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Old 10-15-2020, 12:30 PM
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Arrow How Vladimir Putin is playing Trump on nuclear arms control

How Vladimir Putin is playing Trump on nuclear arms control
By: Tom Rogan - Washington Examiner News - 10-15-20
Re: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...r-arms-control

Vladimir Putin is playing President Trump in ongoing United States-Russia nuclear arms talks. While Trump deserves credit for trying to reach a new arms control agreement, he must recognize the nature of the negotiating party he is dealing with.

The talks are centered on extending the New START nuclear arms treaty, which is due to expire. Limiting strategic launches and deployed nuclear warheads, an extension would mitigate the risk of an existentially destructive nuclear conflict. It would also serve as a stepping stone toward eventual nuclear disarmament. Its pursuit is a noble endeavor.

But only with caution. The art of this deal won't be achieved with optimism and the presumption of mutual benefit.

Evincing as much, the Russians are now openly shredding optimistic comments from Trump's top negotiator. Speaking on Tuesday, State Department official Marshall Billingslea said that he believed a "gentleman's agreement, that arrangement, I feel has been reached." Billingslea added that the agreement "will ultimately need to percolate down through [the Russian] system so that my counterpart, hopefully, will be authorized to negotiate."

This saw Billingslea's counterpart, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, react with thinly veiled disdain.

He asserted that "If the Americans need to report to their superiors something about which they allegedly agreed with the Russian Federation before their elections, then they will not get it." Ryabkov continued, "The US position in favor of freezing [total nuclear warhead arsenals] has long been known to us. It is unacceptable to us. Not because we are against freezing, but because we need to deal with the problems of strategic stability as a whole."

What we see here is the Russians playing their favorite game of taking U.S. officials round the merry-go-round. This is not to cast overdue blame on Billingslea. It is highly likely that Ryabkov gave the American negotiator reason for his optimism in their most recent meeting. But Ryabkov's words would not have been a sincere effort at negotiating. Rather, they would have reflected an attempt to see how much compromise the Trump administration will make for a New START extension. The overriding complication is that the Russians are clearly waiting to see what happens in November's U.S. presidential election. Putin is not going to expend political capital and risk making himself look weak at home by offering concessions that a President Biden could claim as his own successes. This takes on added importance in that a Biden presidency will be more hostile toward Putin, at least in rhetorical terms.

This is not to say that Trump's pursuit of a new nuclear arms control is misguided.

The destructive capacity of these weapons is rationale alone to limit their deployed number. At a basic level, the Russians share that sentiment of concern. But if he's reelected, Trump will have to play hardball with the Russians if he's to get a viable treaty extension. That means continuing to counter Russia's tactical nuclear warhead strategy, demanding much more intensive inspections protocols on strategic weapons platforms, and ensuring that hypersonic vehicles form part of the negotiating portfolio. It also means ensuring continued U.S. strike-supremacy — the cornerstone of effective deterrence in an era of rising Russian and Chinese strategic threat.

If Trump is serious about getting the art of the deal here, he's likely to be able to do so and win (or at least deserve) a Nobel Peace Prize. But he needs to recognize Putin's agenda. The Russians are the masters of hardball and love to play those who throw softballs.
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