Ukraine crisis explained: World War 3 fears as Russia deploys troops to border

[Boats]

Ukraine crisis explained: World War 3 fears as Russia deploys troops to border
By: Chris Hughes - Defense & Security Editor for Mirror News UK - 01-21-22
Re: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-...mpaign=organic

The ongoing crisis in Ukraine has been being stoked by Russia for nearly a decade now as Russia has over 100,000 troops amassed at the border.

It has been building up since the 2013 Maidan protests in Kiev, sparked by Ukraine’s decision not to go ahead and sign an “association agreement” with the EU.

Instead it veered toward Russia, which temporarily was a relief to Moscow, but the protests exploded into violence and eventually President Viktor Yanukovych fled.

A new government was imposed and shortly after, in 2014, Russia invaded Crimea, which is part of Ukraine, and has continued to be occupied.

This sparked war between pro-Russian separatists in Donbas in east Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces, which has to this day killed 14,000, although it has settled into a 250 mile-long line of trenches.

The Crimea operation for Russia was near-bloodless, however, and was a huge and successful land-grab by Putin.

The problem for him, though, is that since then NATO has massively bolstered the Ukraine Army with weapons and training so it is better equipped than before.

NATO, including the UK has thousands of troops in the NATO member Baltic states, Latvia, Poland and Lithuania, to guard against Moscow aggression - but not in Ukraine which although friendly with NATO is not a member.

Putin is insisting no more countries neighbouring Russia can become members as he is concerned about NATO encroachment towards his country. And many in Russia agree.

The US has insisted it can offer no such guarantee - and Putin, with 126,000 troops on the border has boxed himself into a corner. He has to play the strongman, whilst knowing Russians coming home in body bags will be unpopular.

Note a satellite Image link: https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incomin...-in-Yelnya.jpg

Why are Russian troops threatening to attack?
Actually they are not.

They are merely building up on the border but because of their sheer weight of numbers it looks like an invasion force.

Putin and his ministers have insisted they have no intentions of attacking. But the suspicion is that Moscow will come up with a false pretext - a “false flag” operation in which they pretend to be Ukrainian forces and attack pro-Russian separatists, or even Russian regular troops, sparking the apparent need for a response.

It seems ludicrous but Russia is suspected of doing this many times before and it has become a classic tactic that can play reasonably well at home.

It’s also worth noting that there are exchanges of artillery, mortars and small arms fire, sniper shots, between both sides daily, along the 250 mile frontier in Donbas.

Ukraine photo link: https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incomin...9-Jan-2022.jpg
Ukraine soldiers conducts tactical exercises at one of the all-military training grounds of the southern Ukraine's Kherson region, just north of annexed Crimea ( Image: EyePress News/REX/Shutterstock)

Can Ukraine defend against Russian attack?

The short answer is perhaps not…but its forces are extremely well-motivated and are now very well-trained.

Russia’s troops are not well-paid and Ukrainian forces are relying on low -morale amongst them.

Ukrainian forces say they will “flank” Russian forces if they attack, harassing them in guerrilla attacks.

Newly acquired anti-tank weapons are a game changer for Ukraine and could knock out Russian tanks as they advance into Ukraine, creating panic among the infantry advance.

But the danger here is that Moscow’s commanders could then go all-out and unleash forces from other areas.

What does it mean for peace in Europe?

It means the possibility of a technical and modern war returning to Europe for the first time in decades and it is a real danger that goes wider than Ukraine, as history has proved before.

A red-line for Russia would be an offensive against a NATO member state, prompting other members legally to have to protect the one under attack.

There are systems in place to de-escalate, especially where nuclear war or first strikes are concerned but they may not work.

And Europe is buzzing with fighter jets and spy planes. Anything could happen and if two sides open fire over a mistaken identity or a split second bungle by a pilot it could spread quickly.

A photo of a Ukrainian solider: https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incomin...lve-Little.jpg

With the 56th Brigade, in a trench on the front line on January 18, 2022 in Pisky, Ukraine ( Image: Getty Images)

There is a momentum to conflict as history has been proved - often it is untoppable.

NATO states in Europe privately hope Putin will leave it at Ukraine. But US President Joe Biden has made the huge error of letting it slip that an American/ NATO response may not be as severe if Russian military action is limited to a minor incursion.

Could it start World War Three?

The truth is that many European countries, in particular the UK, are already at war with Russia through what is called “hybrid conflict” - a mixture of military threat, cyber attacks, espionage and political interference.

Moscow is throwing everything it has at undermining Europe with cyber attacks and political meddling. Anything to undermine the west, without a shot fired is being done.

But open, military warfare, on a global scale whilst extremely unlikely is a remote possibility. China has increasing links with Russia and that is a worry.

But Putin knows war is costly and it is already costing him billions in keeping his troops on high-alert for so long.

Diplomacy may prevail here and hybrid warfare, that is conflict that falls just below the threshold for military action may continue to threaten the UK, which is involved in a shadowy struggle against Russia through what is termed the “grey zone”- not open war as we know it, but a high-stakes struggle to stop Russia constantly undermining democracy without actually opening fire.

Will Britain be involved if conflict breaks out?

Yes in a limited way that does not involve regular troops in the short-term.

The UK has sent 2,000 anti-tank missiles and military trainers to teach Ukrainian forces how to fight Russian armor.

NATO has been pouring resources into Ukraine to help local troops defend against a Russian invasion.

It is very likely the British SAS and other special forces units will covertly be involved as military advisers and the UK’s intelligence agency MI6 is also involved, albeit from the shadows.

Ukraine is close to the UK, despite not being a NATO member.

Our paratroopers have exercised with Ukrainian forces, dropping into Ukraine alongside them in a veiled threat to Russia.

But sending combat forces from the UK to actually fight Russian troops is off the table for the moment and the British government has made that very clear.
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Personal note: Why is Putin so damn worried about Ukraine?
Why doesn't he show some prowess to China & North Korea
- why pick on Ukraine? What do they have he wants? He calls
it a security issue - why? The US hasn't done anything that
would trigger a full blown war? I call it his insecurity and
more media attention. What the hell started all this to begin
with?

[Boats]

I found an partial explainer: Why? Russia's Risky Options Beyond Full Ukraine Attack
By: Jamie Dettmer - VOA News Europe - 01-29-22
Re: https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-na...k/6418121.html

Ukraine’s leader and his defense and security aides are assessing Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s intentions differently from many of their Western counterparts. Are they just more stoical after eight years of persistent Russian provocations and a long-running war in eastern Ukraine—or are they misreading their Russian adversary?

Washington and London have both warned the chances are high that Putin will order an invasion of Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden has been warning for weeks of the “distinct possibility” Russia might invade Ukraine next month, and he reiterated the point Thursday in a phone discussion with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy, according to the White House.

Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, says he is “not optimistic” a Russian incursion into Ukraine can be stopped. He told the BBC while visiting Berlin there was still “a chance” an invasion could be halted, but added, “I’m not optimistic.”

Russia denies it is preparing to launch a major assault on Ukraine, accusing Western powers of alarmism. The Kremlin insists the more than 100,000 troops it has deployed along Ukraine’s borders are just taking part in exercises.

But Zelenskiy appears to suspect Moscow will do something short of launching a full-scale invasion and more likely will continue to wage the highly sophisticated form of psychological and hybrid warfare it has been using against Ukraine and Europe with growing intensity for the past decade and more.

The Ukrainian president has been calling for calm ahead of Wednesday’s meeting among officials of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France — known as the “Normandy format” — to discuss once again the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, nearly half of which has been occupied since 2014 by Russian soldiers and armed local proxies.

Asked at a news conference Friday for foreign media about the different assessments and of a possible rift with Biden, Zelenskiy cited his concerns over Ukraine’s economy, saying that talk of an imminent invasion is adversely affecting the economy. “For me, the question of the possible escalation is not less acute as for the United States and other partners,” he said.

But he complained the media was giving the impression we have an army in the streets and “that's not the case.” And he said Ukraine doesn’t “need this panic” because it is damaging the economy. “We may lose the current economy,” he added.

The Ukrainian leader pointedly took issue last week when the United States, Britain, Canada and Australia announced evacuations of personnel from their embassies. Zelenskiy and his aides expressed frustration, saying the withdrawal of some diplomatic staff was premature.

One official told VOA the evacuations undermined efforts to calm the fears of ordinary Ukrainians. The United States and Britain also have told their nationals to leave Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian officials, Zelenskiy has broached the issue of evacuations with U.S. officials, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, saying the withdrawal of staff is an “overreaction” and something Russia can exploit to sow fear and to destabilize.

Aside from worries about the economy and Ukrainian morale, though, Kyiv appears to be at odds with Washington and London over Putin’s strategy, as well as over how near he is to completing a military buildup that would allow him to launch a full throttle invasion.

According to Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, Russia doesn’t have enough troops in place to mount a full-scale invasion. He told reporters this week, “The number of Russian troops massed along the border of Ukraine and occupied territories of Ukraine is large, it poses a threat to Ukraine, a direct threat to Ukraine, however, at the moment, as we speak, this number is insufficient for a full-scale offensive against Ukraine along the entire Ukrainian border.”

Some independent Ukrainian analysts agree with Kyiv’s assessment that a full-scale invasion isn’t likely. “I don't believe there will be a full-scale military invasion,” said Taras Kuzio, an analyst at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based research group, and a professor at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy.

“In that sense, I agree with Ukrainian military officials,” he said in a recent British television debate. “There aren’t enough troops there. Ukraine is a huge territory. It has the third largest army in Europe. And if you're working on the basis of a three-to-one ratio of invading versus defending armies, which is the number you need to be successful, then Russia would need 500,000 to 600,000 troops to overcome Ukraine. It doesn't have that, and it's not projected to have that.”

Kuzio believes it is more likely Russia may mount an incursion around the Black Sea coast and expand on territory it holds in the Donbass region.

Ukrainian officials admit privately they are caught somewhat in a quandary. They need Western military assistance and materiel—from anti-tank rockets to surface-to-air missiles—and they need the West to be strong, to stand up to Putin and to deter Russia from any kind of attack, limited or otherwise. But they don’t want to talk up the threat, wreck their economy and panic their people. It is a fine line they’re walking, several officials told VOA.

Western officials say they have to be ready for all eventualities and they don’t want to be caught wrong-footed, as they were in 2014 when Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. Russia then encouraged and assisted armed proxies to seize part of the Donbass in the wake of a popular uprising that toppled Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, a Putin ally.

That means, they say, reinforcing NATO’s military presence in eastern Europe, in neighboring NATO countries, and making sure everyone understands the stakes are high. “Putin is unpredictable and any gaps he sees he will jump through; any weakness, he will exploit,” a senior NATO official told VOA.
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