Obama's Afghan War Plans May Run Into Weary Public, Deficits

[David]

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Staff Sergeant Brendan Kearns went through urban combat training six months ago with the U.S. Army's 10th Mountain Division, preparing for a planned return to Iraq. In January, his brigade is heading to Afghanistan instead.

While Iraq has long dominated headlines, Afghanistan will demand more immediate attention, as President-elect Barack Obama becomes the first commander-in-chief since Richard M. Nixon in 1969 to take charge during wartime.

Intensifying violence is ramping up U.S. involvement, costing money and lives when America faces a record budget deficit and the public is weary of war. Backing off may allow al-Qaeda and the Taliban to return to power.

``The most pressing problem for the next president will be the Afghan-Pakistan conundrum,'' says retired Lieutenant Colonel John Nagl, lead author of the U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual.

``A resurgent Taliban threatens stability and perhaps survival of the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It's a nightmare scenario, and we may have reached a tipping point where the Taliban is winning.''

The Bush administration is reviewing its military and humanitarian strategy in Afghanistan and will offer recommendations to Obama's transition team before he takes office Jan. 20.

Refocus Attention

On the campaign trail, the Illinois senator vowed to refocus attention there while pulling out most of the 152,000 troops in Iraq within 16 months. That's becoming increasingly possible as deadly attacks have dropped dramatically since 2007, when President George W. Bush sent 30,000 additional U.S. troops.

The surge -- along with the so-called Sunni awakening, in which tribes turned against al-Qaeda and formed U.S.-funded, government-allied militias -- is credited with stabilizing the country. The Iraqi and U.S. governments have tentatively agreed on a phased withdrawal of American combat forces by 2011, subject to conditions.

Obama, 47, has said a ``responsible drawdown'' from Iraq would allow the U.S. to upgrade military equipment, pay for veterans' care and redirect expenditures -- which currently top $10 billion a month -- to Afghanistan, where Osama bin Laden and top al-Qaeda leaders are believed to be operating along the porous border with Pakistan.

Funding Decisions

Deciding what the U.S. can afford to spend is complicated by the $700 billion the Treasury is using to rescue the financial system, which may push the federal budget deficit next year to more than $1 trillion, following a record $455 billion this year.

``I know there's a lot of economic problems in the U.S.,'' says Kearns, 40, who's based at Fort Drum, New York, and has served in both wars. ``But the military at this point doesn't need its budgets cut. With seven years of war, there's a lot of wear and tear on equipment and personnel.''

Meanwhile, the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated, with a reconstituted and emboldened Taliban mounting more attacks on American forces. Neighboring, nuclear-armed Pakistan -- threatened by domestic extremists, assassination attempts and a financial crisis -- hasn't been able to control border security in its autonomous tribal areas where militants take shelter.

General David McKiernan, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, has asked for 20,000 more American troops next year; the 3,500-person 3rd Brigade Combat Team deploying in January from Fort Drum will be the tip of that spear.

Opium Production

The view of U.S., European and United Nations officials is that more foreign soldiers won't be enough to save Afghanistan. The country needs a sustained international effort to shrink opium production, build roads and establish basic utilities including running water and electricity. The Afghan government, widely criticized as weak, corrupt and inefficient, needs to better deliver services and secure its territory.

Obama will face a balancing act with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which commands a force in Afghanistan that uses 13,000 of the 31,000 American troops now in the country. European leaders have made clear they aren't keen on sending more soldiers into a widening war.

Still, there's no doubt Afghanistan needs better security. In Iraq, there are 800,000 local, U.S. and international forces. In Afghanistan, there are at most 210,000 combined troops, and many of the Afghans lack training and equipment.

Clear, Hold, Build

``Classic counterinsurgency strategy is `Clear, Hold and Build': You clear enemy forces, you hold the area, generally with the host nation's security forces, and then you build a better society,'' Nagl says. ``In Afghanistan we have not had enough forces to hold and have not put proper emphasis on build. We've cleared the same towns over and over and over.''

Every time U.S. forces leave a village they have cleared without Afghan soldiers to take their place, ``the Taliban comes back and they shoot people who worked with us in the head,'' he says. ``After the second or third time that happens, there aren't enough people left to work with us.''

Analysts say the best solution would be to greatly expand the Afghan army, supported by U.S. military advisers, and enlist militias into something like the ``Sons of Iraq,'' which turned enemy forces into associates.

What worked in Iraq may not work in Afghanistan, however, where the terrain is rougher, the country poorer, corruption more visible and the insurgency more complicated because of hundreds of tribes -- many living in autonomous territories along the Pakistan border.

Military Strikes

Obama has consistently said that if Pakistan fails to act against militants on its soil, he would support unilateral military strikes -- something the Bush administration has already begun. In the past two months, Pakistan has accused the U.S. of launching 15 missile strikes in the Waziristan tribal area along its Afghan border, and late last month Islamabad lodged a formal protest.

Soldiers at Fort Drum say if they had the ear of the president-elect, they would tell him that while military involvement in Afghanistan is necessary, it isn't sufficient.

``We need to focus on the basics: infrastructure, food, building roads and security,'' says Captain Matthew Burnette, 29, who commands a Howitzer unit headed back to Afghanistan as Obama takes office. ``If the three villages you're working in are happy, they talk to each other, they talk to us, and the Taliban can't take hold again.''