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Old 02-21-2017, 02:03 PM
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Cool Complexities of the Iranian and North Korean Threats

Complexities of the Iranian and North Korean Threats
Date 2/21/17
RE: http://www.soufangroup.com/tsg-intel...orean-threats/

Bottom Line Up Front:

• Key U.S. adversaries Iran and North Korea each decided to challenge the Trump
administration early by testing ballistic missiles.

• The two threats differ in that North Korea is a nuclear state that also poses a significant
conventional military threat to its region.

• Iran is weak conventionally and has accepted a nuclear compromise, but ably uses
proxies and regional allies to exert significant influence throughout the Middle East.

• Iran, a major oil exporter, is vulnerable to international sanctions, whereas North Korea
is isolated economically and dependent on China.

During its first month in office, the Trump administration - characterized both Iran and North Korea as key national security ‘problems’ and threats to U.S. interests and allies. The new administration was given an early opportunity to articulate its policy toward both actors when each challenged the U.S. within days of President Trump taking office. In defiance of UN Security Council resolutions, Iran tested a medium range ballistic missile on January 29, and North Korea tested a similar system on February 11. Although Iran and North Korea have long cooperated in the development of ballistic missiles, there are no indications that the two coordinated the timing of their respective tests. The Iranian test—coupled with an attack the same week on a Saudi ship by Iran’s ally, the Houthi rebels in Yemen—caused the United States to put Iran ‘officially on notice,’ implying that the U.S. would respond to such actions. The Trump administration subsequently sanctioned 25 individuals and companies involved in Iran’s missile program and in its support for Lebanese Hizballah. The U.S. also moved the destroyer U.S.S. Cole into the Red Sea, potentially able to strike Houthi missile locations on the coast. The U.S. response to the North Korean test was more muted, consisting of Trump appearing alongside Japan’s visiting Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to state America’s ‘100 percent’ support for Japan.

The differing U.S. response to each missile test reflects the complexities of the threats posed by the two countries. North Korea is already a nuclear state, and has conducted several nuclear tests over the past few years. With its border a mere 35 miles north of South Korea’s capital, Seoul, North Korea poses a significant conventional military threat to one of Asia’s largest economies, and the global economy by extension. North Korea is a ‘one-man regime’ ruled by the young Kim Jong Un, who has shown no reservations about eliminating potential opponents, allegedly including his own half-brother this past week. North Korea—which lies isolated on the Korean Peninsula—does not hold genuine elections for any high positions, and appears to pay very little attention to public opinion.

The challenge posed by Iran differs sharply with North Korea. In contrast to their isolated North Korean counterparts, Iranian citizens insist on contact with the international community, and express their sentiment in elections for a parliament and a president. The president is the head of government, although clearly subordinate to an un-elected ‘Supreme Leader.’ Under significant pressure from international sanctions, Iran accepted a compromise with six powers in 2015—including the United States - that precludes Iran from quickly developing a nuclear weapon for at least 15 years. Iran accepted this agreement in large part because of public resentment over the effect of sanctions on Iran’s economy and Iran’s diplomatic isolation. Unlike North Korea, Iran is not a major conventional military threat to any of its neighbors. It can attack Israel and the Persian Gulf states with missiles, but lacks the military capability or logistical capacity to invade or destroy any of these U.S. allies or their economic lifelines. The U.S. Navy expresses full confidence that it could quickly reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz chokepoint should Iran try to close the waterway. However, Iran does have the ability to exert influence through pro-Iranian, mostly Shi’a Muslim proxies and allies in the region.

Another key difference that complicates U.S. policy stems from the differing degrees of global integration between Iran and North Korea. Iran is a major oil exporter and—because of the buying power held by Iranians—a significant consumer of European and other luxury goods. This high degree of integration in the global economy made Iran considerably vulnerable to international sanctions imposed from 2010 to 2013. Iran does not enjoy the patronage of any major power that can shield it from U.S. and regional pressure. Therefore, Trump administration threats to re-impose U.S. sanctions on Iran could potentially be an effective tool to curb Iran’s provocative behavior; European and Asian countries and companies will be encouraged to adjust their engagement with Iran according to shifts in U.S. policy.

By contrast, North Korea remains relatively isolated from the global economy. Thus, U.S., UN, and multilateral sanctions tend to have limited effect on its overall economy. North Korea’s main economic outlet and political patron is China, and any successful U.S. policy toward North Korea—particularly one that relies on economic sanctions—hinges on the degree of cooperation from Beijing. China’s February 2017 one-year cutoff of coal imports from North Korea—an expression of displeasure at the Kim regime’s actions—may indicate China’s intention to cooperate with the Trump administration on North Korea. China seems to be encouraged by the Trump administration’s apparent willingness to consider a direct U.S.-North Korea dialogue, a policy tool that Beijing has long encouraged..For tailored research and analysis, please contact: info@soufangroup.com
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O Almighty Lord God, who neither slumberest nor sleepest; Protect and assist, we beseech thee, all those who at home or abroad, by land, by sea, or in the air, are serving this country, that they, being armed with thy defence, may be preserved evermore in all perils; and being filled with wisdom and girded with strength, may do their duty to thy honour and glory; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

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