A new NATO offensive posture must deter Russian nuclear missile forces

[Boats]

A new NATO offensive posture must deter Russian nuclear missile forces
BY: Tom Rogan - Washington Examiner - 7-6-19
RE: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...missile-forces

Russia's aggressive nuclear and missile force posture threatens NATO's credibility as an alliance. But more and improved missile defense forces won't address that threat. What's needed is NATO's clearer and improved offensive doctrine.

But as the New York Times noted on Friday, NATO is overly focused on the defensive angle. It wants more missile defenses stationed in more European nations. That might sound good, but it's false security.

Russian President Vladimir Putin won't be deterred by missile defense systems that won't be able to shoot down all of his missiles. Instead, Russia will only increase its missile stockpile to retain its ability to overwhelm missile defense systems.

So what should NATO do?

Well, for a start, alliance leaders must recognize that NATO's power rests not simply in joining individual nations in mutual benefit, but in fostering fear in its adversaries.

That means Russia must always know NATO is ready to fight for the win. This is an especially time-sensitive concern in that Russian strategy plots to split the alliance in the early stages of any conflict. More specifically, Russia believes that employing low-yield nuclear weapons would allow it to scare Germany and smaller NATO powers into a favorable cease-fire at the outset of any conflict.

The question, then, is how NATO can disabuse Russian leaders of this idea. And the answer is for NATO's three nuclear powers, America, Britain, and France, to take two new actions.

First, delivering a clear statement that any Russian use of limited-yield nuclear weapons will result in an immediate and commensurate nuclear retaliation against Russian forces. The U.S. is rightly developing lower-yield nuclear warheads to plug this gap. But the Russians must also be made aware that their large scale use of low-yield nuclear weapons will meet NATO counterforce via standard U.S., British, and French nuclear arsenals. Russia will be far less likely to use nuclear weapons if it believes that doing so will invite nuclear retaliation.

This is something NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been reluctant to accept. He must change course.

NATO must also improve its conventional weapons portfolio. Russian strategy for an invasion of NATO territory is centered on rapidly establishing air defense strongholds that can block NATO forces from retaking alliance territory in short order.

Again, the Russians believe that such strongholds would allow them to split NATO by offering a cease-fire in the short days following an initial offensive. To counter that understanding, NATO needs longer-range artillery and conventional missile capabilities and greater air power that can penetrate and destroy the Russian strongholds at the earliest possibility.

The key here is that Putin is not going to be deterred by things he can ignore. He is going to be deterred by things he cannot confidently contest. NATO must thus ensure Putin knows the alliance can beat him at his own game.