Pentagon watchdog warns exit of U.S. contractors could doom Afghan government

[Boats]

Pentagon watchdog warns exit of U.S. contractors could doom Afghan government
By: Jamie McIntyre - Snr. Writer for Washington Examiner News - 03-18-21
Re: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...han-government

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AFGHANISTAN COUNTDOWN, DAY 44: As of today, there are 44 days left before U.S. and international troops are scheduled to withdraw fully from Afghanistan under the Feb. 29, 2020, agreement negotiated with the Taliban by the Trump administration. President Biden has yet to indicate whether he will abide by the agreement or declare the Taliban to be in violation of the terms and extend the deployment of 2,500 U.S. troops, along with more than 5,000 NATO and partner forces.

IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT THE TROOPS: In testimony this week, the Pentagon’s internal watchdog over Afghanistan spending warned the withdrawal of international forces would also mean the departure of 13,000 U.S. contractors, without which “Afghanistan may be fighting for its very survival.”

The warning from John Sopko, the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction, came in sobering testimony Tuesday before a House Oversight and Reform Subcommittee hearing. “DOD estimates that no Afghan airframe can maintain combat effectiveness for more than a few months if contractor support is withdrawn,” Sopko said. “If there is no peace agreement on May 1st, the Afghan government will probably lose the capability of flying any of its aircraft.”

If the U.S. withdraws financial support as well, the Afghan government “probably would face collapse,” Sopko said. “Remember, 80% of that government [funding] comes from the United States and our donors, including salaries for the troops, money to buy fuel, money to buy bullets, et cetera. So if that happens, if you combine those three, it's a disaster for Afghanistan.”

Sopko says there are roughly 18,000 foreign contractors in Afghanistan, of which 13,000 have to leave along with U.S. troops, pursuant to the Feb. 29 agreement. The 13,000 includes about 6,000 U.S. citizens and about 7,000 or more who are non-Afghan but third-party nationals from other countries.

“Whether or not the U.S. withdraws its troops, the new administration and Congress will need to decide and whether and to what extent [the $143 billion] reconstruction will continue,” Sopko said. “It could be a very critical decision, for we must remember that it was not the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989, but the withdrawal of Soviet rubles that led to the collapse of the Afghan regime in 1992.”

BIDEN: ‘COULD HAPPEN, BUT IT IS TOUGH’: In his interview with ABC Tuesday, President Biden admitted he’s in a bind, telling George Stephanopoulos that a full withdrawal “could happen, but it is tough."

"I'm in the process of making that decision now as to when they'll leave," Biden said, putting some of the blame on the Trump administration for his no-win dilemma. “The fact is that that was not a very solidly negotiated deal that the president, the former president, worked out. And so we're in consultation with our allies as well as the government, and that decision's going to be — it's in process now."

Biden said what he called the failure to have an orderly transition from the Trump administration cost him “time and consequences.” And If the deadline is extended, he added, it won’t be by “a lot longer.”

ALL EYES ON RUSSIA: As the Taliban continues to press its advantage in Afghanistan, the focus shifts to Moscow today, where Russia is hosting the first of three international conferences aimed at re-energizing the stalled Afghanistan peace process.

Representing the U.S. at the conference is Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad, special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation, who is fresh from talks with Afghan leaders in Kabul, including President Ashraf Ghani. “I was encouraged by the fact that all political figures endorse efforts to accelerate the peace process and have agreed to attend or send delegates to upcoming international engagements for a lasting political settlement and permanent ceasefire,” he tweeted ahead of the talks.

Khalilzad will be there “to share perspectives on ways to bring about political settlement and a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire,” said State Department deputy spokeswoman Jalina Porter. “And of course, we're hopeful that the gathering will be productive.”

Next, the U.S. is hoping the United Nations will convene a conference of foreign ministers from Iran, Pakistan, India, Russia, China, and the U.S., followed by a third conference to be held in Turkey where in theory, a peace deal would be signed.

1. HAPPENING TODAY:

Secretary of State Antony Blinken flies from Seoul, South Korea, where he and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin wrapped up consultations over North Korea, to Anchorage, Alaska, where he and national security adviser Jake Sullivan will meet China’s top two diplomats.

The meeting will be a forum for each side to air their grievances and try to see if there is common ground to work together, especially on North Korea denuclearization.

“That’s an opportunity for us to very directly, face to face, share with our Chinese counterparts the concerns that the United States has, that our allies and partners have, about some of the things that China is doing,” Blinken said in an interview with TV Asahi in Japan. “And I suspect it’ll be an opportunity for China to share whatever concerns it has about us.”

In a news conference before leaving Seoul, Blinken said he’ll be pressing Chinese State Councilor Wang Yi and Communist Party foreign affairs chief Yang Jiechi to live up to their obligations to do more to convince North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to give up his nuclear and long-range missiles.

“Beijing has an interest, a clear self-interest, in helping to pursue the denuclearization of the DPRK because it is a source of instability, it's a source of danger, and obviously a threat to us and our partners,” Blinken said. “It also has an obligation under the U.N. security council resolutions to implement fully the sanctions that the international community has agreed to.”

In addition to Korea, the U.S. side plans to raise several other issues, Blinken said. “China acting more repressively at home and more aggressively abroad, including with regard to the Senkaku Islands, the South China Sea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and that’s a concern.”

Expectations for the meeting are low, but Blinken said, “It’s just important to make sure we understand each other, and in particular that our Chinese counterparts understand the concerns that we have, understand why so many countries are increasingly worried about the actions that China is taking, again, whether it’s with regard to human rights at home or some of its aggressive actions in the region.”

2. NORTH KOREA REBUFFS ‘PLAY-FOR-TIME TRICK’:

A top North Korean diplomat has confirmed the Biden administration has reached out in an attempt to restart denuclearization discussions that ended more than a year ago but said Pyongyang has no interest in talking for now.

“The U.S. has tried to contact us since mid-February through several routes, including New York,” said Choe Son Hui, North Korea’s first vice minister of foreign affairs, in a statement carried by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.

“It has recently requested to contact us by sending emails and telephone messages via various routes. Even in the evening before it started the joint military drill, it sent a message of imploring us to respond to its request through a third country,” she said.

“But we think it unnecessary to respond to its play-for-the-time trick again. We have already declared our stand that no DPRK-U.S. contact and dialogue of any kind would be possible unless the U.S. rolls back its policy hostile towards the DPRK. Therefore, we will disregard such an attempt in the future, too.”

3. MORE TROUBLE WITH TURKEY:

Turkey's efforts to dissolve the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party and strip a prominent member of the party of his seat in parliament has once again put the NATO ally sharply at odds with the U.S.

“The United States is closely following events in Turkey, including troubling moves on March 17 to strip Member of Parliament Omer Faruk Gergerlioglu of his parliamentary seat,” said a statement by State Department spokesman Ned Price. “We are also monitoring the initiation of efforts to dissolve the People’s Democratic Party, a decision that would unduly subvert the will of Turkish voters, further undermine democracy in Turkey, and deny millions of Turkish citizens their chosen representation.”

“We call on the Government of Turkey to respect freedom of expression in line with protections in the Turkish constitution and with Turkey’s international obligations,” he said.

4. BEEFING UP U.S. CYBER-DEFENSE:

Former acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf, and Dustin Carmack, research fellow with the Heritage Foundation, say it’s past time to take a more proactive approach to strengthen America's cyberdefenses in an op-ed in the Washington Examiner.

“The SolarWinds cyberespionage breach and the Hafnium zero-day attacks on Microsoft’s exchange servers should spark government officials, Congress, and the private sector to move expeditiously to address threats from these Chinese- and Russian-backed hackers,” they write. “A good place to start is to address inadequate information-sharing arrangements. It is no secret that China and Russia, along with other bad actors such as North Korea and Iran, have sought to undermine Western democracies by using our open-society and free markets against us.”

"There is nothing to be learned from the second kick of a mule,” they argue. “The old Mark Twain adage comes to mind as the United States grapples with its second major cyber kick in recent months.”

4. TODAY ON THE HILL:

The op-ed from Wolf comes as the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee holds a hearing at 10 a.m. on “Understanding and Responding to the SolarWinds Supply Chain Attack: The Federal Perspective."

Testifying will be Christopher DeRusha, federal chief information security officer in the Office of Management and Budget; Brandon Wales, acting director of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Information Security Agency; and Tonya Ugoretz, deputy assistant director for the FBI's Cyber Readiness, Outreach, and Intelligence Branch.

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More: Thursday March 18:

10:15 a.m. — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on "Understanding and Responding to the SolarWinds Supply Chain Attack: The Federal Perspective,” with Christopher DeRusha, federal chief information security officer in the Office of Management and Budget; Brandon Wales, acting director of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Information Security Agency; and Tonya Ugoretz, deputy assistant director for the FBI's Cyber Readiness, Outreach, and Intelligence Branch. http://www.hsgac.senate.gov

11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee hearing on "Unmanned Systems of the Department of the Navy,” with Acting Assistant Navy Secretary for Research, Development & Acquisition Jay Stefany; Navy Vice Adm. James Kilby, deputy chief of naval operations; and Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Eric M. Smith, commanding general of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command Headquarters. http://www.armedservices.house.gov Livestream at https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

9:15 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army 2021 Global Force Next event, with Gen. Edward Daly, commanding general, Army Materiel Command, providing keynote remarks at 12 noon. https://www.ausa.org/events/global-force-next

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual book discussion on Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the 21st Century, with author Josh Rogin, columnist at the Washington Post; and Kenneth Weinstein, fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events

1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual event: “Maintaining the Momentum: U.S.-India Relations Under the Biden Administration,” with Kenneth Juster, former U.S. ambassador to India, Richard Verma, former U.S. ambassador to India; Richard Fontaine, CNAS CEO; and Lisa Curtis, Director of the CNAS Indo-Pacific Security Program. https://www.cnas.org/events/special

1:30 p.m. — Nextgov, Defense One and Route Fifty webinar: “The Roadmap to Modernization,” with Stephen Russell, chief of the U.S. Combat Capabilities Development Command's Information Sciences Division. https://roadmapseries.nextgov.com/agenda/

1:30 p.m. — The Hill webinar: The Future of Modern Expeditionary Warfare,” with Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn.; Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; retired Rear Adm. Sinclair Harris, former commander of the U.S. Naval Forces Southern Command; David Forster, chairman of the Amphibious Warship Industrial Base Coalition; and Steve Clemons, editor-at-large at The Hill. https://thehill.com/event

2:45 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “Congressional Perspectives on the Future of the Navy,” with Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis.; Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va.; and retired Vice Adm. Peter Daly, CEO of the U.S. Naval Institute. https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue

4 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “China and the Weaponization of Information," with retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation; Lesley Seebeck, professor at Australian National University; Nina Kollars, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College; Peter Jennings, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute; and Patrick Cronin, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events

6:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual book discussion on 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, with co-authors retired Adm. James Stavridis and Elliot Ackerman; and former Undersecretary of Defense Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing director of WestExec Advisers. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

FRIDAY | MARCH 19

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council, the Norwegian Ministry of Defense, and the Royal Norwegian Embassy virtual conference: “Looking North: Security in the Arctic,” with Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ine Eriksen Soreide; and Norwegian Minister of Defense Frank Bakke-Jensen https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar on "the latest situation on the Korean peninsula,” with retired Adm. Harry Harris, former U.S. Pacific Commander and U.S. ambassador to South Korea. https://www.csis.org/events/korea-ch...pital-cable-22

9:30 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar “Revitalizing America's Alliances,” with Rep. Andy Kim, D-N.J.; Zack Cooper, research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States' Paris office; Sara Bjerg Moller, assistant professor at Seton Hall University; Tanvi Madan, senior fellow at the Project on International Order and Strategy; and Victor Cha, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.brookings.edu/events/rev...icas-alliances

12 p.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual discussion: “NIST (National Institute for Standards and Technology) Standards for CMMC (cybersecurity maturity model certification),” with Katie Arrington, special assistant to the assistant Defense secretary of acquisition for cyber; and Ron Ross, NIST computer scientist and fellow. https://www.afcea.org/event

1:30 p.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Remembering the First 'Space War,'" focusing on Operation Desert Storm in 1991, with Air Force Lt. Gen. B. Chance Saltzman, U.S. Space Force Deputy Chief of Space Operations, Cyber and Nuclear. https://www.brookings.edu/events/rem...irst-space-war

TUESDAY | MARCH 23

7 a.m. EDT/12 p.m. CET — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken attends NATO foreign ministers two-day meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s news conference will be streamed live https://www.nato.int

9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nomination of Adm. John Aquilino to be commander, United States Indo-Pacific Command. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

2 p.m. — Gold Institute for International Strategy webinar: “Turkey - Repairing the Relationship with the West,” with retired British Brig Gen. Geoffrey Van Orden CBE, Gold Institute distinguished fellow; Soner Cagaptay, director, Turkey Research Program, Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Walid Phares, foreign policy advisor to Republican presidential candidates; Matthew Brodsky*, Gold Institute senior fellow; and Nahro Zagros, Gold Institute senior fellow, vice president of Soran University in Kurdistan region of Iraq. https://docs.google.com/forms

3 p.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Learning From and Preventing Future Training Mishaps,” with Gen. Joseph Martin, Army vice chief of staff; Adm. William Lescher, vice chief of naval operations; Gen. David Allvin, Air Force vice chief of staff; Gen. Gary Thomas, assistant commandant of the Marine Corps. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 24

11 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual discussion: “Lessons from New START and the Road Ahead for Nuclear Arms Control.” with Rose Gottemoeller, former undersecretary of state, arms control and international security; and CSPC Board Chairman Amb. Thomas Pickering, former undersecretary of state for political affairs and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Russia, India, Israel and Jordan. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “North Korean Threat Perception and the US-South Korea Alliance: Political-Military Dimensions,” with retired Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, former U.S. Korea commander; retired South Korean Lt. Gen. In Bum Chun; Andrei Lankov, director, NK News, professor, Kookmin University; Evans J.R. Revere, former deputy chief of mission and charge d'affaires, U.S. Embassy, Seoul. https://www.hudson.org/events

FRIDAY | MARCH 26

11 a.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations hearing: “SOF Culture and Climate: The Future of the Force,” with Linda Robinson, director, Center for Middle East Public Policy, RAND Corporation; retired Army Lt. Gen. Mike Nagata, senior vice president and strategic adviser, CACI International Inc.; retired Marine Lt. Col. Kate Germano; Mark Mitchell, former acting assistant secretary of defense special operations and low intensity conflict. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

3 p.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Installation Resiliency: Lessons Learned from Winter Storm Uri and Beyond,” with Lt. Gen. Douglas Gabram, commanding general, Army Installation Management Command; Vice Adm. Yancy Lindsey, commander, Navy Installations Command; Maj. Gen. Edward Banta, commander, Marine Corps Installations Command; and Brig. Gen. John Allen, commander, Air Force Materiel Command. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

WEDNESDAY I MARCH 31

12:30 p.m. — Hampton Roads World Affairs Council Virtual Symposium virtual panel discussion: “Stronger Together: Perspectives on Strengthening the Alliance,” with the current and three former commanders of Allied Command Transformation, including French Air Force Gen. Andre Lanata; Retired French Air Force Gen. Denis Mercier, retired Marine Gen. Jim Mattis, and retired Adm. Ed Giambastiani, ACT’s first commander.