Shaken Hamas still in control of Gaza

[David]

AP


GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip - "Scatter!" the Hamas police chief ordered his black-bearded officers at the sound of an aircraft, fearing they'd become the latest casualties in the deadly confrontation with Israel.

Hamas policemen, the emblem of eight months of Islamic militant control of Gaza, are on edge and on the move these days. Worried about Israeli missiles, they mostly roam the streets away from their compounds.

Israel's pounding of Gaza has taken a toll on the politicians as well: The once media-friendly Hamas Cabinet has been meeting in secret and Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh hasn't been sighted since late January, breaking his routine of leading weekly prayers at a local mosque.

Yet despite such jitters and an eight-month blockade of Gaza, there are no signs Hamas rule is about to collapse. The Islamic militants face no serious internal opposition, and despite repeated threats, Israel appears reluctant to carry out a broad military operation to topple the group.

An entrenched Hamas could spoil President Bush's hopes for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal in 2008, since Israel has said it cannot implement a deal while Hamas rules Gaza.

Hamas' current state — shaken, but in control and with little to lose — might explain some of its brazen actions of recent weeks, such as toppling the border wall with Egypt and keeping up rocket barrages on Israel.

Hamas has portrayed the border breach as a spontaneous act and the rockets as self defense. Yet by keeping up trouble along Gaza's borders, Hamas also might be trying to pressure its neighbors into interim agreements — a prisoner swap and a cease-fire with Israel, and an orderly border crossing with Egypt.

Either of those deals would imply some recognition of Hamas and prolong its rule.

The Islamic militants also count on indirect help from the international community, which has shown growing concern for the suffering of 1.4 million Gazans, a result of border closures imposed after the violent Hamas takeover in June.

"In the next few months, there will be pressure from the world community toward the Israeli government to ease the tensions and to end the siege," predicted Hamas intellectual Ahmed Yousef.

Calls for a new Gaza arrangement have been getting louder.

This week, visiting French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner urged Hamas and Israel to work out a truce, and said Gaza's borders must be reopened. The top U.N. humanitarian affairs official, John Holmes, said he was shocked by "grim and miserable" conditions in Gaza, where 75 percent of the population depends on food handouts.

Israel, Abbas and Egypt each have their own reasons for considering a deal with Hamas.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is under intense pressure at home to halt daily rocket fire from Gaza on Israel and free an Israeli soldier held for the past 20 months by Hamas-allied militants.

Olmert has been talking with Hamas, via Egypt, about a prisoner swap. Israel's generals are divided over whether a swap should be linked to a cease-fire, with some warning a truce will only strengthen Hamas.

Meanwhile, some heavyweights in Israel's security establishment are calling for direct talks with Hamas. Such calls were once unthinkable given Hamas' history of launching suicide bombings in Israel and its calls for Israel's destruction.

But government critics say the current Gaza policy has led to the worst possible outcome: limited airstrikes and gradual fuel and power cuts have not halted rocket fire, while inviting condemnation of Israel.

Giora Eiland, a former national security adviser, said Israel should give Hamas a clear choice: either work out a cease-fire and a prisoner swap in exchange for secure supplies from Israel or face Gaza's complete isolation and an air blitz not just against rocket squads, but also Hamas political leaders.

Abbas, despite his loathing of Hamas, can't be seen as ignoring the suffering of Gazans if he wants to be considered the president of all Palestinians, not just ruler of the West Bank. He has offered to deploy his men as buffers at Gaza's crossings to allow the borders with Israel and Egypt to reopen.

Egypt, meanwhile, has met with Hamas leaders in recent days to discuss a possible border arrangement, despite threats that it would break the bones of any Gazan trying to enter Egypt again — as hundreds of thousands did during a 12-day Hamas-engineered border breach last month.

The breach boosted Hamas' popularity and enabled it to bring in more weapons and badly needed cash to keep the government going. When borders are closed, Hamas imports essentials through smuggling tunnels.

The recent cash injection has allowed Hamas to make a new round of welfare payments of $100 each to thousands of unemployed workers. Some complained it was the first payment in almost a year, and that they were struggling to feed their families.

But a brief show of discontent in November — at a protest rally drawing a quarter of a million people — has fizzled, and supporters of Abbas' Fatah movement are largely demoralized.

Hamas, meanwhile, is trying to send a message of business as usual despite its jumpiness.

Gaza City Police Chief Col. Yousef Zahar, brother of Gaza's Hamas strongman Mahmoud Zahar, said despite being nervous since Israel hit a station two weeks ago without warning, killing eight officers, his men keep showing up for work.

"From the biggest officer, to the last policeman, we are not afraid," he said.