The Philippines' decision to keep a key US military pact hints at a shift in its Sout

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The Philippines' decision to keep a key US military pact hints at a shift in its South China Sea calculations
By: Maria Siow - South China Morning Star & Business Insider - 06-08-20
Re: https://www.businessinsider.com/phil...s-shift-2020-6

* The Philippines' decision to maintain the Visiting Forces Agreement with the US comes as Beijing's increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea fuels anxiety in the region and as
Manila grapples with the coronavirus crisis.

* Experts say the decision would likely be viewed with relief by other claimants and could offer the US a chance to reset its strategic ties with the Philippines.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's decision last week to retain, for now, a long-standing military pact with the United States reflects Manila's shifting geopolitical calculations as Beijing's assertiveness in the disputed South China Sea fuels anxieties in the region, analysts say.

The experts add that economic woes also factored into the move to keep the two-decade-old Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) — which is central to the Philippines-US military alliance — as the Philippines grapples with the financial fallout from lockdowns to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

Manila's announcement in February that it would begin the process of suspending the VFA in 180 days was seen as a move to downgrade its traditional alliance with the US, although Manila officially said it was so the country could develop its own defence capabilities and alliances.

Since coming to power in 2016, Duterte has publicly expressed his intention to distance himself from the US in favour of embracing closer ties with China and its big-ticket infrastructure investments.

Richard Javad Heydarian, a Manila-based scholar, columnist and author, said Duterte's change of heart now was not completely surprising, given China's recent moves in the resource-rich waterway through which about 30% of world trade flows.

Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea — which is disputed by Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan — and has reclaimed land and built infrastructure and military installations in several areas in the last decade.

More recently, it has advanced anti-submarine warfare and reconnaissance aircraft to the Spratly Islands chain, and created two new administrative districts covering the South China Sea headquartered in the Paracel Islands. It is also reportedly moving ahead with plans to establish an Air Defence Identification Zone.

A series of provocative incidents between Chinese and Southeast Asian vessels in the contested waters has also fuelled a flurry of diplomatic notes by Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia to the United Nations against Beijing's South China Sea claims.

The incidents included a Chinese warship reportedly pointing a laser gun at a Philippine frigate in February; the alleged ramming and sinking of a Vietnamese vessel by a Chinese ship in April; and intimidation by Chinese vessels as Vietnam and Malaysia carried out oil and gas exploration activities, according to the Washington-based Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.

American accusations of Beijing interfering with its patrols that aim to guarantee freedom of navigation have raised fears of a full-blown clash at sea, as both countries are mired in a deepening war of words over issues ranging from trade to actions taken during the coronavirus pandemic.

Asian security analyst Lucio Blanco Pitlo III said Duterte probably still saw the alliance with the US as "important in safeguarding his country's interests and countering China's burgeoning influence, given the power asymmetry between Manila and Beijing."

Photo link: https://i.insider.com/554b39bbecad04...jpeg&auto=webp
A Philippine sailor loads a .50-caliber machine gun during Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT), a joint US-Philippine naval exercise, in the South China Sea, June 29, 2014.

Diplomats from Manila and Washington had tried to salvage the agreement, he added, noting that there were intractable issues to be resolved despite closer ties between both defence establishments.

"One perennial point of contention is Manila's desire to have jurisdiction over US servicemen should any of them get involved in crimes while in the country. Hence, the suspension will buy more time for negotiations," Pitlo said.

There are several hundred joint exercises between the US and the Philippines every year. Last year, both sides agreed to hold 281 joint drills, up from 261 the previous year.

However, there are far fewer exercises between the Philippines and China. In January this year, Manila and Beijing staged their first joint coastguard drills in the South China Sea.

In 2018, the Philippines joined a regional military exercise involving China and other Asean countries. The drill was said to be Manila's first military exercise with Beijing.

Derek Grossman, senior defence analyst at the Rand Corporation, a Washington think tank, said: "In the end, Duterte could still terminate the VFA. But it is certainly a promising sign that Manila values the agreement enough to keep it around. It demonstrates that the Philippines believes security ties with the US are essential to deter China."

Research fellow Collin Koh Swee Lean at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore said Manila's intention for greater defence self-reliance had been affected by the sharp increases in the Philippine national debt and a ballooning budget deficit due to increased spending on its coronavirus response.

"This means that in the foreseeable future, there will be a degree of adverse effect on Philippine defence spending which might affect not only the army's planned acquisitions and modernisation plans, but also the readiness of existing forces," Koh said. "So keeping the VFA, for now at least, will serve as a form of insurance."

Regional relief

Analysts say countries in the region would likely be relieved by the Philippines' decision, as it meant the US military presence would not be adversely affected for now.

Koh said: "This is important, given that regional governments have their hands full tackling the pandemic."

"It'd also send a credible signal to Beijing that Manila is concerned about South China Sea issues and will remind China to refrain from further escalation."

The situation seems to be the most fraught for Vietnam and China, with Hanoi being the most vocal of Asean countries in opposing Beijing's claims.

In recent weeks, media reports have suggested its government is mulling over legal arbitration, similar to how the Philippines in 2013 filed a case against China at The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

The 2016 ruling clarified that the Philippines had rights to its energy reserves within its exclusive economic zone but Beijing has refused to recognise the ruling.

Grossman said the VFA, which allows the US to forward troops and military equipment at designated Philippine bases, was not essential to the success of its Indo-Pacific strategy, but was undeniably helpful.

"Without the Philippines, the US still has access to Okinawa, mainland Japan, Australia and South Korea for basing, but the Philippines is obviously closest to the South China Sea, thus enabling the speediest US response possible were there to be a military contingency," he said.

Le Hong Hiep of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore said Washington should take this opportunity to reset its strategic relations with the Philippines.

"Given China's increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea and the intensifying US-China strategic rivalry, Washington cannot afford to lose its long-time ally to Beijing at this critical juncture," he said.

But these developments did not mean China had suffered a setback, said Philippines maritime expert Jay Batongbacal, who added that Beijing had always regarded the Philippines "as being in the US corner."

"They know the Duterte playbook because it is something they also use. Duterte has been a major bonus, but they know they cannot rely on his position beyond this term," Batongbacal said.

"Cooperation will continue, but only to the point sufficient for China to gain or maximise its own objectives and benefits."

Dai Fan, director of the Centre for Philippine Studies at Jinan University in Guangzhou, said even though China was disappointed with the reversal, many Chinese policymakers knew right from the start that any talk about detaching the Philippine military from the US was not to be taken seriously.

Pointing to the pro-American former and retired military officials serving in the Duterte administration, he said: "This week's reversal does not surprise us. However, we just did not expect it to happen so soon.

"One of the factors driving this is the military, as well as Duterte's renewed deliberations on the issue. And besides, it is clear that Manila obtains immense benefits by maintaining military ties with Washington.

"Manila's embrace of Washington also fully demonstrates the deeply-entrenched influence of the US in the region. American allies in the region are likely expressing quiet elation. China still has a long way to go in replacing US leadership in this region."

Here's another link you may find interesting: https://www.businessinsider.com/beij...ne-2010-2020-6
Topic: China has been planning for a South China Sea air defense identification zone for a decade

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