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Old 12-07-2016, 07:07 PM
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Post A NATO to Contain China? Key US Commander Doesn’t See it

A NATO to Contain China? Key US Commander Doesn’t See it
By: Aaron Mehta
RE: http://www.defensenews.com/policy

A Pacific NATO fundamentally misunderstands China's role in the region, PACOM head Harris says.

SIMI VALLEY, California – As the US continues to rebalance its military focus to the Asia-Pacific, some have speculated that a NATO-like institution in the region might be needed to counteract the expansion of Chinese power.

But Adm. Harry Harris, the head of US Pacific Command, doesn’t see that as a feasible solution – and a top Pacific defense ally agrees it would not be a tenable one.

“I do not believe we’re ever going to see a NATO in Asia,” Harris said in response to a question at the Reagan National Defense Forum Dec. 3.

One site: Click here for all our coverage of the 2016 Reagan National Defense Forum .

Harris laid out his reasoning in simple terms: NATO was formed when there was a clear, concise enemy in the Soviet Union, and countries were lined up in support or opposition of Moscow. And despite much of the rhetoric about China that was heard at the forum, other nations in the Pacific have a much more complex relationship with their neighbor.

“In Asia, there’s not that compelling, single, focused enemy, if you will. China is part of Asia, they are part of our economic life in America and all that, so we’re not going to see in my opinion a NATO in Asia.”

Instead, Harris said, the Pentagon is focused on developing multi-lateral security networks in the region. As examples, he pointed to both the growing trilateral military cooperation between the US, Japan and South Korea, as well as counterterrorism activities among countries in Southeast Asia.

In addition, the ASEAN countries provide a broad framework for cooperation, even if the organization does not amount to a defense pact, Harris said. The ties between those nations are particularly useful for countering piracy or kidnapping for ransom, he noted.

That focus on regional networks, and in particular ASEAN, fits into the moves announced by Secretary of Defense Ash Carter in late September, part of what he called the next phase in the outgoing Obama administration’s rebalance to the Pacific.

“Regional nations are developing a networked, multilateral regional security architecture — from one end of the region to the other,” Carter said in a Sept. 29 speech. Of the ASEAN meeting, “we’re going to reflect on our shared interests and principles and identify new ways to partner together to further realize them.”

The Pentagon is looking to plus up several initiatives to support that vision in the fiscal year 2018 budget request, although that funding request will be modified by the incoming Trump administration before it is submitted to Congress.

Michael Auslin, an analyst with the American Enterprise Institute and author of the upcoming book " The End of the Asian Century," agrees that a Pacific NATO equivalent is "unsuited" for the region.

"The US Government and Pacific Command have it right, in terms of building multilateral partnerships, and taking advantage of others, like ASEAN," Auslin said. "Where we can do more, besides ensuring that we don't get left behind in regional trade agreements, is first, in partnering more effectively with our allies, especially Japan, in their efforts to build communities of interests; and second, in better linking our efforts throughout the region, so that we don't treat the East China Sea as separate from the South China Sea or Indian Ocean. It is all one interconnected strategic operating space, Asia's 'Mediterranean,' so to speak."

The complicated relationship between US allies in the Pacific and China was underlined earlier in at the forum event here, when Singaporean defense minister Ng Eng Hen offered his take on the region.

Ng warned that the US cannot simply focus on trying to contain China militarily, as it was “neither possible nor strategically necessary to contain China’s rise.” Instead, the minister said, the US needs to focus on growing relationships on the trade side – which is where the apparent death of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement is so disappointing for Singapore.

The Obama administration, including Carter, has supported TPP as a vital tool for increasing US influence in Asia, but members of Congress – and president-elect Donald Trump – have opposed the agreement.

“The US presence in the Asia-Pacific region, based predominantly on security, is unidimensional and structurally brittle,” Ng said. “The Trans-Pacific Partnership would have been a concrete, tangible commitment, and to continue to be a dominant force the US needs a multifaceted relationship with countries in Asia. And China is pursuing that multifaceted relationship with many countries.”

The minister rattled off a series of statistics underlining that situation, noting that China is the largest or second largest trading partner with “nearly every country” in Asia, and highlighting the economic ties that exist between the US and China already.

“China is now an integral leader in the global systems of trade, finance and security,” Ng concluded.

Auslin, however, predicts that China's economy will start to stagnate in coming years, which will create its own set of challenges.

"It is likely that America and its partners will face questions about how to handle a stagnating or weakening China, as much as we have been worried about a growing China," he said. "So, worrying about a united response to China may not fit the strategic necessity of ensuring that China's slowdown does not cause instability in the region."

Updated 12/7/2016 at 3:43 PM Eastern with comment from Auslin.
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