The Patriot Files Forums  

Go Back   The Patriot Files Forums > Other Conflicts > Cold War

Post New Thread  Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-13-2019, 08:20 AM
Boats's Avatar
Boats Boats is offline
Senior Member
 

Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Sauk Village, IL
Posts: 21,784
Lightbulb An alliance between Russia and China is the next military threat

An alliance between Russia and China is the next military threat
By: Michael O'Hanlon & Adame Twardowski - The Hill
Re: https://thehill.com/opinion/national...ilitary-threat

The United States appears to be settling in for a protracted era of great power military competition. Ever since Russia seized Crimea and militarily intervened in eastern Ukraine five years ago, and as China began to militarize islands in the South China Sea while claiming virtually all surrounding waterways through its infamous “nine dash line” at about the same time, American defense officials of both parties have determined that rogue states and terrorist organizations should no longer be the epicenter of war planning and military resource allocation. The third offset strategy of the Obama administration and the national defense strategy of the Trump administration have followed, with their explicit reprioritization of defense objectives. After a quarter century without major worries over great power competition, we are back in an era that some consider, rightly or wrongly, echoes the Cold War.

China and Russia no longer share a common expansionist ideology. But realpolitik considerations are driving them together. Both are subject to U.S. sanctions of various types. Both have found themselves in the crosshairs of Pentagon planners as a result of their assertive regional activities--China mostly in the western Pacific, Russia mostly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, but both partially in regions as far away as Latin America and Africa as well. Both recognize that to stand up alone against a U.S.-led alliance system that accounts for 2/3 of world GDP and world military spending is very difficult; neither has any truly powerful allies of its own. Yet together, they dominate Eurasia, and their strengths complement each other--one is a huge land mass with lots of nuclear weapons and hydrocarbons, yet a modest and shrinking population; the other has become the world's other economic superpower already, as well as its #2 conventional military power by most metrics.

Some look at all the above and say that China and Russia will be natural allies as the years unfold. Others say such an assessment is nonsense given their mutual mistrust, and indeed the very proximity that could help them work together. How to resolve the contradiction? We would propose that much of the answer is in unpacking the term "alliance." There are at least four ways to look at the term, in increasing order of close collaboration. The last is what the United States has with its closest allies like Japan, South Korea, and much/most/all of NATO--but that is not the only way in which the term is meaningful.

Transactional cooperation where economic and other core interests happen to coincide; often, arms sales are the key manifestation of this type of alliance. In addition, relatively low-risk and harmless and largely symbolic cooperation on minor military exercises and perhaps on collaboratively training other countries' militaries. All the aforementioned, plus a willingness to share intelligence, to posture forces, and to conduct not just peaceful exercises but provocations against mutual adversaries or competitors. Formal defense pacts centered on mutual-defense pledges that promise more or less unconditional and direct military assistance with combat forces in the event either finds itself at war.

Defined this way, the first two elements of a possible alliance are often relatively benign--and hard to prevent in any case. The real task for American policymakers, therefore, is to conduct U.S. foreign policy in such a way that the China-Russia security relationship remains limited in these domains, without progressing very far into the third.

Unfortunately, there are already examples of where Moscow and Beijing have done considerably more, especially in the western Pacific and eastern Europe. But even in Africa, which western powers often ignore or deprioritize to focus on other issues and regions, Moscow and Beijing seem to be exploring new ways of cooperating far away from the contentious East Asian and European theaters. Last month, Moscow and Beijing jointly conducted a naval drill with South Africa near the Cape of Good Hope, a strategic crossroads where the Atlantic and Indian oceans converge. While the South African military described the drill as a routine “multinational task force to react to and counter security threats at sea,” the message conveyed by China’s and Russia’s growing interest in the continent—particularly months after a similar joint exercise between south Africa, France, and Germany was postponed indefinitely—is clear.

Moreover, while China has already established its first overseas military base in Djibouti in part to protect its interests on the continent, Russia also seeks to be a bigger player, mainly through weapons sales and cooperation agreements on everything from military and police training to nuclear technology. It seems likely that Russia and China will continue to find ways to leverage their combined military and economic clout in Africa. Given that the United States and Europe have real economic and security interests on the continent as well, thinking about ways to counteract or at the very least monitor Russian and Chinese designs there is perhaps one way to address French President Emmanuel Macron’s now-infamous contention that NATO is “brain-dead.”

And while they have both cooperated with Washington in applying economic pressure against Iran as well as North Korea, that could change if the Trump administration continues to take unilateral steps that punish Russian and Chinese economies without first attempting to establish a broader legitimacy. The China-Russia relationship is not a given. It is evolving and it will continue to do so largely as a function of U.S. policy. Washington needs to keep that fact firmly in mind as it makes diplomatic decisions, postures forces, imposes sanctions, and otherwise engages in foreign policy statecraft in the months and years ahead.

About these writer(s): Michael O’Hanlon is a senior fellow in foreign policy and Adam Twardowski is a senior researcher in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
__________________
Boats

O Almighty Lord God, who neither slumberest nor sleepest; Protect and assist, we beseech thee, all those who at home or abroad, by land, by sea, or in the air, are serving this country, that they, being armed with thy defence, may be preserved evermore in all perils; and being filled with wisdom and girded with strength, may do their duty to thy honour and glory; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

"IN GOD WE TRUST"
sendpm.gif Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is On

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 02:05 AM.


Powered by vBulletin, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.