What will "history" be in 10,000 years? [closed]

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What will "history" be in 10,000 years? [closed]
By: World Building Summation [written ~ 3-years ago]
Re: https://worldbuilding.stackexchange..../196435#196435

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Assume what life will be in ~ 10,000 years, what aspects and events from today will still be remembered or are likely to still be remembered?

The invention of the internet lets us store vast amounts of information, but most of it will likely be forgotten over time, or hard disks destroyed/overwritten. Which major events are likely to survive against time?

10,000 years are a very long time. It's longer than the recorded history so far. A Roman coming to our time would surely wonder how many of the things that seemed important back then are either completely forgotten, or only known in a very rudimentary and distorted way, or just known to a handful experts. And that's just 2000 years.

I'd expect that in 10,000 years the general people will know next to nothing about our time. They will probably lump the last 500 years and the 500 years to come into one thing, or possibly even a larger period.

They will probably know that it was the period where science took off, where it got possible to travel around the world in a matter of days, and where the first humans managed to leave the planet. Also it will be remembered that it was the time when worldwide real-time communication became possible.

Probably some people will have heard about the big empires of the time (never mind that we don't call it that, from their view, it will not be too different from e.g. the Roman empire), like America, Russia and China. What they think they know about Europe is probably that it was always chaotic there.

Probably a few big names like Hitler and Stalin will survive, because they are so ingrained into our collective memory. However the ideas about Hitler and Stalin they will have will be as far from the reality as our common ideas about what Caesar or Nero were like; probably more as the time difference is larger.

All the other names which are important for us will likely be unknown to anyone but history experts. Names like Obama or Putin will ring no bell (well, Putin is still in power, and probably will be for some time to come, so it's still possible that he will make a long-lasting name).

Whether it will be known as the time which led into a bright age of science and technology, as the time that devastated the planet and consumed all its resources leading to a worldwide economic and social collapse, or as the time which drove humanity into the World War III, only time will tell.

First of all, I think the information itself will be preserved. Much of what I'm about to write relies on the belief that no disaster will occur which may destroy nearly all of humanity.

TLR information storage will get easier as time goes on, remembering will be easy if people in the future are aided by computers.

A nuclear war or something may cause a lot of destruction, but assuming we survive that long, then as time goes on, information technology will get better, and 10,000 is a longer time than recorded history. I think IBM's Watson, the machine that can play Jeopardy, had a large portion of the internet copied as training data for it. In the future, the internet today can be copied using only a portion of a large company's resources, if they decide to archive it just in case. If a copy of the information gets destroyed, just recover it with another backup. The simultaneous destruction of all copies is quite unlikely without major incident. A small computer hidden underground should be able to survive most disasters today, and nuclear reactions, which convert part of something's mass into energy, can only generate as much energy as the mass of the matter being converted, which is finite. (If you want more examples of how large amounts of information can easily be stored, look up deja-google, the way google is a day before. I heard that it was used during daily challenges where you try to find the answer to a problem using google, but want to avoid spoilers created by others playing the same game)

As for whether people will remember it or not, I feel that this isn't necessary for the masses, because older inventions will sound fundamental and "already taken" to those who are overexposed to advanced technology, and modern stories about how new innovations can still be made will be more relevant. If people in the future are aided by computer technology, then a specialized historian can easily remember all the major events, including the ones in our textbooks, just in case.

By the way, based on current trends, information technology becomes exponentially more efficient over time. Refer to Moore's law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law and the timeline only lengthens linearly. Hopefully, before technology of this sort reaches its limit, we will be able to expand to other planets, and increase the space and material we have with which to place and construct servers for the storage of information cubically.

Next: 2

I would assume that all pertinent data from the past has been somewhat archived & vaulted somewhere underground. A brief history of our past as we understood it:

Data relating to all wars and/or conflicts and their outcomes. Lessons learned about pollution & contamination issues – space travel – reasons for leaving our planet and what our discoveries were back then.

Sub-topics on our Health issues and plagues we encountered and treated.

Listing of our do's and don'ts to survive.

Medical issues sustained and cures to improve our health issues.
Listing of contaminates that did harm to the peoples of this world.
Ridding ourselves of diverse & criminal actions within the public.
These are just a few, I would think.

But one more relating to monetary gains will no longer be an issue as we will no longer need currency at that time.

3. Humans haven't been writing things down for 10,000 years, but we can get some idea of what to expect by looking at extremely ancient civilizations, namely Egypt and Mesopotamian region. Look at how badly Egyptian history from the Old Kingdom or the history of the Sumerians is remembered. In Egypt the timing of many events and the reigns and names of various pharaohs are highly uncertain, with the error bars on some events being on the scale of a few centuries. A lot of this has to do with the fact that the Egyptian calendar doesn't quite match up with the Julian one, so even when dates are recorded it's not clear when they're talking about.

Some supposed rules may be outright fictional characters misinterpreted as real. Gilgamesh was probably a real king but we know almost nothing beyond his actual reign aside from the Epic of Gilgamesh, which may have been propaganda or the result of posthumous deification. And for most of these empires the identity and reign of their rulers are some of the biggest things they are often concerned with recording for posterity. The fact that this information doesn't survive well doesn't bode well. There are entire ancient civilizations like the Elamites who despite being a large empire with their own language and writing system we basically know nothing about.

Most countries probably won't be remembered. Almost no one outside of history buffs remembers the old provinces of Rome or their pre-Roman inhabitants, even if many place names are taken from them. 10,000 years is such a long span that only the most relevant events to a future audience would be remembered. For example, the U.S. might be remembered for being the first people to land on the moon and the first to use atomic weapons in war, but the reasons for the Cold War and the nature of the war that led to the use of atomic bombs might be forgotten.

It's even plausible that highly traumatic events that we try not to forget today like the Holocaust would be forgotten. If events like the Holocaust weren't anomalous in the future it might be remembered, but given how genocide isn't an uncommon occurrence in human history there wouldn't be a lot of reason for it to stick out. The Holocaust is notable to use because it was committed by a highly industrialized, highly Westernized power in a time where genocide was no longer the order of the day, but in the far future it is unlikely that they would be Euro-centric enough to consider the actions of the Nazis and memorable relative to, say, Mao's Great Leap Forward, the Rwanda Genocide, or the actions of the Khmer Rouge.

It's unlikely a lot of art will survive, simply because art is usually a singular piece and hence can be easily misplaced or destroyed.

#3 Scientific Systems May Not Last:

Indeed, it's not even clear if systems we deliberately designed to last forever, such as the Linnaean system of naming or Mendeleev's periodic table will stick around, given that both are less than 300 years old. Yes, the physical principles that both describe are still around, but the names may change dramatically and their principles may be lost or re-invented from scratch or replaced with alternate models. Mendeleev I could see it being difficult to destroy, but with Linnaean species names I've already seen people try to suggest that we rename species and erase the naming contributions of many biologists because their opinions were politically incorrect by modern standards, despite the fact that the general rule is "who finds it first gets to name it" and "names are forever for stability".

Even systems of numbers might not be the same, Arabic numerals are only about 1500 years old and alternative math systems like the Maya vigesimal system or Roman numerals exist. It's conceivable that numeral systems could change in 10,000 years. Number systems might also change for political reasons (e.g., the adoption of the metric system in the wake of the French Revolution) or just because someone comes up with a better model that we don't know of yet.

#4a: 1. History is not about informations, but about facts that had impact on their future, so hards disks being destroyed should not be a problem. The data means nothing, their implications in our society is what we will remember. The great discoveries in science (all the diseases we have eradicated, the first step on the moon, Internet, 3D printing, the first mobile device as an ancestor of fully embedded techhnologies like IoT), tendancies in politics (first black president of the USA, first woman, the last great wars, last dictatures) and in sociology (maybe the rise of religious extremists and the revival of various extremist ideologies), this is what will stay in the history books. Rereading, I find it a little depressing ...

2.4a: I would think that after 10000 years, most of the events mentioned would be reasonably insignificant. Most of these events are far too specific and irrelevant. The whole of the last 500 years might be referred to as the introduction of technology in the same way we look at the introduction of agriculture in the 8th century BC. –
dunc123 Jul 27, 2016 at 13:00.

1. 4b. I'm not sure of that, what we learn in school about antic Greece and Egypt is their political organisation and their philosophical et sociological trends (which include religion, integrations of other nations, etc.). I Agree that the political examples I took will be insignificant, but if in 10000 years the concept of disease has disappeared, the one we
fought will become significant...

2. Historians make the winners, as someone famous once said Besides, if we have a major climatic catastrophe, or a nuclear world war, it will shadow everything else... It looks like a draw here !

Closing comment:

This is going to be a tough question to answer, but I'll take a crack at it. And before I begin, I would like to say that there is no true way to tell, because we have no real life examples and everything is pure speculation. I also apologize for the length, I wrote a lot more than I thought I would. There are many rings to consider, and I tried to cover all I could think of. And since there is so much to consider, I can't really give you an answer other than it depends and tell you what it depends on.

First of all, look at the past. Most people know only a rudimentary bit about events 3,000 years previous. That is only a third of the time span you suggest. This would suggest that very few events would survive and remain pertinent.

Now, let's take another angle. In the past few decades, we've made leaps and bounds in technology. Life expectancies are longer and information storage techniques are much more effective (although possibly not as long lasting). If these trends continue, then I can see two things happening. Number one, life expectancies continue to grow longer. Number two, technology continues to advance. Now, while operating technology will probably remain simple, creating it likely will not be. This might lead to a renewed focus on learning and education. And history is a very important part of education. So future people may be way more knowledgeable on their history than we currently are. And even if they aren't, that knowledge may be available.

Another thing to consider is how humanity progresses. What is important to these future people? Which topics related to history do they find most important?

Now, possibly the most important part. Loss of historical knowledge. An apocalyptic or even devastating event could wipe out chunks of history. Political regimes could also affect what survives. For example, when someone sacked someone else and burned the library at Alexandria. (I figured I'd display my own lack of historical knowledge :P) Strict regimes might make a concerted effort to wipe out certain parts of their history.

History is very complicated. Not sure what else to say.
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Personal note:
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I'd say whomever is left after the great nuclear waring - will have a tough go
both in the rebuilding - but by the contamination - that will kill millions!
How will it impact future people's having suffered from nuclear contamination
- seems to be a major factor in any foreseen recoveries - world wide.
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We are close to this possibility of a nuclear exchange for reasons of insecurity
and those who are afraid to lose their positions power while in office.
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The world is what we made of it! The ongoing turmoil around the globe shows
us that mankind is walking a very tight line of interactions which will suffer the
entire world order!
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There will be no winners - the Blue Marble we live on today will be far different
than it was - after a nuclear war. Massive death and contamination will spread
world-wide. And what once was - will be gone - and whose left will suffer the
extremes - of which will kill many more.
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This is a scenario I forecast - I'm sure it could be far worse than I surmise -
as I will have died long before the actual events have taken place.
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My offspring if any will have no doubt suffer from this exercise of a nuclear
exchange - and just how many will survive - God only knows.

We could just have sterilized the entire planet into an uninhabited planet ball
of radioactive waste - and not anywhere near - of what it once was!?
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An we called ourselves Human's - yea right!
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