Growth of Extremist Groups Follows Mathematical Pattern: Study

[Boats]

Growth of Extremist Groups Follows Mathematical Pattern: Study
By: Patrick Tucker - Defense One Technology Editor - 05-26-21
Re: https://www.defenseone.com/technolog...-shows/174304/

Status to date: The diversity of an online group provides clues to how quickly it will grow.

Two distinct extremist groups, ISIS and the Boogaloo movement, would seem at first glance to share little in common other than a willingness to commit violence. Yet these groups emerge and grow online following a similar mathematical pattern, according to a new paper from researchers at George Washington University.

The paper proposes a “shockwave equation” that can be applied to a wide number of online groups to predict the point at which they experience sudden growth. The groups include ISIS, which comprises Islamic jihadists, and the Boogaloo movement, a loose collective of right-wing extremists advocating for a new civil war.

“You might think that because of their very different ideologies etc., and the fact that ISIS support was very focused while Boogaloos are diverse, the two movements, ISIS and Boogaloos, would behave very differently. But what we found is that, in fact, they follow the same mathematical blueprint in terms of their growth patterns,” Neil Johnson, a physics professor at George Washington University, told Defense One.

Many extremist groups have benefited from the presence of a specific, charismatic leader. But Johnson and his colleagues' research shows that growth depends even more on the interpersonal online dynamics of the core members and how they interact with new recruits, a factor he refers to as “collective chemistry.”

To measure the collective chemistry of the groups, the researchers looked at data from ISIS recruitment from the Russian website VKontakte during the group’s key growth phase in 2014 and 2015. They collected Facebook data from the Boogaloo group during 2020.

One of the key qualities of both groups’ collective chemistry is the willingness of new group members to contribute their own content and respond to one another, as opposed to passively consuming content from one leader. In the case of Boogaloo groups, this resulted in an “eclectic mix of memes and ideas.” That, in part, gives the group an authentic, bottom-up feeling, a key factor in propelling it to explosive growth.

“Collective chemistry” is a way to understand how different group members interact and if those interactions are complimentary, like a bag of Lego toys, Johnson said. “Someone in the Boogaloos may be far-right and want to break up federal and state power toward tribes (Aryan tribes). Someone else may be completely off the spectrum, neither right nor left. Each is therefore like a piece of Lego with their own characteristics,” he said.

Having lots of different Lego types that work together lets you know what you can build. The same works for the members of online groups. The researchers measured “the heterogeneity of each bag, based on the postings and comments that it contains, like peering into a bag of Lego. So without having to know everything about each individual piece, we can characterize the heterogeneity of each group,” Johnson said.

Collective chemistry also plays a role in how quickly the group can react to efforts to shut it down.

“Online extremist groups can show remarkably quick growth and adaptation, particularly those focused around fresh narratives...and react quickly when they realize their content is being moderated,” Johnson and his colleagues write.

The analysis could be useful for social networking sites looking to curb online hate groups before they become too big, as well as for law enforcement or intelligence professionals looking to spot such groups when they first emerge. The “typical agency/law enforcement attempts to find the bad actor/apple etc. around which the movement forms, are misguided. Just like there is typically no single ‘bad driver’ that causes a traffic jam. Instead, it is a collective phenomenon. This explains why, when looking for the ‘leader' in these types of extremism uprisings, there never seems to be one,” Johnson said.

Social media companies in particular could play a proactive role in limiting the size of these groups early, and not just by shutting them down.

“While sweeping shutdowns of online groups are sometimes called for, this tactic has the disadvantage of being highly visible (and thus sometimes provoking and energizing extremists), and also can be circumvented when individuals move to unmoderated platforms,” they wrote.

Rather, they propose that social media companies “nudge” behavior in the groups in the way they select what content to show potential group members and the way they use algorithms to suggest groups to users on the basis of groups already joined.

“One example is by injecting extremists’ online spaces (e.g., Facebook page) with topically diverse material, such as by posting ads and banners that present content about which members of the group are likely to disagree,” they wrote.

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Note: Another good link to read by this writer (see below_

Russia Is Accelerating Its Own Link-Everything Network
Also by Defense One News posted 05-2021
Re: https://www.defenseone.com/technolog...etwork/174242/

The U.S. sees networked warfare and AI as a game-changer. But what happens when your opponent copies your move?

The United States isn’t the only major military power trying to digitally link all of its weapons and execute operations faster with artificial intelligence. Russia has been making gains in its own version of centralized command and control across land, sea, space, and cyberspace, according to a new paper from a Navy-linked think tank.

Over the past several years, Russian military leaders have steadily advanced an AI-linked concept called automated control systems, or ACS, says the paper, to be published Monday by the Center for Naval Analyses, or CNA. The Russian military’s encyclopedia describes it as: “A system that automates such processes or functions of command and control of troops and (or) weapons (combat assets) such as: collection, processing, storage and delivery of information necessary to optimize command and control of troops and weapons.”

The concept bears an uncanny resemblance to the U.S. military’s own vision for AI-fueled, network-centric operations.

In 2017, U.S. service chiefs began speaking about digitally linking planes, ships, drones, satellites and troops in a comprehensive data web. The idea was to allow any “shooter” on the battlefield to hit any target. If an F-35 Joint Strike Fighter crashed on the way to bomb a radar station, another weapon — a long-range artillery cannon, a drone, a ship-launched cruise missile — would take the shot without commanders having to figure out the next best option. Artificial intelligence would play a key role, analyzing rapidly incoming data streams about targets and the state of U.S. forces and then determining best courses of action for commanders to execute.

The Russian military began testing ACS concepts in 2019, even simulating a (presumably NATO-led) attack on the Crimean Peninsula. Russian forces combined an S-400 anti-aircraft radar and battery with a Pantsir-S missile system to shoot down dozens of enemy cruise missiles, at least in state media accounts.

Like JADC2, ACS would use AI to find targets and build strike plans. Unlike JADC2, ACS might leave humans out of the loop. “The [Ministry of Defense] thinks that in the future, this system will be equipped with AI in order to independently detect potential targets and distribute missile strikes without human intervention,” the CNA paper said.

Work on ACS has been accelerating in recent years, “certainly from the Russian involvement in Syria,” said Samuel Bendett, a CNA adviser who is an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

In March, Russian defense contractor Sozvezdie showed off new control system software that “enables artillery and rocket forces to work in an integrated information environment,” the paper said.

Jeffrey Edmonds, a CNA research scientist, said, “Russia has been placing a large effort on linking its force from individual soldiers through the operational to the strategic level to improve battlefield awareness and [communications]... I think the biggest improvements here — what they also refer to as ‘net-centric warfare’— is at the tactical level and operational level.”

But Russia is also seeking to use AI to better understand complex geopolitical threats to the Kremlin. Russia’s National Defense Management Center, “which is the key military [communications] node in a crisis or conflict, and houses the Russian military’s supercomputing power employed for real time and forward-looking analysis of the military-political situation—could employ AI-enabled technologies to assist with information collection and analysis as a decision aid,” the paper said.

Perhaps most troubling, the paper suggests that Russia may try to integrate artificial intelligence into nuclear command and control in order to convince the United States that a first strike, which might take out Russian leadership, wouldn’t destroy the country’s ability to fire nuclear weapons.

“The Russian military sees the integration of autonomy and AI elements as key to buttressing the credibility of its nuclear deterrent to the United States, maintaining the force, improving its early warning ability, maintaining a reliable second-strike capability, and defeating adversary (US) missile defense systems,” the paper said.

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Personal note: It shows we are aware of the issues at hand - but it doesn't ensure that we have a handle on its finality. Their are lot's of cooks in the kitchen - adding ingredient's that have yet to be analyzed - nor do we have a handle on the resolve needed - to offset the pot from boiling over. The issues today are very complex and keep coming in which leaves little doubt that they will continue for some time. Defaulting the game plans in process often times leaves open conjectures - as to the repercussion's of making the wrong move?
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Boats