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Old 01-22-2019, 08:16 AM
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Arrow Attacks in Syria and Afghanistan show neither war is close to over

Attacks in Syria and Afghanistan show neither war is close to over
by Jamie McIntyre | January 22, 2019 06:59 AM
RE: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/a...-close-to-over

TALIBAN ATTACKS, TALKS: Just hours before the Taliban announced a resumption of peace talks with the U.S., the group attacked an Afghan intelligence base. Yesterday’s attack killed at least 45 people and wounded as many as 70, most of them military personnel, according to provincial officials, quoted by the AP.

A suicide bomber committed the brazen assault by driving an explosives-laden Humvee into the intelligence base’s main building, causing the complex to collapse. That assault apparently resulted in the heavy casualties, making it one of the deadliest attacks against the home country’s intelligence service of the 17-year-plus war.

The Taliban promptly claimed responsibility. Then, in a separate statement, said they had met again yesterday with U.S. representatives in Qatar, to discuss “ending the invasion of Afghanistan.”

The AP reported, “The Taliban, who now hold sway in almost half of Afghanistan, carry out attacks on a daily basis, mainly targeting the country’s beleaguered security forces.”

The attack “was another indication of the violence stretching the Afghan government’s defenses, even as the United States may be preparing to withdraw some of its troops,” The New York Times said in its dispatch from Kabul. “It was a sign, analysts said, of how violence is likely to grow deadlier even as the sides of the long war have indicated a willingness to seek a negotiated settlement.”

ISIS CLAIMS DISPUTED: Meanwhile, in Syria, a suicide car bomb attack killed five members of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. The group was on patrol with American troops in northeastern Syria.

ISIS claimed responsibility, saying in a statement the attack killed and wounded more than 13 people. That included what it called "elements from the Crusader American forces,” according to the Middle East Media Research Institute, a group that monitors ISIS. The statement threatened more attacks, saying the Monday bombing, and the Jan. 16 attacks in Manbij, which killed four Americans, were only the "first rain.”

“We can confirm a combined U.S. and Syrian partner force convoy was involved in an apparent VBIED attack today in Syria. There were no U.S. casualties,” said a brief statement from Operation Inherent Resolve, on the coalition’s official Twitter account.

TRUMP, ERDOGAN TALK: President Trump had another phone conversation about Syria with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan over the weekend, and according to Turkish media, Erdogan assured Trump that Turkey troops are ready to take over security in Manbij and pledged to work toward implementing a “safe zone” in the northern part of the country.

The White House provided few details about the call. “President Trump underscored the importance of defeating terrorist elements that remain in Syria,” said White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders. “The two leaders agreed to continue to pursue a negotiated solution for northeast Syria that achieves our respective security concerns. They also discussed their mutual interest in expanding the trade relationship between the United States and Turkey.”

NO REAL PLAN: Brett McGurk, the former special presidential envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS is speaking out. “Announcing you're going to withdraw and without a plan — and, believe me, there's no plan for what's coming next. Right now we do not have a plan. It increases the vulnerability of our force,” McGurk said on CBS Sunday. “It is increasing the risk to our people on the ground in Syria and it will open up space for ISIS.”

McGurk, who resigned in protest last month after being blindsided by President Trump’s decision to declare victory and withdraw from Syria, is deeply skeptical of Erdogan’s promises.

“But what's most important is, we can't expect a partner such as Turkey to come in and take our place, or another coalition partner to take our place. That is not realistic. And if our forces are under orders to withdraw, as at the same time they are trying to find some formula for another coalition partner to come in, that is not workable, that is not a viable plan.”

In a Washington Post op-ed Saturday, McGurk said Trump “bought” Erdogan's dubious plan for Syria in a “snap decision” during their phone call last month. Erdogan, McGurk argues, is making promises he’s not capable of keeping.

“In fact, Turkey can’t operate hundreds of miles from its border in hostile territory without substantial U.S. military support. And many of the Syrian opposition groups backed by Turkey include extremists who have openly declared their intent to fight the Kurds, not the Islamic State,” McGurk wrote.

Likewise, McGurk says Trump’s calls for Turkey to establish a 20-mile safe zone “seems to have been made with no process or analysis.”

“This area would encompass all Kurdish areas of eastern Syria. There is no force ready to take over, nor time to build one, as American troops prepare to leave. And entry of Turkish-backed opposition forces would likely displace thousands of Kurds, as well as threaten vulnerable Christian communities interspersed in these areas.”

PUTIN, ERDOGAN TO TALK: Tomorrow, Erdogan travels to Moscow to discuss the future of Syria with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who also has eyes on filling the vacuum left by departing U.S. forces.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Mark (@DavidMarkDC). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY: SHUTDOWN DAY 32: The longest (partial) government shutdown in U.S. history is now well into its second month, with no resolution in sight. The latest former military leader to lament the breakdown of normal government is retired Gen. Martin Dempsey.

“Yesterday [the Coast Guard] Cutter Bertholf and crew of 170 deployed for months leaving their families without pay. A harsh and avoidable burden on them. Someone may eventually declare victory in the shutdown. It will be a pyrrhic victory. Responsible leaders acknowledge limits,” tweeted Dempsey, a former Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman.

LEGISLATIVE CHICKEN: Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell is moving forward with a vote today on a measure to end the impasse. But the Kentucky Republican’s measure includes Trump's demand for $5.7 billion up-front to build more barriers on the southern border, which Democrats continue to insist they won’t discuss until after the government reopens.

DEAL: That approach is a non-starter for the Trump administration. “What we heard again and again is we will not negotiate until the president reopens the government. Well, this bill would reopen the government,” said Vice President Mike Pence on Fox News Sunday.

“What the president offered was a good-faith compromise to address what is a genuine humanitarian and security crisis on our southern border and end the government shutdown,” Pence said.

Pence argued the Senate bill could be a vehicle for compromise.

“You know the legislative process traditionally is Republicans would offer their solutions, Democrats would offer amendments,” he said. ”But the president said, ‘Look, we want — we want to put it all on the table. In a very real sense, what President Trump did here was he set the table for a deal that will address the crisis on our border, secure our border and give us a pathway to reopen the government.”

NO DEAL: The Democrats says they won’t negotiate with a gun to their heads and contend Trump’s offer for temporary protection for DACA recipients, in return for a permanent border wall, is an insult. “It was effectively saying, ‘Look, I created a problem by taking away protections for dreamers. I created another problem by taking away protections for refugees. I'm willing to undo part of the damage temporarily that I have inflicted to get my wall,’” said Rep. Adam Schiff on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

“Well, that's really not much of an offer,” added the California Democrat. “And it wasn't intended to be. At the end of the day, what the president wants is to replace one fraudulent promise with another, the promise that Mexico was going to pay, with a promise that taxpayers are now going to pay, but somehow get reimbursed through his new NAFTA. Well, that's as fraudulent as the original promise.”

SECOND KOREA SUMMIT ON TRACK: Standing on the White House South Lawn Saturday, President Trump announced he will meet again with South Korean Leader Kim Jong Un. The announcement of a second summit came after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Friday with chief North Korean negotiator Kim Yong Chol. A statement said the two sides “held a productive first meeting at the working level.”

“That was an incredible meeting. It lasted almost two hours,” Trump said. “And we’ve agreed to meet sometime, probably at the end of February. We’ve picked the country, but we’ll be announcing it in the future.”

Trump added that “Kim Jong Un is looking very forward to it and so am I. We’ve made a lot of progress that has not been reported by the media, but we have made a lot of progress as far as denuclearization is concerned. And we’re talking about a lot of different things. But we’ve made tremendous progress that has not been reported, unfortunately. But it will be. Things are going very well with North Korea.”

Sources told Bloomberg that Vietnam is the likely location for the late-February summit.

SECRET NORTH KOREAN MISSILE BASE: Researchers have identified a covert North Korean ballistic missile base that has not been disclosed previously by the Kim Jong Un regime, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The Sino-ri Missile Operating Base is just one of up to 20 missile sites that the rogue regime has concealed, according to a report from Beyond Parallel, a project sponsored by CSIS.

The site is reportedly the headquarters for the Korean People’s Army Strategic Rocket Forces missile brigade and allegedly has played a critical role in developing ballistic missiles that can reach Guam.

SEN. POMPEO? The planned retirement of Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts has reportedly got Pompeo thinking about a possible run for the Senate from his home state. Multiple reports say the former congressman and CIA director, who has been secretary of state since last April, is considering the move but has made no final decision. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is said to be among the people urging him to run, in what would be a safe seat in a Republican state.

DAVOS LOSES SOME LUSTER: The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos gets underway in Davos, Switzerland, without the usual U.S. delegation, which was grounded by President Trump in a show of evenhandedness after he canceled House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned congressional delegation visit to Afghanistan over the weekend.

Trump says all hands should be on deck negotiating an end to the shutdown and funding for the border wall. “Democrats are kidding themselves (they don’t really believe it!) if they say you can stop Crime, Drugs, Human Trafficking and Caravans without a Wall or Steel Barrier. Stop playing games and give America the Security it deserves. A Humanitarian Crisis!” Trump said in his latest tweet on the subject.

“Just about to start the #WEF19 in Davos. This year the US, U.K. and French governments have dropped out. As a result, the ratio of dictatorships to democracies in Davos is now seriously skewed towards the bad guys,” tweeted Bill Browder, the prominent Putin critic, whose lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, died in prison after uncovering a $230 million fraud committed by Russian government officials.

CANCELING CODELS IS ‘UNDEMOCRATIC’: Trump’s decision to pull Pelosi’s military plane for the Afghanistan trip isn’t sitting well with Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash, the new chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.

“President Trump’s attempt to deny members of Congress the ability to conduct oversight of military issues by refusing to support official travel is dangerous, and it is undemocratic,” Smith said in a statement Friday. “The people’s elected representatives must be able to gather information on the ground about military conditions, especially the safety and security of our servicemembers, amid a complex threat environment.”

WE’LL SHOW YOU OURS, IF YOU SHOW US YOURS: Russia is offering to let the U.S. inspect its land-based cruise missile that two administrations in a row have said violates the 1987 INF treaty.

"We are ready to show unprecedented transparency on the 9M729 missile, which alarms the Americans so much. We offered them a presentation and a briefing on the missile, which absolutely does not follow from the content of the treaty itself,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said yesterday in an interview with the magazine International Affairs.

“But at the same time, we insist that the Americans take practical steps to alleviate our concerns on the Aegis Ashore systems, deployed in Romania, whose deployment is also scheduled in Poland soon,” Ryabkov said according to a posting on the Russian Embassy to Washington Facebook page.

The posting also noted that Russia "does not recognize the United States' unilateral decision to suspend the operation of the INF Treaty,” and considers the planned action by President Trump to be “legally invalid.”

FIRST AFGHANISTAN CASUALTY OF 2019 IDENTIFIED: The Pentagon identified the first U.S. combat casualty from Afghanistan in 2019 as 26-year-old Sgt. Cameron Meddock, an Army soldier who died from wounds sustained in a firefight while in Afghanistan.

Meddock, from Spearman, Texas, was assigned to the 2nd Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington. He was in Afghanistan supporting Operation Freedom's Sentinel, which is part of the NATO-led Resolute Support Mission.

Meddock was first wounded last Sunday in Jawand District, Badghis Province, Afghanistan, by small arms fire during combat operations. He died Thursday in Landstuhl, Germany.

KEEPING THE PRESSURE ON AL-SHABAAB: A U.S. airstrike killed an estimated 52 members of the militant Islamic terrorist group al Shabab in Jilib, Somalia, on Saturday, U.S. Africa Command reported.

Al Shabab, an organization linked to al Qaeda, claimed responsibility for an attack on a Nairobi hotel in Kenya Wednesday that left 14 dead, as well as seven attackers.

A tabulation by the Washington Examiner shows that today's strike brings the total number of U.S. airstrikes this year to six, and the total number of suspected militants killed to 78. In 2018, the U.S. claimed to have killed 323 al-Shabaab militants in 41 airstrikes over the entire year.

Most, but not all of the strikes are carried out by drones.

THE RUNDOWN

Washington Post: Iraqi scientist says he helped ISIS make chemical weapons

Reuters: U.S. man Russia accuses of spying was misled, says lawyer

Wall Street Journal: Russia’s Mideast Ambitions: Moscow Looks For Stronger Ties With Traditional Allies Of The U.S.

Washington Examiner: Pentagon warns Congress that climate change is a 'national security' risk to military bases

Military Times: New House Armed Services committee sees an influx of veterans, women

AP: US peace envoy: Washington wants to see peace in Afghanistan

Breaking Defense: No, The Pentagon Did Not Waste $28 Billion

AP: Audit: Naval Academy is falling apart

Fox News: US, Britain Conduct Joint Navy Drills In South China Sea Amid Worries About China's Military Power

AP: CNO urges China to avoid confrontations, refuses to back down on Taiwan Strait

Talk Media News: Pentagon first won’t say if ISIS remains a threat, then changes its mind

Defense News: US Air Force’s plan to launch light-attack aircraft competition is now deferred indefinitely

Army Times: Army's long-awaited Iraq war study finds Iran was the only winner in a conflict that holds many lessons for future wars

CNN: Uncertainty remains over future of Syria safe zones

CNN: 4 Americans killed in Syria had skills needed for highly-sensitive intelligence gathering, officials say
__________________
Boats

O Almighty Lord God, who neither slumberest nor sleepest; Protect and assist, we beseech thee, all those who at home or abroad, by land, by sea, or in the air, are serving this country, that they, being armed with thy defence, may be preserved evermore in all perils; and being filled with wisdom and girded with strength, may do their duty to thy honour and glory; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

"IN GOD WE TRUST"
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