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Old 05-20-2020, 11:29 AM
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Arrow Beware of Iran provoking the US Navy into firing on its ships

Beware of Iran provoking the US Navy into firing on its ships
By: Tom Rogan - Washington Examiner News - 05-20-20
Re: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...g-on-its-ships

Iran's threat to the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf is increasing. While it's unlikely that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will actually attack U.S. ships, there's a growing probability that the Iranian military will provoke a U.S. ship into firing on its own.

The concern precipitated President Trump's warning to Iran in April that its forces not threaten the U.S. Navy's freedom of movement in the Gulf. But there's new reason to think that Iran will test Trump's admonition.

Desperate to extract sanctions relief in order to shore up its oil export-dependent economy, Iran's plight has worsened significantly amid the coronavirus pandemic. With oil prices now at rock bottom, the government's revenue structure has been strained in two critical ways.

First, the Iranian regime is now unable to provide even the most basic healthcare and utility services to the people. That further fuels major social friction between the theocratic regime and its young population. But Iran's oil price-export collapse also constricts Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's ability to support his revolutionary apparatus. Considering the business cronyism which defines the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp, this economic pressure is causing internal frictions as well as restricting Iran's ability to export its revolution across the Middle East.

This is not to say, however, that Khamenei is sitting idle.

The supreme leader's Twitter feed is spewing unusually high levels of aggressive rhetoric. A successful recent Iranian ballistic missile test also indicates the regime's unrestrained desire to advance its strategic threat to Europe, Israel, and, over time, the United States. Even as it faces Iraq's new, nationalist-minded prime minister, Iran continues to work hard to push America out of that nation. Supervising all this is Esmail Ghaani, Qassem Soleimani's successor as the head of the Quds Force. Ghaani is determined that his organization continue in bloodletting fashion.

Still, the most pertinent complication of the moment is Iran's supply of oil to Venezuela. With Nicolas Maduro's regime under U.S. sanctions and Iran's oil exports to him worth tens of millions of dollars, the Trump administration is considering interdicting Iranian tankers on their way to Venezuela. Iran has warned it will retaliate against any seizure.

Collectively, this context explains the Pentagon's warning this week that armed vessels should not approach within 100 meters of U.S. Navy warships in the Persian Gulf. Any vessel doing so, the Pentagon says, may be "interpreted as a threat and subject to lawful defensive measures." While that guidance is prudent, there is a risk that Iran will attempt to provoke American defensive action even where its forces do not intend an actual attack.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp's modus operandi against the U.S. Navy is to launch fleets of small, highly maneuverable "go-fast" boats in swarming patterns around U.S. ships. This tactic offers the advantage of making it harder for the larger and unwieldy U.S. warships to avoid ramming attacks by ships loaded with explosives. The IRGC knows that once a speed boat traveling at 50+ knots is within 100 meters of a U.S. ship, the U.S commander has a very short window to decide what to do. Does that commander order defensive fire to protect their crew, thus risking an international incident? Or does that commander wait and hope the speed run is a feint, risking the loss of dozens of crew members?

Iran knows it cannot win a major naval showdown with the U.S. Navy, and that trying to do so would risk the destruction of its military apparatus and risk regime collapse.

Nevertheless, I fear that Iran might use a go-fast feint run on a U.S. warship in order to provoke American fire that destroys the Iranian ship, killing its crew. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp might then release a carefully edited video recording of the incident, to suggest that the U.S. acted callously and without cause. Iran would hope that such a video would encourage greater European pressure on President Trump to relieve sanctions. Or, at the very least, that such action would damage America's global standing. While U.S. Navy ships in the Gulf always record Iranian interactions at sea, there's no certainty that accurate evidence would cool an Iranian propaganda wildfire once it was lit.

Ultimately, of course, there isn't much choice for the U.S. here. U.S. commanders must protect their ships and crews, even if doing so results in an Iranian propaganda win. But in order to further mitigate that threat, President Trump should warn Iran that any such action will result in new sanctions rather than sanctions relief.
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O Almighty Lord God, who neither slumberest nor sleepest; Protect and assist, we beseech thee, all those who at home or abroad, by land, by sea, or in the air, are serving this country, that they, being armed with thy defence, may be preserved evermore in all perils; and being filled with wisdom and girded with strength, may do their duty to thy honour and glory; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

"IN GOD WE TRUST"
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