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Old 09-21-2022, 10:18 AM
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Exclamation Putin call up another 300k troops - if you call them troops?

Putin calls up 300k troops; Biden's nuclear warning; USN, Canada sail through Taiwan Strait; Iran protests spread; And a bit more.
By: Ben Watson & Jennifer Hlad - The "D" Brief & Defese One News - 09-21-22

Putin’s big manpower gamble. Russia’s autocratic leader Vladimir Putin has ordered a “partial mobilization” of about 300,000 reserve troops to help fight his flagging invasion of democratic Ukraine, which is now in its seventh month, as Ukraine has begun clawing back land previously occupied by Putin’s ragtag forces in the east and in the south. The new order, which Putin described as “necessary, imperative measures,” allegedly covers only soldiers with “combat experience,” and excludes students and “conscripts,” though exactly how for the latter remains unclear.

Putin still insists Russia is fighting “neo-Nazis” in Ukraine; and he said he expects referendum votes in four occupied territories—set to begin Friday—to proceed without complication. That particular goal, as we highlighted in Tuesday’s newsletter, seems to be one of the dominant motivations for Wednesday’s apparently abrupt mobilization.

Big picture: Vlad the invader appears to be attempting to thread a needle of sorts. That’s because he desperately needs more soldiers for his Ukraine invasion, but he doesn’t want them in such large numbers that it could provoke potential questioning and possible political instability over why exactly his mighty invasion force has apparently stopped advancing over the past several weeks—and indeed is losing ground in occupied Ukraine, particularly around Kharkiv in the northeast.

Putin told his countrymen that Russia is fighting “virtually the entire military machine of the collective West,” according to the text of his speech Wednesday. And, “The goal of that part of the West is to weaken, divide, and ultimately destroy our country,” Putin said.

But he also has his eye on a “line of contact that is over 1,000 kilometers long” in Ukraine, he explained. And he needs these new troops “to defend our motherland and its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to ensure the safety of our people and people in the liberated territories.”

According to Putin’s logic, “Washington, London, and Brussels are openly encouraging Kiev to move the hostilities to our territory,” he claimed Wednesday, against any apparent evidence in the public record. “They openly say that Russia must be defeated on the battlefield by any means, and subsequently deprived of political, economic, cultural, and any other sovereignty and ransacked,” Putin claimed.

Putin also delivered a not-so-veiled nuclear threat, warning in his address, “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us,” he said, and added, “This is not a bluff.” Warned one expert to the Wall Street Journal, “Any decision by Vladimir Putin to use nuclear weapons would be catastrophically stupid…The nuclear threat has been taken seriously from the outset, but you have to combine taking it seriously with not being intimidated by the mere mention of nuclear weapons.”

U.S. reax: “It’s irresponsible rhetoric for a nuclear power to talk that way. But it’s not atypical for how he’s been talking the last seven months and we take it very seriously,” said John Kirby, spokesman for the White House’s National Security Council.

By the way: One-way flights out of Russia began selling out moments after Putin’s comments, Reuters reports, specifically citing sold out Turkish and Armenian destinations. Flights to Dubai, meanwhile, listed at around $5,000 apiece. Other destinations from Moscow are jacking up their prices as well. Dmetri Alperovitch offered some travel advice to Russians pondering an exit, here.

NATO reax: “The speech of President Putin demonstrates that the war is not going according to President Putin's plans,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told Reuters in an interview Wednesday. “He has made a big miscalculation,” Stoltenberg added.

Kyiv’s reax: “We will act according to our plans step by step. I’m sure we will liberate our territory,” President Volodymir Zelenskyy told Germany’s Bild on Wednesday.

BTW: Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy had planned to speak to U.S. defense companies directly today (virtually) at an audience of the National Defense Industrial Association in Austin, Texas. But Zelenskyy has since changed plans, and picked Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov and Deputy Defense Minister Maj. Gen. Volodymyr Havrylov as surrogates instead, according to our colleague Marcus Weisgerber. Follow him on Twitter for the latest, here.

China’s reax: “We call on all the parties involved to reach a cease-fire through dialogue and negotiations, and find a way as quickly as possible to take into account the reasonable security concerns of all sides,” Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told reporters Wednesday in Beijing. “We also hope that the international community will create the conditions and room to bring this about,” he said.

Expert reax: The new forces could potentially be enough “to prevent a collapse of Russian forces” in Ukraine, said Rob Lee. “Otherwise, Russia's manpower issues could have become catastrophic this winter when many short-term volunteers likely would not sign another contract.” However, Lee cautioned, “the war will now increasingly be fought on the Russian side by people who do not want to be there. The difference in morale, unit cohesion, and other critical factors between Ukrainian and Russian units will grow even greater.”

A second opinion: Putin’s order will very likely “extend Russia's ability to sustain this war more so than alter the outcome,” said Michael Kofman of CNA. On the other hand, he continued, “Having used up its best equipment, officers, and personnel” already in the Ukraine invasion, “I don't see how this can be recovered.”

See also: Former U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling called Putin’s order “A new sign of [Russian] weakness,” and he explains in a Twitter thread, here.
Personal note: If he thinks it can be done - why not put on your uniform and get your
ass out there and show them how to do it? He's dead horse - dictating from his round table.
Resurrecting the old timers for service won't be any better. They are out of touch
both healthwise and stomach wise - with the issues; plus they can't move lilke they
did 25 years earlier. Old tactics which will result in the loss of thousand's of Russians.
Their heart may not be in it - nor - do they want to become Putin's statistics.
His demeanor of late is strickly posturing. If he thinks he can do better he'd better
get off his dead ass - and get out their so they have someone they can shot from behind
- or - get in the front and lead your country-men yourself.
He's out of touch and can only threaten nukes before someone in Russia shoots
him thus preventing these issues from continuing!
China or North Korea are watching this closely. They aren't about ready to jump
into this and cause the End of Day's for the world by contaminating their lands
and infrastructure - they aren't that stupid. These so-called allias of his are
worried about being targeted and suffer their people to such an event!
Let's face it this Cold War is alot JAW TALK and the Ukrainein's will not go down
in defeat - at any cost. NATO and the USA will not let them down. This BS from
Putin will be his demise - sooner than later for sure. The Oligard's can already
see this and its hurting them tremedously - they have little backbone and will
not suffer their lifestyles in behalf of Putin. (It won't be much longer and Putin
will be no more). The next guy had better have this shit together as he too
will not last long at the reins!

O Almighty Lord God, who neither slumberest nor sleepest; Protect and assist, we beseech thee, all those who at home or abroad, by land, by sea, or in the air, are serving this country, that they, being armed with thy defence, may be preserved evermore in all perils; and being filled with wisdom and girded with strength, may do their duty to thy honour and glory; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

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