The Costly Failure to Update Sky-Is-Falling Predictions

[The Patriot]

On March 6, Liz Specht, Ph.D., posted a thread on Twitter that immediately went viral. As of this writing, it has received over 100,000 likes and almost 41,000 retweets, and was republished at Stat News. It purported to "talk math" and reflected the views of "highly esteemed epidemiologists." It insisted it was "not a hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario," and that, while the predictions it contained might be wrong, they would not be "orders of magnitude wrong." It was also catastrophically incorrect.

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