrepreneurs surveyed by the state-owned VTsIOM pollster said they considered business conditions in Russia unfavorable, according to Forbes Russia. Nearly 60 percent said these conditions have deteriorated over the past year and 51% believe they will keep getting worse. Asked to complete the phrase “doing business in Russia is ...” many of them answered that it was “difficult,” “hard,” equal to “suicide” and a “lottery” and the same "as to be at war."

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

Keys for the “new safe confinement” shielding Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant were symbolically presented to the Ukrainian authorities on July 10, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has announced. (World Nuclear News, 07.11.19)

The 14 sailors who died during a recent fire on a nuclear-powered Russian military submarine prevented a “planetary catastrophe,” Capt. Sergei Pavlov, an aide to the commander of Russia’s navy, said at their funeral. (Bloomberg, 07.08.19)

Norwegian scientists have discovered radiation levels 100,000 times higher than normal near the Komsomolets Soviet-era nuclear submarine that sank 30 years ago in the Arctic. (The Moscow Times, 07.10.19)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

High-ranking North Korean and Russian officials have discussed plans for military cooperation between their two countries, according to a July 4 press release by the Russian Defense Ministry. The ministry then announced that Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin would travel to the DPRK for talks with his North Korean opposite number Kim Hyong Ryong. (Jane’s, 07.04.19, NK News, 07.08.19)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

A senior Russian diplomat has blamed the U.S. for rising tensions in the Persian Gulf and suggested that war is increasingly likely following months of deteriorating relations. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters on July 11 that the diplomatic standoff between Washington and Tehran threatens to boil over into armed conflict. (TASS, 07.11.19)

Iran and Russia on July10 poured scorn on America's call for Tehran to adhere to limits in a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, at a special meeting of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog. Russia's ambassador to the IAEA, Mikhail Ulyanov, tweeted after the meeting that the U.S. "was practically isolated on this issue." (AFP, 07.10.19)

U.S. Army Chief of Staff General Mark Milley, the nominee to take the reins as the 20th chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has downplayed the potential of a full-blown war with Iran while also noting that the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has “strained” relationships with critical allies. (Jane’s, 07.11.19)

The Pentagon says it is moving closer to establishing military escorts for ships in the Persian Gulf, hours after Britain said armed Iranian boats "attempted to impede" a British oil tanker. (RFE/RL, 07.12.19)

The United States has decided not to slap sanctions on Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif for now, an indication that Washington may not be closing the door to diplomacy in the countries' tense dispute. (RFE/RL, 07.12.19)

European powers are likely to put off for weeks a decision on triggering a dispute procedure in the nuclear deal with Iran that could lead to international sanctions being reimposed, diplomats said, potentially further inflaming tensions with the U.S. on how to deal with Tehran. (Wall Street Journal, 07.12.19)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

NATO military officials are exploring whether to upgrade their defenses to make them capable of shooting down newly deployed Russian intermediate-range nuclear missiles after the INF Treaty dissolves next month, according to three European officials. “It would be a point of no return with the Russians,” said Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon official and expert on the alliance. NATO is considering new air and missile defenses, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced last week without revealing details. (New York Times, 07.06.19)

The White House has issued a veto threat for the House version of the FY20 defense authorization bill. Some of the provisions in question include: a prohibition on the availability of funds for deployment of a low-yield ballistic missile warhead and for a mobile variant of the ground-based strategic deterrent missile. They also include a $413 million reduction for the Missile Defense Agency. (Forecast International, 07.11.19)

Under a revamped Pentagon strategy to counter growing threats from Russia and China, American commandos are teaming up with partners on Europe’s eastern flank to thwart Russia’s so-called hybrid warfare. “This is back to the future,” Gen. Richard Clarke, the head of the Pentagon’s Special Operations Command, said in an interview. “This is going to be a very long, sustained campaign,” Maj. Gen. Kirk Smith said, referring to countering Russian efforts. “They are trying to get through the seams. Our job is to recognize that, and compete with, counter and disrupt them.” (New York Times, 07.12.19)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

The first parts of a Russian S-400 missile defense system were delivered to NATO member Turkey on July 12. Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation confirmed it had started delivering the S-400s to Turkey and that the deliveries would continue as per an agreed schedule, the state-run RIA news agency reported. The Turkish Defense Ministry said July 12 that the shipment was underway and Turkish television broadcast footage of three cargo planes landing at an air base near Ankara, and ground crew unloading parts. Last week Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, discussed the delivery by phone. (The Moscow Times, 07.12.19, Wall Street
Journal, 07.12.19, RFE/RL, 07.08.19)

"Turkey will face real and negative consequences if they accept the S-400," State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said July 9. "Those consequences include participation in the F-35 program." (Wall Street Journal, 07.12.19)

Participants in a Russia-NATO Council meeting discussed Ukraine and transparency and risk reduction, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on July 12. "Ukraine remains the first item of discussion. We discussed the security situation in eastern Ukraine. The lack of progress on the Minsk Agreements. And the tensions in and around the Sea of Azov," he said. (Interfax, 07.05.19)

Gen. Tod Wolters, NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe, met on July 10 with Russian Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian military’s General Staff, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (NATO, 07.10.19)

Missile defense:

No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov expects it will be possible to launch a structured dialogue on arms control, including New START, at a meeting with U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs Andrea Thompson in
Geneva on July 17-18. (TASS, 07.05.19)

NATO and Russia did not make significant progress on saving the INF Treaty in talks at alliance headquarters on July 5, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. However, Stoltenberg also said Russia could still salvage the treaty because there is still enough time, although barely, for the country to destroy its new SSC-8 missile. (Reuters, 07.05.19, Jane’s, 07.05.19)

Maj. Gen. Andrei Sterlin, head of the Main Operational Directorate of the Russian military's General Staff, told Moscow's lower house of parliament on July 11 that the U.S. may have accelerated preparations to place medium- or intermediate-range missiles in Romania after both countries suspended their commitments to the 1987 INF Treaty. (Newsweek, 07.11.19)

The U.S. Department of Defense will be forced to reconsider its modernization programs for the nuclear triad if the Trump administration decides not to extend the New START nuclear weapons treaty with Russia—something that worries Pentagon leadership, Retired Lt. Gen. Frank Klotz said. (Breaking Defense, 07.11.19)

Counterterrorism:

Seven men believed to be supporters of the Islamic State terror group and hailing from post-Soviet Tajikistan, were sentenced to lengthy prison terms in Russia on July 12 for attempting to stage a collision on a high-speed railway between Moscow and St. Petersburg in 2017. (The Moscow Times, 07.12.19)

Conflict in Syria:

The Syrian Network for Human Rights says that at least 544 civilians have been killed and more than 2,000 injured since a Russia-backed assault on the final rebel stronghold of
Idlib in northwestern Syria began two months ago. (RFE/RL, 07.07.19)
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have discussed by phone bilateral cooperation on the Syrian crisis, the Kremlin press service reported on July 8. Putin has also discussed the situation in Syria and the crisis in Libya with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (TASS, 07.08.19, Interfax, 07.08.19)
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said that, during the papal audience, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Pope Francis discussed all aspects of the Syrian issue, paying special attention to the preservation of Christian Holy Sites in Syria. (TASS, 07.08.19)

Cyber security:

No significant developments.

Elections interference:

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed an amendment to the draft National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA, for FY2020, envisaging sanctions against Russia’s sovereign debt over alleged election meddling. The amendment will need approval from both chambers before the draft budget is submitted to President Donald Trump for signing. (TASS, 07.12.19)

Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats, FBI Director Christopher Wray, Gen. Paul Nakasone, who directs the National Security Agency, and acting homeland security secretary Kevin McAleenan briefed a full complement of House members and senators on the state of election security. The officials have reportedly warned of "active threats" to the 2020 presidential elections as they briefed Congress on measures that the government has taken to improve security following what the U.S. intelligence community said was Russian interference in the 2016 campaign. (The Washington Post, 07.11.19, RFE/RL, 07.11.19)
Inside a London office building in early June, three investigators for the Justice Department's inspector general took a crucial step toward clearing the political fallout from the Russia investigation: They spent two days interviewing Christopher Steele, asking him to explain in detail how he had validated his sources inside Russia, how he communicated with them and how he decided which of their claims to include in his reports. (New York Times, 07.10.19)

Attorney General Bill Barr has ordered an investigation into whether the CIA was correct to determine that Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to boost Donald Trump during the 2016 election. Barr explained the questions he wants the investigation to answer: "What was the predicate for conducting a counterintelligence investigation on the Trump campaign? … How did the bogus narrative begin that Trump was essentially in cahoots with Russia to interfere with the U.S. election?” But that question has already been asked and answered at the CIA’s highest levels—by Mike Pompeo, a Trump loyalist, according to three people familiar with the matter. Just after Pompeo took over as CIA director in 2017, he conducted a personal review of the CIA’s findings, grilling analysts on their conclusions in a challenging and at times combative interview, these people said. He ultimately found no evidence of any wrongdoing, or that the analysts had been under political pressure to produce their findings. (The Washington Post, New York Times, 07.08.19, Politico, 07.12.19)

A spokesman for a U.S. House of Representatives committee said the panel was not satisfied with the testimony of real estate developer Felix Sater, a former business associate of President Donald Trump who played a role in negotiations to construct a Trump Tower project in Moscow. Sater said after the July 9 closed-door session with the House Intelligence Committee that he spoke "fully and completely" about the unbuilt Moscow tower. (RFE/RL, 07.10.19)

“Our bloggers, whoever they are—I don’t know who works on the internet—couldn’t have played a key decisive role no matter how they expressed their views on the situation in the United States,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said. (The Moscow Times, 07.10.19)

A Moscow organization with links to the notorious Russian "troll farm" said two of its employees have been arrested by Libyan authorities, and one news report said they were accused of trying to influence upcoming elections there. The two men were detained in
Libya in May, according to a statement released July 5 by the Foundation for the Protection of Traditional Values. (RFE/RL, 07.05.19)

Energy exports:

Russia's oil production has fallen to a three-year low this month, due to a conflict between the country's largest producer and oil pipeline company. (Wall Street Journal, 07.09.19)

Last week Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom invited bank analysts on a trip to inspect the construction work of the Turkish Stream (aka TurkStream) pipeline. They report work on the pipeline is on schedule and that it is 90 percent complete and should go online before the end of the year. (bne Intellinews, 07.10.19)

Kazakh state-run oil producer KazMunayGaz (KMG) and Italy’s ENI signed on July 4 a “protocol of direct negotiations” on granting subsoil use rights for exploration and production of hydrocarbons within joint operations on Abay, an offshore area in the Kazakh segment of the Caspian Sea. (bne Intellinews, 07.10.19)

This spring, the price of natural gas at a trading hub near Midland, Texas, dropped as low as negative $9 per million British thermal units—meaning that producers were paying people to take it off their hands. (Wall Street Journal, 07.08.19)

Bilateral economic ties:

No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs David Hale has met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in Helsinki and discussed "U.S.-Russia relations and the impact of regional challenges in Europe, the Middle East and Asia," the State Department said in a statement. Ryabkov said he and Hale discussed the situation in Venezuela and the case of Paul Whelan, among other issues. He added that Moscow was not considering exchanging Whelan for Russians in U.S. custody. (RFE/RL, 07.11.19)

Russia has accused the United States of “vicious anti-Russia propaganda” tactics that hearken back to the Cold War after the U.S. State Department’s aid agency drafted a framework on “countering malign Kremlin influence.” USAID said earlier that the framework “responds to authoritarian challenges by increasing the economic and democratic resilience of targeted countries,” including Ukraine and Moldova. (The Moscow Times, 07.08.19)

Russian lawmakers are now considering new legislation that will in effect prohibit international payment systems from refusing to process transactions in compliance with sanctions. (The Moscow Times, 07.12.19)

Russia has launched a complaint at the World Trade Organization to challenge U.S. anti-dumping measures on imports of hot-rolled flat-rolled carbon-quality steel from Russia, it said in a filing published by the WTO on July 9. (Reuters, 07.09.19)
On July 4, 50 workers from the GAZ van maker’s Nizhny Novgorod factory rallied on behalf of their 40,000-strong workforce in front of the U.S. ambassador’s residence in Moscow. (The Moscow Times, 07.05.19)

A court in Moscow ruled on July 8 to keep U.S. investor Michael Calvey under house arrest until Oct. 13, Interfax reported. Calvey, founder of the Baring Vostok private equity group, was detained in February pending a trial on embezzlement charges. A Moscow court has ordered French banker Philippe Delpal, a partner at Baring Vostok, to remain in jail pending trial on fraud charges, extending his detention until at least Oct. 13. (Reuters, 07.08.19, RFE/RL, 07.10.19)

Michael Flynn’s hopes of avoiding a prison term could be in jeopardy after U.S. prosecutors said that his new legal strategy had prompted them to reassess their two-year-old cooperation agreement. Flynn had been expected to testify against his former business partner, Bijan Kian. Prosecutors said in court papers unsealed this week that Flynn had been dropped as a witness. (Bloomberg, 07.10.19)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

Russia’s current account posted a $45.6 billion surplus in the first half of this year, the Central Bank of Russia reported on July 10. The surplus, according to preliminary estimates, was mainly the result of a large trade surplus ($86.5 billion). The other data shows a significant increase in FDI: $11.6 billion, up by nearly 40 percent year on year. (bne Intellinews, 07.10.19)

Some 71 percent of entrepreneurs surveyed by the state-owned VTsIOM pollster said they considered business conditions in Russia unfavorable. Some 59 percent reported that these conditions have deteriorated over the past year, and 51 percent said they believe that in the future business conditions will only worsen. Asked to complete the phrase “doing business in Russia is ...” many of them answered “difficult” and “hard,” as well as that it was equal to “suicide” and a “lottery” and the same thing "as to be at war." (Forbes Russia, 07.11.19)

The 100 wealthiest civil servants and lawmakers in Russia earned a collective 71 billion rubles ($1.1 billion) last year, Forbes Russia has said. The highest earner in the latest ranking was Pavel Antov, a member of the legislative assembly in the Vladimir region east of Moscow, with a windfall of 9.97 billion rubles ($156.3 million) last year. (The Moscow Times, 07.10.19)

Russia is among the leading countries in Europe where employees regularly work nights or weekend shifts, recent research published by the Moscow-based Higher School of Economics has said. (The Moscow Times, 07.11.19)

The annual general shareholders meeting of Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest producer of palladium and one of the largest producers of nickel, platinum and copper, approved the final dividends for 2018 at a rate of 792 rubles ($12.25) per ordinary share, or about $1.9 billion in total. (Barents Observer, 07.09.19)

Russia will build the tallest building in Europe. The One Tower project will be constructed on the territory of Moscow City. The height of the planned building is 405 meters. (bne Intellinews, 07.07.19)

President Vladimir Putin’s job approval rating has climbed to 68 percent this month from 66 percent in April-May and 64 percent in January-March, the Levada Center’s poll results said. (The Moscow Times, 07.05.19)

The Kremlin is considering cutting the share of seats elected via party lists in the State Duma from 50 to 25 percent in an effort to secure its lock on parliament ahead of potentially vital decisions that could extend Vladimir Putin’s rule. With the current voting system, the pro-Kremlin United Russia at best will obtain a simple majority in the Duma in 2021, said lawmaker Vladimir Zhirinovsky. The party’s popularity sank this week to the lowest level since 2006: Only 32.2 percent of Russians would vote for it today, according to state-owned pollster VTsIOM. Keeping a strong hold on parliament would allow Putin to switch roles, keeping the reins of power as head of the ruling party and prime minister with expanded constitutional authority at the expense of the presidency, said two people close to the Kremlin and a ruling-party legislator. (Bloomberg, Vedomosti, 07.12.19)

The number of political prisoners in Russia has grown sixfold since 2015, a prominent member of the pro-democracy movement Open Russia has said. (The Moscow Times, 07.10.19)

Mansur Sadulayev, a self-exiled Chechen human rights activist and critic of the Chechnya’s Kremlin-backed leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, has reportedly been detained in Sweden at the request of Russian authorities. (RFE/RL, 07.10.19)

Police in Moscow have detained dozens of demonstrators who rallied in front of the Supreme Court to show solidarity with four Crimean Tatars sentenced to lengthy prison terms on terrorism charges. (RFE/RL, 07.11.19)

Over 1 percent of the general population in 13 Russian regions was living with HIV in 2018. (The Moscow Times, 07.05.19)

Russian officials have raised the death toll from the flooding in the southern Siberian region of Irkutsk to 23, reports say. (RFE/RL, 07.08.19)

Four people have been killed and 11 injured in a fuel tanker crash and explosion in the Urals region of Sverdlovsk. (The Moscow Times, 07.08.19)

One person has died and 13 have been injured in a large fire that broke out near a power station in the town of Mytischi, near Moscow, a Russian official said on July 11. (RFE/RL, 07.11.19)

Moscow’s weather will feel like that of present-day Detroit while St. Petersburg's will more closely resemble that of Sofia three decades from now, researchers warned in a study published in the journal PLOS ONE. (The Moscow Times, 07.12.19)
Defense and aerospace:

Over 2,000 paratroopers landed at Naimanskaya military site near the Black Sea on July 11 as Russia staged large-scale aviation drills on the annexed Crimea peninsula. Forty military transport planes were involved in the drills. (Reuters, 07.12.19)

The former leader of Russia's Ingushetia region has been appointed deputy defense minister of Russia. The decree signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 8 also promoted Yunus-Bek Yevkurov from major general to lieutenant general. (RFE/RL, 07.08.19)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

Five Russian security service officers have been arrested and two placed under house arrest by a military court in Moscow on charges of robbery, Interfax reported on July 5.
Previous conflicting reports had said six unnamed Federal Security Service (FSB) officers had been detained on suspicion of either embezzlement or robbery on July 4. Seven members of the FSB’s elite Alpha unit are also wanted in the case, but fled during a tour of duty in the North Caucasus to escape detention, according to the Novaya Gazeta newspaper. (The Moscow Times, 07.05.19, Russia Matters, 07.12.19)

Russia's Federal Security Service has arrested Alexander Vorobyov, who worked as an assistant to President Vladimir Putin's envoy to the Urals region Nikolai Tsukanov. The FSB says Vorobyov is facing charges of high treason. Vorobyov allegedly passed sensitive details abroad from security meetings chaired by Putin, the Znak news website has reported. (RFE/RL, 07.06.19, The Moscow Times, 07.09.19)

A Polish court has convicted a former government employee of passing classified energy information to Russian military intelligence. The Warsaw District Court gave the man, identified as Marek W., a three-year prison sentence at the July 5 hearing. (RFE/RL, 07.06.19)

Two or three Russians have been arrested in Uruguay on suspicion of aiding the escape of notorious Italian mob boss Rocco Morabito in the South American country, according to media reports. (The Moscow Times, 07.11.19)

Law enforcement authorities detained deputy chairman of Russia’s pension fund Alexei Ivanov on July 10. Ivanov was taken into custody ahead of the fund’s $23.8 million data system tender announcement. He then pleaded guilty to charges of accepting a bribe and submitted his resignation. (The Moscow Times, 07.12.19)

This week, the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg ruled in favor of Russian national Valeria Volodina, a victim of domestic violence. Rejecting arguments from Russia that she had suffered no real harm from her ex-boyfriend, the court awarded her 20,000 euros, about $22,500. Ten more Russian women have similar cases pending before the court. (New York Times, 07.12.19)

Complaints of torture in Russia’s penal system have doubled over the past year, the country’s top human rights official has said. (The Moscow Times, 07.10.19)
Two-thirds (66 percent) of Russian respondents believe falsified drug cases and police planting evidence on people is common practice in Russia, according to results published by the independent Levada Center pollster July 9. (The Moscow Times, 07.09.19)
Five officials in Moscow’s police department have been dismissed over last month’s arrest and subsequent release of investigative journalist Ivan Golunov. (The Moscow Times, 07.11.19)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:
BuzzFeed News has obtained an audio recording of an October meeting in which three Russians and three Italians—including Gianluca Savoini, a close aide of Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini—can be heard negotiating the terms of a deal to covertly channel tens of millions of dollars of Russian oil money to Salvini’s Lega, or League, party. “We want to change Europe,” said Savoini, who dined alongside Vladimir Putin at a government banquet to celebrate the Russian president’s visit to Rome last week. “A new Europe has to be close to Russia,” he said. (BuzzFeed News, 07.10.19)
Italian prosecutors are investigating allegations of illicit Russian funding of the Salvini’s party. (RFE/RL, 07.11.19)

"Never taken a ruble, a euro, a dollar or a liter of vodka in financing from Russia," Salvini said in a statement on July 10. (RFE/RL, 07.11.19)

Speaking at a news conference after holding talks with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte in Rome, Russian President Vladimir Putin said July 4 he hoped Italy would battle to restore fully fledged relations between the European Union and Russia and help persuade the bloc's new leadership that sanctions on Moscow were counter-productive. Putin also met Pope Francis. (Reuters, 07.05.19)

India and Russia held high-level talks in New Delhi on July 11 to elevate bilateral cooperation in the field of space, including assistance in India's maiden human space flight mission Gaganyaan, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Dmitry Rogozin, director-general of Russia's space agency Roscosmos, led the two sides. Separately, the Indian Air Force is seeking to acquire an additional 18 Sukhoi Su-30MKI multirole fighter aircraft from Russia, according to Vladimir Drozhzhov, the deputy director of Russia's Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation. (India Today, 07.13.19, Jane’s, 07.09.19)

Russia's Foreign Ministry has issued a formal diplomatic protest to Japan after accusing Tokyo of circulating a map at its G20 summit showing a disputed island chain as Japanese territory, the ministry's spokeswoman said July 4. (Reuters, 07.04.19)
Russia is not obliged to make a decisive contribution to the settlement of the situation in Libya as it has never bombed that country, but it is ready to help normalize the situation there, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on July 4 after talks with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. (TASS, 07.04.19)

China:

Saudi Arabia, Russia and 35 other states have written to the United Nations supporting China’s policies in its western region of Xinjiang, according to a copy of the letter seen by Reuters on July 12, in contrast to strong Western criticism. (Reuters, 07.12.19)

The Russian government has approved construction plans for a toll highway that will dramatically cut cargo shipping times between Europe and China, the Vedomosti business daily has reported. Russia reportedly began construction of the first section of the corridor, called the Meridian highway, this year, linking China’s western neighbor Kazakhstan with Belarus. (The Moscow Times, 07.08.19)

TVEL, the nuclear fuel manufacturer of Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom, has supplied a batch of nuclear fuel for the China Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR) under its contract with China Nuclear Energy Industry Corporation and China Institute of Atomic Energy. (World Nuclear News, 07.10.19)

Ukraine:

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky have agreed to continue the “Normandy” format and exchange of prisoners, the Kremlin has said. The telephone conversation was the first interaction between the two leaders.
(Financial Times, 07.11.19, The Moscow Times, 07.12.19)

On July 8 Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s new president, has suggested that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump should join expanded talks aimed at ending a smouldering war with Russia-backed separatists in the country’s eastern regions. Addressing the Russian president in a video address, Zelensky said: “We need to talk? We do. Let’s talk. … I suggest the following company for our conversation: You and I, U.S. President Donald Trump, British Prime Minister Theresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron,” he said. (Financial Times, 08.08.19)

Russian President Vladimir Putin says he’s willing to sit down with Ukraine’s new president for talks to settle a deadly conflict in eastern Ukraine. Putin responded July 11 to Volodymyr Zelensky’s proposal to hold talks with the mediation of U.S., British, French and German leaders, saying that he is open to the idea. Earlier Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also gave a cautious welcome to the proposal. (AP, Russia Matters 07.11.19, Interfax, 07.09.19)

The EU provided €119 million in new aid to Ukraine on July 8. It is largely focused on the nation’s war-affected southeast and Azov seaports. During the EU-Ukraine summit in Kiev that day the EU also reaffirmed its willingness to disburse the second tranche of €500 million in macro-financial aid. "Ukraine can count on the EU," European Council President Donald Tusk told the country's new leader Volodymyr Zelensky. (Euronews, 07.08.19,

Ukraine Business News, 07.09.19)

The U.S. government is reviewing engineering bids to build piers, dry docks and warehouses at the two main Azov ports—Berdyansk and Mariupol. (Ukraine Business News, 07.09.19)

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said on July 8 one of its soldiers has been killed and three others wounded in a battle with Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. The Defense Ministry then said on July 11 one of its soldiers has been killed and nine others wounded in a battle with the separatists. (RFE/RL, 07.08.19, 07.11.19)

The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) arrested Ukrainian citizen Vladimir Borysovich Tsemakh in connection to the 2014 downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 (MH17). Tsemakh was previously known to have been the commander of an air defense unit in Snizhne, the town nearest the Buk missile launch site. (Bellingcat, 07.09.19)
German citizen “Alex D,” who was born in Kyrgyzstan, has received a suspended sentence for joining Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 07.10.19)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that the country will not hold an "expensive" military parade as it has in years past on the country's Independence Day, Aug. 24. Instead, the president said in a video address posted to Facebook on July 9, the 300 million hryvnas ($11.7 million) typically used to showcase the country's firepower and armed forces will be allocated to servicemen as bonuses. (RFE/RL, 07.10.19)
The European Union’s General Court on July 11 annulled asset freezes imposed on former
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, his son Oleksandr and five other associates. (RFE/RL, 07.11.19)

The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office has registered a criminal case into attempted treason over the Ukrainian TV channel NewsOne's plans to arrange a TV linkup with a Russian TV channel, Prosecutor General Yuri Lutsenko has said. (Interfax, 07.08.19)

Ukraine’s former president sought to maintain his grip on power by stoking a diplomatic crisis ahead of this spring’s elections, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said in a new interview with Hollywood director Oliver Stone. In the interview with Stone previewed on July 8, the president accuses Ukraine’s Petro Poroshenko of “provoking” the naval incident with Russia last fall as part of his presidential campaign. (The Moscow Times, 07.09.19)

Former U.S. President Barack Obama did not keep his promises on Ukraine made while he was in office, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said in an interview with American filmmaker Oliver Stone. “I can say that our agreements reached in [a] telephone conversation were not fulfilled by the American side,” Putin said, declining to go into further detail. (Gazeta.ru, The Moscow Times, 07.10.19)

Aggressively pumping natural gas into Ukraine’s underground storage facilities, Naftogaz reached the 45 percent mark on July 6, with 14 billion cubic meters in storage. (Ukraine Business News, 07.09.19)

With Ukraine’s GDP expected to hit $150 billion this year, the nation is on track to record 60 percent cumulative GDP growth since 2016, when it was $93.4 billion. (Ukraine Business News, 07.08.19)

Ukraine has become a “world hub” of smuggling cigarettes into Europe, Alexei Goncharuk, deputy chief of staff for President Volodymyr Zelensky has said. (Ukraine Business News, 07.08.19)
Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, has adopted a law allowing the forcible chemical castration of pedophiles. (RFE/RL, 07.12.19)
See also “Nuclear security” and “Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations” sections above.

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

Belarus has almost completed talks on borrowing $600 million from China, which would be used to repay debts to Russia, Belarusian Deputy Finance Minister Andrei Byalkavets said. (RFE/RL, 07.10.19)

In a top-secret operation earlier this year, Kazakh counterintelligence officers detained a senior government adviser on charges of spying for China. The arrest of Konstantin Syroyezhkin—a former Soviet KGB agent—comes as Kazakhstan's leaders struggle to balance a hunger for Chinese investment with fears of encroachment by their giant eastern neighbor. (Wall Street Journal, 07.10.19)
Authorities detained dozens of people in Kazakhstan's two largest cities, as protesters staged the latest in a series of rallies against newly elected President Qasym-Zhomart
Toqaev. (RFE/RL, 07.06.19)

Tajikistan will later this month conduct another round of joint military exercises in its high-altitude Pamirs region with China’s armed forces, lending weight to suspicions that Dushanbe is increasingly outsourcing its security needs to Beijing. (Eurasianet.org, 07.09.19)

Tajikistan has opened a criminal investigation after 14 prison inmates died of food poisoning while being transferred from Tajikistan's northern Sogd region to prisons in Dushanbe, Norak and Yovon in southern Tajikistan on July 7. (RFE/RL, 07.08.19)
The European Union's foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini met with the foreign ministers of post-Soviet Central Asian countries on July 7. The top diplomats from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan got together in Bishkek. Mogherini said, "The European Union has no hidden agenda" and is "not asking them to choose" between the EU and others. (RFE/RL, 07.08.19)

European Council President Donald Tusk said in Batumi that Russia's move to ban direct flights to Georgia was "unjustified and disproportional." He also said the European Union believes the only way to resolve a decades-old dispute between Baku and Yerevan over Nagorno-Karabakh is through “a political settlement in accordance with international … principles.” (RFE/RL, 07.09.19, 07.11.19)

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in televised comments on July 9 that he did not support a parliamentary call to impose tough economic sanctions on Georgia. The Russian parliament unanimously backed a resolution earlier in the day urging the government to draw up sanctions against Georgia (Reuters, 07.09.19)
Georgian prosecutors have alleged that the mass protests that roiled the capital last month were part of an attempted coup by unnamed individuals seeking to seize power. (RFE/RL, 07.05.19)

LGBT activists staged Georgia's first pride parade amid heavy security in the capital, Tbilisi, on July 8, after the event was halted earlier due to security concerns. (RFE/RL, 07.09.19)
A Moldovan parliamentary commission has published the second part of an investigation detailing the disappearance of some $1 billion from the nation’s banking system, an event that the tiny, impoverished country is still reeling from. (RFE/RL, 07.05.19)

IV. Quoteworthy

“Everyone knows that indeed wind power generation is good, but does anyone remember about birds in this case? How many birds die?” Vladimir Putin said in a keynote speech at the Global Manufacturing and Industrialization Summit. The wind turbines “shake so much that worms get out from the soil!” he said. (bne Intellinews, 07.10.19)
A note to our readers: Monday's Russia Analytical Report was sent out with an incorrect headline. We apologize for the confusion!
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O Almighty Lord God, who neither slumberest nor sleepest; Protect and assist, we beseech thee, all those who at home or abroad, by land, by sea, or in the air, are serving this country, that they, being armed with thy defence, may be preserved evermore in all perils; and being filled with wisdom and girded with strength, may do their duty to thy honour and glory; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

"IN GOD WE TRUST"
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