Iraqis, too, learned lessons from Gulf War

[thedrifter]

Iraqis, too, learned lessons from Gulf War

By Jim Michaels
USA Today



KUWAIT CITY ? Iraqi ground forces are not setting up trench lines at the Kuwaiti border to defend against a U.S.-led attack, as they did in 1991. Instead, experts say, they will rely on military ?strong points? along the main routes to Baghdad to slow advancing U.S. forces and draw them into urban battles.
Independent military analysts say Iraq?s military learned from its mistakes during the Gulf War in 1991. Iraqi commanders dug miles of elaborate trenches in the desert on the Kuwait-Saudi border that were manned by thousands of soldiers. The open trenches were vulnerable to air attack, and U.S. commanders sent the bulk of their forces westward, bypassing the fortified positions.

U.S. military officials decline to discuss how Iraqi forces might respond to a U.S.-led attack. They are reluctant to reveal how much they know about Iraqi troop locations and tactics. But analysts say this time, most U.S. forces would enter southern Iraq unopposed, possibly traveling for dozens of miles before encountering any resistance.

Under this scenario, Saddam Hussein would try to inflict casualties and extend a war long enough to turn American and world opinion. ?Their only hope for any kind of a semblance of a victory will be dragging it out long enough for someone to call a cease-fire,? says retired Army major general William Nash. ?If he does have a strategy, it?s to win this thing by not losing.?

Independent military experts say Iraqis will try to draw U.S. forces deeper into the country and then delay the tanks and mechanized infantry as they drive up the main routes along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers from Kuwait.

The U.S. military hopes to open a northern front, sending troops in from Turkey. But if Turkey?s parliament rejects or delays a vote on a request to deploy U.S. forces from there, the U.S. military could airlift troops into northern Iraq.

In addition to armed strong points along the road, the Iraqi army could slow a U.S. advance by blowing up bridges, using refugees to clog roads and flooding rivers to wash out roads, military experts say. Iraq?s forces also could torch oil fields.

There are signs the Iraqi regime is prepared to take even more extreme measures. A military parade last week in Baghdad included white-robed men and women vowing to launch suicide attacks against invading forces. Iraqi Vice President Taha Yasin has promised suicide bombers would be deployed in a war.

Newsweek reported this week that Saddam loyalists in uniforms identical to those worn by U.S. and British forces plan to pose as Western invaders and slaughter Iraqi civilians in front of Arab camera crews. There also is concern that Iraq?s forces could use biological, chemical and nuclear weapons against U.S.-led forces.

Drawing forces deeper

Meaningful Iraqi resistance isn?t expected until the invasion forces are well into Iraq. ?The Iraqis will not defend below the Euphrates,? says retired Marine lieutenant general Bernard Trainor, a military analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations. ?They may write off Basra.? The strategic city 25 miles north of the Kuwaiti border straddles main routes to Baghdad.

?Saddam will leave the borders,? agrees Mohammed Kadry Said, a retired Egyptian major general who fought in the U.S.-led coalition in the Gulf War. ?He will not fight there.?

Military experts say they believe Saddam would like to draw U.S. forces into urban street fighting, which would partly neutralize the U.S. military?s technological edge and limit U.S. firepower. It is more difficult to use artillery, tanks and air support in a city filled with civilians.

But Iraq?s armed forces would have to be motivated to fight street by street. ?Defending urban areas requires large numbers of forces that are willing to stand and die,? says Anthony Cordesman, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. ?And it?s not clear they have any of them.?

The Iraqi military can deploy about 375,000 regular army troops, about half the number it had before the Gulf War. There also are about 25,000 in the Special Republican Guard, the forces expected to put up the toughest fight. Iraq has about 2,000 tanks, only about half of which work. It will be virtually impossible for the Iraqis to deploy what is left of their air force. Any aircraft they try to launch would be shot down quickly.

Troop movements

The Iraqi military has deployed two army corps north, facing its border with Turkey, and two corps south of Baghdad, according to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. A fifth corps is charged with defending the border with Iran. The two countries fought a decade-long war in the 1980s that left hundreds of thousands dead. Republican Guard units have established two defensive rings around Baghdad. The Republican Guard units are made up largely of officers and men from Saddam?s hometown of Tikrit. They are well paid and considered much more loyal to the regime than regular conscripts.

Said says Iraq?s conventional forces would probably fold quickly. But U.S. forces could encounter resistance if they are drawn into Iraq?s major cities and towns.

Each Iraqi city has a ruling Baath Party organization that could coordinate with Iraqi intelligence and local militias to set up defenses, Said says. Even if the ground battle is quick and Iraq?s conventional forces are knocked out, these loosely organized local forces could sow mines and booby traps in and around major cities. ?If they are planning to make it an urban battle, every city will have their own defense plans,? Said says.

He also says the Iraqis could try to upset the U.S. military?s carefully planned military operation by prematurely triggering a war, though he says any such effort would ultimately fail. They could fire missiles at Israel or Kuwait, or breach the Kuwaiti border in hopes of forcing the United States into a ground war before it is ready.

?The main point is to do something to disturb the American plan,? Said says. ?Maybe the Iraqis will start the war.?



Sempers,

Roger

[SEATJERKER]

...I'm sure that it would disturb us greatly if they fire the first shot...Yea, thats it, disturb us greatly....