U.S. Military Believes Afghanistan Could Be in Taliban's Complete Control Within 2 Mo

[Boats]

U.S. Military Believes Afghanistan Could Be in Taliban's Complete Control Within 2 Months
By: Julia Marnin - Newsweek News - 08-12-21
Re: https://www.newsweek.com/us-military...8737?piano_t=1

The U.S. military believes Afghanistan could be under the Taliban's complete control within two months, according to the most recent internal analysis, as America's involvement in the country is scheduled to end by August 31, the Associated Press reported.

The analysis of Afghanistan's current situation considered how the Taliban is taking over territories and now controls about two-thirds of the country. A defense official discussed the assessment with AP on Wednesday on condition of anonymity. The assessment also said Kabul could be under pressure by the Taliban in September. The Taliban overran three provincial capitals Wednesday and one on Thursday.

"No potential outcome has to be inevitable, including the fall of Kabul," chief Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters. "It doesn't have to be that way. It really depends on what kind of political and military leadership the Afghans can muster to turn this around."

A day before Kirby's comments, President Joe Biden told reporters that Afghanistan has "got to fight for themselves, fight for their nation."

Afghan government forces are collapsing even faster than U.S. military leaders thought possible just a few months ago when Biden ordered a full withdrawal. But there's little appetite at the White House, the Pentagon or among the American public for trying to stop the rout and it probably is too late to do so.

Biden has made clear he has no intention of reversing the decision he made last spring, even as the outcome seems to point toward a Taliban takeover. With most U.S. troops now gone and the Taliban accelerating their battlefield gains, American military leaders are not pressing him to change his mind. They know that the only significant option would be for the president to restart the war he already decided to end.

The Taliban ruled the country from 1996 until U.S. forces invaded after the 9/11 attacks. The provincial capital overrun Thursday is the 10th the insurgents have taken in a weeklong sweep that has given them effective control of about two-thirds of the country. The insurgents have no air force and are outnumbered by U.S.-trained Afghan defense forces, but they have captured territory with stunning speed.

Kirby said the Afghans still have time to save themselves from final defeat.

The U.S. continues to support the Afghan military with limited airstrikes, but those have not made a strategic difference thus far and are scheduled to end when the U.S. formally ends its role in the war on August 31. Biden could continue airstrikes beyond that date, but given his firm stance on ending the war, that seems unlikely.

"My suspicion, my strong suspicion, is that the 31st of August timeline's going to hold," said Carter Malkasian, who advised U.S. military leaders in Afghanistan and Washington.

Senior U.S. military officials had cautioned Biden that a full U.S. withdrawal could lead to a Taliban takeover, but the president decided in April that continuing the war was a waste. He said Tuesday that his decision holds, even amid talk that the Taliban could soon be within reach of Kabul, threatening the security of U.S. and other foreign diplomats.

Officials said that there has been no decision or order for an evacuation of American diplomatic personnel from Afghanistan. But one official said it is now time for serious conversations about whether the U.S. military should begin to move assets into the region to be ready in case the State Department calls for a sudden evacuation.

Kirby declined to discuss any evacuation planning, but one congressional official said a recent National Security Council meeting had discussed preliminary planning for a potential evacuation of the U.S. Embassy but came to no conclusions.

Any such plan would involve identifying U.S. troops, aircraft and other assets that may have to operate from within Afghanistan or nearby areas. The U.S. already has warships in the region, including the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier and the USS Iwo Jima amphibious ready group with the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard.

Military officials watching the deteriorating situation said that so far the Taliban hasn't taken steps to threaten Kabul. But it isn't clear if the Taliban will wait until it has gained control of the bulk of the country before attempting to seize the capital.

Military commanders have long warned that it would be a significant challenge for the Afghan military to hold off the Taliban through the end of the year. In early May, shortly after Biden announced his withdrawal decision, Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he foresaw "some really dramatic, bad possible outcomes" in a worst-case scenario. He held out hope that the government would unify and hold off the Taliban, and said the outcome could clarify by the end of the summer.

The security of the U.S. diplomatic corps has been talked about for months, even before the Taliban's battlefield blitz. The military has long had various planning options for evacuating personnel from Afghanistan. Those options would largely be determined by the White House and the State Department.

A key component of the options would be whether the U.S. military would have unfettered access to the Kabul international airport, allowing personnel to be flown systematically out of the capital. In a grimmer environment, American forces might have to fight their way in and out if the Taliban have infiltrated the city.

The U.S. also would have to determine who would be evacuated: just American embassy personnel and the U.S. military, or also other embassies, American citizens, and Afghans who worked with the U.S. In that last category are former interpreters and those who face retaliation from the Taliban. The U.S. has already started pulling out hundreds of those Afghans who assisted troops during the war.

Senior defense leaders have been talking and meeting daily, laying out their grim assessments of the security situation in Afghanistan. Officials pointed to the fall of Baghlan Province as a worrisome bellwether, because it provides the Taliban with a base and route to Kabul from the north.

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Personal note:

My conclusions: So much for Afghanistan - the Taliban wanted it more than the Afghanistan's did! - Did they learn nothing from the United States in 20 years?
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They have no heart - self-esteem - or the will power to save their country. This will be very bad for them from now on and the home they once had will no longer be theirs. You can't blame the US for this. Like I said - they had 20+ years to learn from us - how to hold their own. This doesn't sit well with American's and the sacrifice's they made to help them hold their country.
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It's also discouraging to the US military and our government that they fell so quickly - after our many years of being there - and training their men. So; you can't blame us for your demise. We wish you well - but you've got some tough sledding under a new owner.
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Boats

[Boats]

Taliban Continues Sweeping Offensive In Afghanistan
By: Counter Extremism Project: 08-12-21
Re: https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ta...dfbzlDNnMgvCxD

(New York, N.Y.) – This week, the Taliban seized the Afghan provincial capitals of Pul-i-Khumri, Farah, Faizabad, and Ghazni, giving them estimated control of more than two-thirds of the country. The Taliban’s victories bring the total number of major cities captured in the last week to 10 and follow the killing of government senior media officer on Friday in Kabul. According to press reports, U.S. officials believe that Kabul could fall to the Taliban within a year, while some estimate it could happen within 90 days.

President Joe Biden has ordered a full withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan by August 31. On Monday, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby declared it was ultimately up to the Afghans to defend their country from the Taliban and other threats. The United States continues to launch airstrikes from outside of Afghanistan in support of the Afghan military, but Kirby would not confirm whether the United States would continue to provide air support past the August 31 deadline or would limit counterterrorism strikes only to instances when specific plans to attack the U.S. homeland or U.S. allies are discovered.

U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad has warned the Taliban against pursuing a military victory in Afghanistan. He also warned that the international community would not recognize a future Taliban government. The U.S. State Department and Great Britain’s Foreign Office Foreign Office have advised their respective citizens to leave Afghanistan because of the worsening security situation.

To read the Counter Extremism Project’s (CEP) Afghanistan resource, please click the link above and download this entire post whereas on the bottom of the page will be the links you can download to view!

To read CEP’s Taliban resource, please click the main link and scroll down the links are there.