Explaining the Rise in Hurricane Activity
NOAA meteorologist notes that 2005 is in the middle of an active cycle
With Hurricane Rita marking the ninth named Hurricane of the season and the number of category four and five hurricanes worldwide nearly doubling in the last 35 years, many are wondering about the reasons behind the increased storm activity.
According to Stanley Goldenberg, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is no specific reason.
"What people have to realize is that we're in a part of an active long-term cycle in hurricane activity. What happens in the Atlantic is that you have several decades of below normal activity, and then you have several decades of above normal activity," he said.
"This is a cycle we can trace back hundreds of years. Since 1995, we've been in this higher cycle of activity," Goldenberg said.
Goldenberg said that while a warmer Atlantic Ocean contributes to the additional hurricane activity, global warming isn't to blame.
"The main environmental factor is a change in ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. We're not talking about long term global warming, we're talking about a cycle that goes up and down -- a little bit warmer for a few decades and a little bit cooler for a few decades. That's really what we're seeing," he said.
Where we are currently in that cycle, according to Goldenberg, does not bode well for the Gulf and Atlantic coast states.
"We do not expect this to switch back soon. We might be in another decade or several more decades of above average activity," he said.
The only thing people can do, Goldenberg noted, is be ready for anything.
"People really need to accept and face reality with this," he said. "I hope that Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita forces emergency managers, government officials and private individuals to reexamine their hurricane preparedness efforts.
"People need to prepare for the worst, because it can happen," he said
|
09-22-2005, 03:51 PM
Similar Threads
Linear Mode
