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Old 03-09-2019, 08:00 AM
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Exclamation If World War III erupts, how long would it take to wipe out 25% of the human race?

If World War III erupts, how long would it take to wipe out 25% of the human race?
RE: https://www.quora.com/If-World-War-3...the-human-race

As of 3-10-18 - Well lets look at the numbers.

Currently the World was 8 Nuclear Armed Nations. (Maybe 9)

Russia: 7000 Warheads.

Not all of these are ready, many are in storage.
A note worthy number of these are in less then ideal up keep. Even the Russians figure that some will simply not work when they try to use them.

The USA: 6800 Warheads.

Again not all of these are ready for use.

The US Currently has a larger portion of there weapons in air use mode. I.E.: Ready for use by stealth aircraft. And Air Craft Firing Cruiser Missiles.

The US Currently has more of its nuclear arsenal in Submarines then the Russians.

France: 300 Warheads.

Almost all of Frances Warheads are Submarines Launched or Air Dropped. (Mostly on Cruiser Missiles)

China: 260 Warheads.

Almost all of China’s weapons are actually in storage.

UK: 215 Warheads.

Almost all of the U.K.’S Warheads are Submarine Launched.

Pakistan: 130 Warheads.

Most of these are short range or air dropped.
A lot are in storage.

India: 120 Warheads.

Most of these are short range of air dropped.
A lot are in storage.

Israel:80 Warheads.

We don’t actually KNOW that Israel has nukes… We just REALLY REALLY Suspect that it does.

North Korea: < 15 Warheads.

Yes only a few… And a lot of them are among the weakest nuclear warheads ever made. Most can’t be put on a missile….
Pair that with population. (All are approximate)

Russia: 144 Million. (Russia is big, but its population is also very concentrated)

USA: 323 Million. (Again pretty tightly packed into a few small areas. But actually less concentrated then Russians)

China: 1.379 Billion people. (While there are still a lot of people in the county side, fewer warheads are going to kill more people here, there are just more people in total)

India: 1.324 Billion People. (Actually more evenly distributed then China) India is a much smaller nation in lang area. Any warhead is going to cause massive damage.

France: 66 Million. Actually pretty widely distributed in the nation.

UK 65 Million. Pretty spread out if you discount London.

Pakistan: 193 Million.

Israel: 8 Million.

North Korea: 25 Million.

Other “Target Nations”

Germany: 82 Million. (Simply put, Russian can’t afford to not hit Germany in a Nuclear war, there to strong a force to leave undamaged)

South Korea: 51 Million. (Yes Twice the Population of North Korea, Simply put even with nukes and flattening the South Korean Capital, North Korea Stands little chance in a real ware)

Japan: 127 Million. (Ya… Japan has a population pretty closer to Russia, And While they don’t have Nukes, the world is well aware they can make then in a matter of months)

Any nation around Israel that makes a move to try something…..

They might actually Nuke Iran just for good measure even if there not messed with a Nuclear war.

MAYBE

-Panama- 1 Nuke right on the Canal.

-Egypt- 1 Nuke right on the Canal.

-the Persian gulf entrance.-

Targeting.

Russia.

- Most of the Russian Warheads are going to be fired at the USA. With a healthy selection fired at the UK, France, Germany and maybe a few smaller nations in Europe like Ukraine,

- Poland and Sweden.

- Russia will most likely throw a few Nukes at Japan.

- Russia is the most likely nation on the list to fire a couple nukes at Israel (A major US Ally in the middle east)

- Russia may throw a health number of missiles at India and China. (More China then India)

- Unlike what most people think, these two nations don’t really get along that much. And China would absolutely take large parts of China if they where not damage in a war. (Actually they most likely would take large portions even if they were damaged in a war.
They may fire “Punishment missile” at US Allies like Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Philippines.

USA.

A Good deal of the US Warheads are going strait to Russia. A smaller selection to China. This is why Russia has it so bad, because there the biggest target for most of the world.
Its very likely the US/Russia will fire about the same number of missiles at each other. (Or try to) With the rest of the US’s going to China, and the rest of Russia's being spread out.

France.

They're all going to Russia… All of them.
They're almost all going to make it to Russia also.
Most are going to be aimed at Boarder Regions and Port’s, to make it harder for Russia to push into Europe.

China.

A good deal of China's weapons are being fired at the US West coast, to make it very hard for the US to operate in the Pacific.
A few are going to Japan.
A healthy selection are going to India.

China is going to keep a health number of warheads back to fire at anyone who messes with them after the first exchange. (Maybe Russia or South Korea or the Philippines or Indonesia)
UK.

Same thing as France, all are going to Russia. Ports and Border areas.

Pakistan.

Almost all are going to India to stop them from Invading Pakistan.. It wont work.

India.

A healthy number are going to Pakistan. With left back or used right away on China. Making it hard for China to Invade India.

Israel.

Again.. Unless some one fires at them. They most likely wont use them right away.
If someone (Russia) does fire at them. Most of there weapons are going to Russian Allies and a few to Russia itself. Expect a lot to go to Iran. And maybe one to Syria.
A few will be saved or flung at nations that are maybe not Russian Allies but that Israel just expects to invade them in a war.

North Korea.

Again don’t expect them to use them. If they use them… they're doomed.
If they do, most will actually be used on South Korea. With a few thrown at US Bases in the region. A few at Japan. And MAYBE one or two at the USA itself.

So all that being said. Some are not going to be fires.

Some will be knocked out before launch.

Some will not be launched even if they are ordered to. This is a well known effect and has been planed for. In the cold war the Russians and Americans both expected about about 1 out of 5 missiles that are lang based would not be fire because the crews simply would not do it. Figuring “the world was going to end anyways what does it matter.”

Some are not going to fire because of failures. This is more of a Russian Issue then anyone else. A large nuclear arsenal with out paying for upkeep as much as you should will do that.

A lot of people actually don’t believe that a lot of nuclear subs can fire there whole payload without starting to really fall apart.

Some will be shot down….

Some will be blow up. Using Nuclear Missiles to shoot down Nuclear missiles is actually a well establish ideal… And yes the USA most likely has missiles ready for this right now.
(The Russians might also)

So all that being said.

Let’s Assume that most cities in a few nations that have say… 100,000 to 250,000 or great populations will be targeted and hit. Most military bases will be targeted and hit. And smaller towns with major industries will be targeted and hit. Some open areas like oil fields also.

Despite what many people think, large empty areas like flat crop lands wont really be targeted, Plants actually handle radiation pretty well..

Let’s also say that on average 2/3 of the population of those areas will die. (Which is pretty in keeping with what experts think)

That means that out of those major nations.

- Russian Losses: 67.9 Million.

- USA Losses: 167.64 Million.

- UK Losses: 36 Million.

- French Losses: 33 Million.

- German Losses: 35 Million.

This is a little lower then 2/3 but that’s because Germany’s Population is more spread out in mid and small cities then in a lot of other places. Also because of the topography of the nation.

- Chinese Losses: 400 Million.

- China like India will face a huge food issue after a Nuclear war….

- Indian Losses: 105 Million.

Again fewer missiles with be thrown at India then other places.

But it should be note that the inability to transport food and grow food, will effect India much worse then other nations. Hundreds of millions might starve in the aftermath.

- Pakistani Losses: 24.24 Million.

- Israel Losses: 6.3 Million.

This is actually calculated at 90% but that’s because IF Israel is nuked, its such a small area and flat enough that a hand full of mid sized nukes will kill almost everyone.

- North Korean Losses: 3 Million.

That’s literally a little more then the population of the capital. If any one bothers nuking NK it will be in a attempt to knock out its ability to fire nukes at people.

- Japanese Losses: 20 Million.

Again this is just a few nukes at the largest populated areas. Enough to make them unable to wage war for a long time.

- South Korean Losses: 10 Million.

Again a few nukes to make them unable to do much more then mop up North Korea.

- Others: Let’s say another 100 million from “Punishment Missiles” And nuclear fallout drift.

So in the actually exchange?

I would say that 1 billion people or so are going to die in the Exchange and in the 2–3 months after that.

- The 1 billion figure is what I will call a minimum number. I would say 2 billion MAYBE 2.5 at a max. But I say something between 1 and 2 billion.

- 1.77 billion IS 25% of the human population. So that would actually do it pretty well.
So…

Answer to the question: About a day… It would take about a day to kill 1/4th the Earth Population.

Things that are not going to happen.

#1: Nuclear winter is not a real thing. Even at the height of the Cold war the amount of dust that would be thrown up would effect sunlight levels about around 2–3%… That’s nothing. it would drop world temperature by about… 1 Degree.. Celsius. Half of what Global warming as raised it by.

#2: Humans would be fine. Humans population would likely be back at pre-war levels in a hundred years or so. Maybe less maybe more…

Maybe never. Maybe world population would never reach 7 billion again. But it would not a hand full of people left.

#3: It would never be a fallout or mad max style world. Maybe in a few areas. But no where near as long as in those world.

- The really deadly radiation doesn’t last that long.

- 25% is gone is two weeks.
- 50% is gone in 3–6 months.

- Almost all of it is gone even from ground zero in a few years.

- The left over radiation is still not GOOD for you.

- It will still cause higher rates of Cancer and Birth Defects. But really no where near the level needed to actually make Human populations unable to reproduce before they die.

- It will shave a few years off the average life span on average.

#4: Human society and Technology.. Will only be set back a decade or so.

- The only thing things that will be lost are things that are not already out and in public / government use. Because no one will care about copy write law after that.

Some nations wont even really notice…. You will notice I didn’t name one South American or African nation on the list of targets. With the exception of maybe the Panama canal and Egypt.

Australia and New Zealand might escape unharmed.

Some nations… Will Benefit from the War….

- Nations like Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, Mexico They will become the new world powers…

- A great number of highly skilled people will leave affected nations and go to unaffected ones.
__________________
Boats

O Almighty Lord God, who neither slumberest nor sleepest; Protect and assist, we beseech thee, all those who at home or abroad, by land, by sea, or in the air, are serving this country, that they, being armed with thy defence, may be preserved evermore in all perils; and being filled with wisdom and girded with strength, may do their duty to thy honour and glory; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

"IN GOD WE TRUST"
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