Afghans Wonder ‘What About Me?’ as American Troops Prepare to Withdraw

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Afghans Wonder ‘What About Me?’ as American Troops Prepare to Withdraw
By: Thomas Gibbons-Neff - New York Times - 04-14-21
Re: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/14/w...ithdrawal.html

Many Afghans fear that without the umbrella of American protection, the country will be unable to preserve its modest gains toward democracy and women’s rights.

Photo link: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021...y=90&auto=webp
Students at Mawoud Academy in Kabul, Afghanistan, last month. The planned withdrawal of U.S. troops and the Taliban’s likely return to power have raised fears about the future of education for women and girls.Credit...Kiana Hayeri for The New York Times

KABUL, Afghanistan — A female high school student in Kabul, Afghanistan’s war-scarred capital, is worried that she won’t be allowed to graduate. A pomegranate farmer in Kandahar wonders if his orchards will ever be clear of Taliban land mines. A government soldier in Ghazni fears he will never stop fighting.

Three Afghans from disparate walks of life, now each asking the same question: What will become of me when the Americans leave?

President Biden on Tuesday vowed to withdraw all American troops by Sept. 11, nearly 20 years after the first Americans arrived to drive out Al Qaeda following the 2001 terrorist attacks. The American withdrawal ends the longest war in United States history, but it is also likely to be the start of another difficult chapter for Afghanistan’s people.

“I am so worried about my future. It seems so murky. If the Taliban take over, I lose my identity,” said Wahida Sadeqi, 17, an 11th grader at Pardis High School in Kabul. “It is about my existence. It is not about their withdrawal. I was born in 2004 and I have no idea what the Taliban did to women, but I know women were banned from everything.”

Uncertainty hangs over virtually every facet of life in Afghanistan. It is unclear what the future holds and if the fighting will ever stop. For two decades, American leaders have pledged peace, prosperity, democracy, the end of terrorism and rights for women. Few of those promises have materialized in vast areas of Afghanistan, but now even in the cities where real progress occurred, there is fear that everything will be lost when the Americans leave.

The Taliban, the extremist group that once controlled most of the country and continues to fight the government, insist that the elected president step down. Militias are increasing in prominence and power, and there is talk of civil war after the U.S. withdrawal.

Afghans watched with cautious optimism when Mr. Biden assumed office in January. Many had hoped he would reverse the Trump administration’s rushed pledge to withdraw all U.S. troops by May after brokering a shaky peace deal with the Taliban last year.

Afghan leaders were convinced that the new American president would be a better ally, who would not immediately withdraw the troops that have helped keep the Taliban at bay and out of major cities.

Since the Afghan government and the Taliban began peace talks in Qatar late last year, fighting between them has surged, along with civilian casualties. On Wednesday, the United Nations’ mission in Afghanistan reported that in the first three months of the year there were 573 civilians killed and 1,210 wounded, a 29 percent increase over the same period in 2020. More than 40,000 civilians have been killed since the start of the war.

2nd photo: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021...y=90&auto=webp
A police checkpoint in Kabul in January.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times

Over two decades, the American mission evolved from hunting terrorists to helping the government build the institutions of a functioning government, dismantle the Taliban and empower women. But the U.S. and Afghan militaries were never able to effectively destroy the Taliban, allowing the insurgents to stage a comeback.

The Taliban never recognized Afghanistan’s democratic government. And they appear closer than ever to achieving the goal of their insurgency: to return to power and establish a government based on their extremist view of Islam.

Women would be most at risk under Taliban rule. When the group controlled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, it banned women from taking most jobs or receiving educations and practically made them prisoners in their own homes.

“It is too early to comment on the subject. We need to know much more,” said Fatima Gailani, an Afghan government negotiator who is involved in the continuing peace talks with the Taliban. “One thing is certain: It is about time that we learn how to rely on ourselves. Women of Afghanistan are totally different now. They are a force in our country; no one can deny them their rights or status.”

Afghanistan’s shaky democracy — propped up by billions of American dollars — has given way to an educated urban class that includes women like Ms. Gailani. Many of them were born in Afghanistan in the 1990s and came of age during the U.S. occupation of the country. Now these women are journalists, part of civil society and members of government.

In the countryside, by contrast, fighting, poverty and oppression remain regular parts of life. Despite the challenges, residents found some comfort in knowing that Afghan forces, backed by the American military, were keeping the peace at least in some areas.

3rd photo image: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021...y=90&auto=webp
Packing pomegranates in the Arghandab district of Kandahar Province in November. One farmer said he had been displaced from his home for two months because of the heavy fighting there.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times

Haji Abdul Samad, 52, a pomegranate farmer from the Arghandab district of Kandahar Province, has been displaced from his home for two months because of the heavy fighting there.

“I am too tired of my life. We are now in a position to beg,” Mr. Samad said. “The Americans are responsible for the troubles, hardships that we are going through. Now they are going to leave with their troops, with no peace, no progress. They just want to leave their war behind.”

Fears about the future are as palpable in the presidential palace in Kabul as they are in far-flung corners of the country. And people across Afghanistan are confused about who will soon be in charge.

The Taliban have repeatedly called for President Ashraf Ghani to step down to make way for an interim government, or most likely, their own. Mr. Ghani has refused, instead pushing for elections but also opening the door to more fighting and a potential civil war. The peace talks in Qatar have faltered and the Taliban have all but backed out of proposed talks in Turkey.

“Ghani will be increasingly isolated. Power brokers see every one of his moves as designed to keep himself and his deputies at the helm,” said Torek Farhadi, an adviser to former President Hamid Karzai. “Reality is, free and fair elections are not possible in the country amid war. In fact, it could fuel more violence.”

4th photo link: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021...y=90&auto=webp
Members of the Taliban in Laghman Province last year. Many fear that the extremist group will return to power after the Americans leave. Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times

As American troops prepare to leave and fractures form in the Afghan government, militias controlled by powerful local warlords are once more rising to prominence and attacking government forces.

The American withdrawal will undoubtedly be a massive blow to morale for the Afghan security forces, spread across the country at hundreds of checkpoints, inside bases and along violent front lines. For years, the U.S. presence has meant that American air power, if needed, was nearby. But since the Trump administration’s deal with the Taliban, those airstrikes have become much less frequent, occurring only in the most dire of situations.

Without American military support, Afghan government troops are up against a Taliban enemy who is frequently more experienced and better equipped than the average foot soldier.

The history of Afghanistan has been one of foreign invasion and withdrawal: the British in the 19th century and the Soviets in the 20th. After each invasion, the country underwent a period of infighting and civil war.

“It is not the right time to withdraw their troops,” said Major Saifuddin Azizi, a commando commander in the southeastern province of Ghazni, where fighting has been especially brutal in recent days. “It is unreasonable, hasty and a betrayal to us. It pushes Afghanistan into another civil war. Afghanistan’s destiny will look like it did two decades ago.”

5th photo link: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021...y=90&auto=webp
The city of Kandahar in southern Afghanistan. An Afghan Army official recently said the Taliban would have overtaken the city if not for U.S. air support.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times

Reporting was contributed by Fahim Abed, Najim Rahim and Fatima Faizi from Kabul, and Taimoor Shah from Kandahar.

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The Crucial Questions for Afghanistan
By: Adam Nossiter - New York Times - 04-14-21
Re: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/14/w...ithdrawal.html

1st Photo link: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021...y=90&auto=webp
A view of Kabul last year.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times

The reality of an imminent American withdrawal from Afghanistan differs from its long-anticipated likelihood. Already the anxiety engendered by this new certainty in the capital, Kabul, and other urban centers is making itself felt.

Afghans’ fear is multifaceted, evoked by the Taliban’s grim record, bitter and vivid memories of civil war and the widely acknowledged weakness of the current government. These conditions in turn push Afghan thinking in one direction: The country’s government and armed forces won’t survive without American support. Many American policymakers, security officials and diplomats concur with this gloomy view. Just this week, the U.S. intelligence assessment, presented to Congress, suggested as much: “The Afghan government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support.”

During their five years in power, 1996-2001, the Taliban operated one of the world’s most oppressive and theocratic regimes, and there is little in their public posture and behavior during the group’s years of insurgency to suggest much has changed, at least ideologically.

In Afghanistan’s cities, the new middle-class society that emerged under the American security umbrella over the last 20 years dread a return to that era of rule.

Still, it is unlikely that the Taliban will be able to roll into Kabul as they did in September 1996 and simply reimpose their Islamic Emirate. Too much has changed in Afghanistan’s capital and other urban hubs since then. The Taliban also seem to recognize that they will need to rely on international recognition and aid in order to effectively govern. To that end, some analysts say, there is some imperative to find political solutions to achieving their desired return to power.

And, most important, there are too many potential centers of armed resistance that will not go down quietly. And that in turn would lead to an intensification of the civil war that is already consuming much of the country.

With the Biden’s administration’s announcement on Wednesday of a complete withdrawal of American forces by Sept. 11, there are still several questions that will need to be answered between now and then.

What does an American withdrawal mean for women and minorities in Afghanistan?

2nd photo link: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021...y=90&auto=webp
Students at Mawoud Academy in Kabul, Afghanistan, last month. Two and a half years ago, a suicide bomber detonated an explosive vest during an algebra class at the center.Credit...Kiana Hayeri for The New York Times

Critical Point:

The contemporary Taliban have made a series of unambiguous statements about the role of women that cannot be regarded as reassuring. Taliban negotiators have at times said they support women’s rights, but only under strict Islamic law. The group's deputy chief, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, said in a speech late last year: “The only work done under the shadow of occupation, in the name of women’s rights, is the promotion of immorality and anti-Islamic culture.”

This statement and others are consistent with Taliban practices in areas they now control in Afghanistan, according to Human Rights Watch, which reports that contemporary Taliban officials, including “morality” officials, have reinforced already tight strictures on women. Taliban courts have imposed “lashings” on women — men also — for “moral crimes,” according to the rights group.

Today, girls make up some 40 percent of Afghanistan’s students. This is highly unlikely to continue under a Taliban regime. In practice, Taliban officials are opposed to education for girls, although there are exceptions, particularly in the north. But in some districts in southern Afghanistan, there are no schools for girls, period. Where the Taliban have already made a deal with the government on schools, they often forbid subjects like social sciences or English for girls, substituting religious subjects.

As the Afghan government tries to negotiate the terms of a permanent cease-fire with the Taliban, just four of its 21 representatives are women. And there have been no specific conditions put forward around their protections under any kind of peace deal.

During the Taliban era, there was widespread persecution and even massacres, of minority communities like the Hazara, an ethnic group that is mostly Shiite in a country where Sunnis predominate. Today’s Taliban, overwhelmingly Pashtun as before, single out the Hazara for mistreatment when they capture them at roadblocks, persecute them in their makeshift prisons, and have given no indication that they will protect minority rights in a government under their control.

What the Afghan Women Fear is the Tailiban!

What happens to the February 2020 agreement between the United States and the Taliban?

The February 2020 deal between the United States and the Taliban laid out the conditions and timeline under which the United States would withdraw from Afghanistan. But what was asked in return, such as taking counterterrorism measures and starting talks with the Afghan government, in some cases has been difficult to enforce.

The United States is now fulfilling its pledge, though later than the original May 1 deadline agreed to in the February deal.

“We are not agreeing with delay after May 1,” Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesman, said on local television on Tuesday. “Any delay after May 1 is not acceptable for us.”

Whether the Taliban will view this delayed withdrawal as a breach of the agreement and resume large-scale attacks against Afghan and American forces is not clear.

QUESTION! - Will the Taliban honor their commitment to negotiate power-sharing with the Afghan government, or will they pursue a military victory?

Another Photo link: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021...y=90&auto=webp
Members of the Taliban in Laghman Province last year.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times

The Taliban commitment to negotiations with any entity other than the Americans has always been ambiguous. Now it is even more so. Their spokesmen are now saying they will not even attend a proposed conference with the Americans that is scheduled to begin in Turkey on April 24 as long as there are foreign troops in Afghanistan.

The Taliban regard the government in Kabul as a puppet of the Americans and barely hide their contempt for it. They have never committed to a power-sharing arrangement with the government, much less elections. For its part, the Kabul government has repeatedly expressed its belief that the Taliban’s true intention is to seize power by force once the Americans leave, and that they will reinstate the harsh Islamic Emirate of the 1990s. The Kabul government is expecting a bloody endgame, and is likely to get it.

Also what does this mean for President Ashraf Ghani and his administration?

The survival of the current administration in Kabul is entirely dependent on the performance of the Afghan armed forces. Right now, the picture is relatively dark. The Taliban believe they have already militarily won the war with Afghan forces, and they may be right.

Afghan soldiers and police have abandoned dozens of checkpoints, while others have been taken by force, while the attrition rate among security forces is considered unsustainable by Western and Afghan security officials.

Still, as long as Afghanistan’s president, Ashraf Ghani. can continue to maintain his elite special force of 20,000-30,000 men and pay them, thanks to the Americans, he may be able to maintain his hold on power, for a time. The Americans fund the Afghan military to the tune of $4 billion a year; if those funds are cut by a Congress unwilling to pay for somebody else’s war, Mr. Ghani is in trouble.

Also likely to be emboldened by the American withdrawal, and constituting a further threat to the Ghani government, are the forces controlled by the country’s numerous and potent regional leaders. These power brokers may now be tempted to cut deals with the side that clearly has the upper hand, the Taliban, or buckle down and try to secure their small portions of the country and again take up the mantle of warlords.

Also:

Will terrorists groups like the Islamic State and Al Qaeda be able to pose a threat again?

American agencies have said they do not believe Al Qaeda or other terrorist groups pose an immediate threat to the United States from Afghanistan — although the congressionally mandated Afghan Study Group said earlier this year that withdrawal “could lead to a reconstitution of the terrorist threat to the U.S. homeland within 18 months to three years.”

Separately, the Islamic State affiliate in Afghanistan was militarily defeated their eastern stronghold in late 2019. But smaller and more amorphous elements continue to operate with low intensity in the region, including in Kabul, waiting to take advantage of whatever might happen in the coming months.

more;

Can the Afghan security forces protect cities after the Americans are gone?
The American and Afghan security officials have repeatedly expressed skepticism about the ability of Afghan forces to hold out for long once the Americans leave.

The Taliban have spent the past months capturing bases and outposts and installing checkpoints near capital cities around the country. So far, they have deliberately stopped short of directly attacking these hubs as they negotiate their return to power with both the United States and with the Afghan government.

If the Taliban decide to begin military operations in the coming months against these hubs, the Afghan security forces’ low morale, uncertain pay, high casualty rates, and fear that the sudden absence of crucial U.S. air support will doom them could all mean that the military and police may to crumble sooner rather than later. U.S. military and intelligence officials have suggested a limited timeline — a handful years at best.

THAT'S is THE MOST CRITICAL QUESTION!

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Personal note: We will have to wait and watch closely what happens after we pull out.
Will we have an Embassy there to monitor the on goings after we pull out? Will any other
country(s) remain in the area - if we pull out - to help restrain any upheaval's?
You just know their will be some retaliation's once we leave. Abuse will no doubt come into
play and the woman will loose their rights or freedoms from the holy leaders. The old system
will try to re-employ - or alter - any religious elements that these women have gained while
we were there. There holy men tend to mistreat them often if they don't fall in line. With their
religious guidelines. Surely there will be mistreatments - and the women there - know this!
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Something we need to watch over!
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