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Old 06-27-2017, 06:51 AM
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Arrow The Chaos of the Qatar Crisis

The Chaos of the Qatar Crisis
By Andrew Bernard - posted in The American Interest - 6-27-17
RE: https://www.the-american-interest.co...-qatar-crisis/


AFFAIRS OF STATE
The Chaos of the Qatar Crisis
ANDREW BERNARD
On Friday, the Saudi-led bloc finally issued its demands to Qatar. The highlights of the 13-point list;

Per The Guardian, they include:

1. Curb diplomatic ties with Iran and close its diplomatic missions there. Expel members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and cut off any joint military cooperation with Iran. Only trade and commerce with Iran that complies with US and international sanctions will be permitted.

2. Sever all ties to “terrorist organisations”, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State, al-Qaida and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Formally declare those entities as terrorist groups.

3. Shut down al-Jazeera and its affiliate stations.

4. Shut down news outlets that Qatar funds, directly and indirectly, including Arabi21, Rassd, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed and Middle East Eye.

5. Immediately terminate the Turkish military presence in Qatar and end any joint military cooperation with Turkey inside Qatar.

It remains unclear what took so long to compile this list. Last week the State Department said that it was “mystified” by the failure of the Saudi-led bloc to issue clear demands. The list itself doesn’t contain any real surprises, in fact it’s almost identical to an apparently fake list that circulated on social media soon after the crisis broke out.

That the Saudi-led bloc has been unprepared and incompetent is one thing, but the U.S. response has been troubling. President Trump on June 9th seemed to take credit for precipitating the crisis just hours after Secretary of State Tillerson had pushed for mediation. What might generously have been described as a Good Cop/Bad Cop approach is now starting to look more like a lack of strategy and coordination within the Trump Administration. On June 14th, just days after the President’s hardline stand in which he accused Qatar of involvement in financing terrorism, Secretary of Defense Mattis signed a $12 billion deal with the Qataris to purchase F-15s. After pushing for the Saudis to issue demands, Tillerson described the ultimatum as “very difficult for Qatar to meet” and urged a conciliatory approach.

Even accepting the most generous reading of the Administration’s approach, there’s evidence that it’s starting to backfire. Last night, Iran’s President Rouhani spoke with Sheikh Tamim, the Emir of Qatar, to offer his support. Turkey has rushed to deploy troops to the peninsula, and while their deployment is small it includes a number of armored vehicles that they’ve been keen to display in regional media parading through Doha. If the goal here was for Saudi, the UAE, and Egypt to pose a united front against Qatar and Hamas, then Egypt already seems to have broken that front in signing a deal to restore electricity to the Gaza strip last week. Even Congress seems to be uncomfortable with what’s going on. Senator Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, wrote in a letter to Tillerson today that he would not vote for future arms sales to the GCC until the crisis is resolved.

Speaking of Tillerson, recent media reports about the State Department are both unflattering and concerning. Among other revelations, the New York Times reported over the weekend that:

Three foreign ambassadors — one from Asia and two from Europe — said they had taken to contacting the National Security Council because the State Department does not return their calls or does not offer substantive answers when it does.

Most Americans’ eyes glaze over when they hear the phrase “interagency process” or read about “State department reform.” The number of people outside of Washington, D.C. who could name a former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs could probably fit into a single room. Unfortunately, that does not make those issues and positions any less vital. President Trump has often said that he intends to put American interests first and to drain the swamp. But in affairs of state it’s awfully difficult to find out where your interests lie or how deep the swamp is without sound advice and steady hands. That the State Department is in need of reform is beyond dispute (see James Jeffrey’s essay in our latest issue), but there’s little reason to think that the subject matter experts who occupy the Assistant Secretary of State positions are where the swamp should be drained.

The crisis over Qatar, in the grand scheme of things, appears to be minor. We don’t know what the Saudi-led bloc will do when their 10-day ultimatum is up, but compared with North Korea or the issues in Eastern Syria there’s little reason to think that the crisis will spiral into World War III. But the smallness of the crisis makes the mixed messaging, lack of coordination, and absence of apparent American strategy or goals for resolving the crisis all the more troubling. Filling the State Department and the National Security Council with experienced advisors to help carry out the President’s agenda would go a long way towards assuaging such doubts.
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O Almighty Lord God, who neither slumberest nor sleepest; Protect and assist, we beseech thee, all those who at home or abroad, by land, by sea, or in the air, are serving this country, that they, being armed with thy defence, may be preserved evermore in all perils; and being filled with wisdom and girded with strength, may do their duty to thy honour and glory; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

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